UPDATE: Democrat Ben McAdams Retakes Lead Over Rep. Mia Love
Who will win Utah’s 4th district?
*UPDATE 11:56PM: Ben McAdams now leads by 739 votes.
*UPDATE 2:43PM: Love now has a lead of 1,516 votes over her Democrat challenger.
Rep. Mia Love (R-UT) has pulled ahead as officials continue to count votes for the race for Utah’s 4th Congressional District.
From The Salt Lake Tribune:
Rep. Mia Love widened her lead over Democratic challenger Ben McAdams on Monday after a morning update from Utah County.
Love, a two-term Republican congresswoman, is current winning the race by 1,516 votes, or 0.58 percentage points, outside the margin for a recount in Utah’s 4th Congressional District.
Counties must certify their election results by Tuesday, and thousands of votes remain outstanding in Salt Lake County, where McAdams has so far captured a majority of votes. But since jumping ahead on Election Day, McAdams has seen Love steadily bite into and ultimately reverse his winning margin.
*Previous reporting….
The latest tally has Love up by 419 votes over Democrat Ben McAdams. She previously trailed by 1,169 votes.
BREAKING NEWS: @MiaBLove now leads @BenMcAdams in the #UT4 race with the latest numbers posted by SL, Utah County clerks. @fox13 #utpol pic.twitter.com/ATYg73j9Gz
— Ben Winslow (@BenWinslow) November 16, 2018
The lead comes after President Donald Trump bashed her for losing the election because she didn’t show him any love or embraced him.
However, Love never really lost because officials decided the race was too close to ever call.
The Salt Lake Tribune reported that provisional ballots is the only way for McAdams to regain the lead:
This is the first year Utah has had same-day voter registration, and in Salt Lake County, at least, about 9,000 of the 16,373 provisional ballots they have to count came from those same-day voters.
The bigger question is who will provisional ballots favor? There is a strong case to be made that they will favor McAdams.
Studies have shown that, nationwide, voters who cast provisional ballots tend to be younger and often minorities — those groups tend to vote for Democrats.
And in Utah, people who register on the day of the election are also likely to be first-time voters, meaning they are more likely to be young people. What brings them to the polls for the first time? Likely not the candidates, but the ballot provisions — especially Proposition 2, the medical marijuana initiative — that spiked turnout across the state.
But the publication admits that it’s hard to tell which way it will go “because Love so far has been beating McAdams three-to-one in Utah County returns.” The Salt Lake Tribune continued:
So here’s my thinking: McAdams has a floor on the Salt Lake County provisionals that is probably 54 percent. His ceiling could conceivably be in the low 60s, but I think something around 58 percent is more likely. (As it happens, he got 58 percent of the Salt Lake County votes reported Friday.)
Love will likely still see numbers hold around 75 percent out of the Utah County provisionals, and possibly drop a couple points (she got 72 percent of Friday’s Utah County report).
Net result: If we estimate that about 2,900 of the outstanding Utah County provisionals are in the 4th District and if Love gets 72 percent, she’ll gain 1,276 votes there, bringing the margin to a daunting 1,695.
In other words, McAdams needs 59% of the provisional ballots in Salt lake County.
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Comments
Trump’s welcome tweet when she wins is going to be interesting. Attempting to get her on board with his initiatives after his previous flame against her is going to be much more interesting. Hopefully people understand that it’s all part of the show.
Mia Love became Mia McLove. Ugh.
Hopefully this squish understands the chance she got to redeem herself, and she finds a mentor less disgusting than that rat Paul Ryan.
If she has an ounce more intelligence than even Airhead Cortez, she’ll take mentoring from a winner like PDJT, not a corrupt weasel like Ryan.
“This is the first year Utah has had same-day voter registration,…”
That is their 1st mistake. Same day registration is a process tailor-made for voter fraud.
“The bigger question is who will provisional ballots favor?”
That is their 2nd mistake. The bigger question is how many of these voters are legally able to vote in Utah, and specifically, the precinct in which they cast that vote.
Trump can be a turd on twitter. Who knew??
“Trump can be a turd on twitter. Who knew??”
We don’t have to like it to realize Trump knows how to work it. The signal is clear: Trash me and don’t expect my help unless I need you.
She is a traitor to the people who elected her
Apparently 900K Utah voters disagree with you.
Not at all. All it means is that a good chunk of voters prefer a traitor to a Democrat.
Not quite sure how it works in Utah, but here (AFAIK) we have a two-level provisional ballot examination:
1) Is this a legit voter?
2) Did they vote where they should have?
So if Bob is not a resident of the state, his ballot gets tossed. If Bob is a state resident, but voted in the wrong precinct, his votes *for races that he otherwise would have been able to vote for* are counted, but the rest thrown out. So if he voted for governor, senator, and local dogcatcher, the first two would count and the last would be most probably tossed.
As with all votes, they don’t count provisionals unless they would make a difference, i.e. if there are 500 provisionals and the closest race is 1000 votes off, there’s no need to count them.
Ludmya “Mia” Love – the U.S. Representative for Utah’s 4th congressional district since election in 2014 [and the first black female Republican elected to Congress] – who lost her first shot at the brass ring in 2012 and then won her election on her second shot by riding the coattails of the Tea Party to victory then promptly joined the Congressional Black Caucus as her very first official act immediately after her swearing in, and then subsequently voted to keep John Boehner as House Speaker [in spite of vast Republican and Republican-leaning Independent efforts to unseat Boehner] as her second official act, and then she basically just sat on her hands voting with the RINOs while caucusing with the CBC for the remainder of her time thus far. Other than self-serving easy pickings, Mia Love has no real accomplishments at all. None in 4-years.
Mia Love had even campaigned on and pledged to work to repeal and replace ObamaCare, yet Mia Love immediately voted in favor of John Boehner who had already indicated well in advance of the Speaker-ship vote that he would indeed work to retain and fund ObamaCare, and thusly led the House effort to fund the socialism-based health care law through a budget deal worked out with President Barack Hussein Obama.
So, you know, goody goody gumdrops. *pffffft* Whatever. ¯|_(ツ)_/¯
Kind of like Ilhan Omar
https://forward.com/news/national/414050/muslim-trailblazer-ilhan-omar-admits-she-backs-bds-now-that-election-is/
I would like to see her retain that seat, but it won’t change which party runs the House. The left is not going to be slowed down one iota if she wins, and while she had talked a decent game, she apparently hasn’t walked the walk. Disappointing, and that might be why she is in such a close race.
I don’t really care if she wins or loses at this point. It might open the door to a better choice for Republicans if she loses… just saying.
The bigger question is who will provisional ballots favor? There is a strong case to be made that they will favor McAdams.
That’s pretty funny stuff there. Especially when one considers the probability that any ballots considered in future will favor Al Franken.
When so many Republicans in house races led on election night, with strong Republican turnout in the early vote, who then lost after prolonged counting, I’ve puzzled over Mia Love’s resurgence in Utah and what that means for the honesty of elections in other states.
Specifically, Utah is predominantly Mormon/LDS, who are in my experience hard-working, honest and God-fearing people. Might Utah be an indicator of what COULD have happened in other House races had there been no shenanigans in the counting?
Sessions was getting right on it, before he wasn’t.
Yes. Whenever you see dramatic changes in voting in late ballots versus the general ballots, you should question the votes and vote counters. The exception is military votes (which usually only come in numbers in presidential elections) These tend to be pro-defense). These dramatic changes in voting behavior are extremely suspicious. Literally between 5-1 and 2-1 in the Democrats favor, in numbers that mean nearly half the voters in some districts were provisional, which means they were either in the wrong place or had the wrong identification required.
(and of course given these numbers, the same persons voting in multiple polling places is surely a possibility. electric bills are not hard to duplicate)
This article caught my eye about likely fraud in the Orange County house elections: https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018/11/voter-fraud-orange-county-numbers-dont-add-up-democrats-had-300000-more-votes-for-congressional-seats-than-for-governor/
Federal government needs to design their own standardized ballot for all presidential, senate and house elections. Serialized ballots – water-marked or ID’d like the new currency to prevent counterfeiting, etc.
This is ridiculous. Win or lose, it’s like we live in a Third World country. It’s 2 weeks after an election and we’re still counting votes?
Thank goodness. She is a solid voice for the unborn. I think she is a good person.
How do you know? Read Flatfoot’s post above. If she is willing to blatantly lie about those positions, maybe she’s lying about supporting life as well.
Not sure why some of these counties take so long. And clearly the provisional voting system is failing remarkably. In Orange county, we now have 300,000 votes more for 5 House races than the governors race on the same ballot. And the vast majority were absentee and provisional ballots being counted long after the election was over, and dramatically different in 4 races than the general vote counted in the normal manner. This reeks of fraud and a designed effort to flood these votes in the system. An audit is needed on every one of these races. A full on telephone and documents audit after the obviously legitimate votes are separated.
My recollection of the Dem primary in CA it was provisional ballots given to all the young Bernie voters, which when NOT counted delivered the state to Hillary.
I imagine you’ve read the same Gateway Pundit article I posted above? That OC mess is surely fraud. Will anything be done about it though? It will only make it harder to flip the house back R in 2020 if it goes unchallenged.
No great loss either way. She joined the boehner-ryan contingent.
People, people, remember: Mia Love has been/is/and probably always will be a Romney Client TM. So her return to DC would immediately bolster Romney. Is that what you want? Not me.
We already lost the house and she is a Uni-party voter. What difference, at this point, does it make?
Quick! Now that Mia Love is behind she needs to do what all Vichy Republicans do in her situation:
– Surrender as fast as possible.
– Blame Trump for her wishy-washy losing campaign.
A guest appearance on MSNBC and a possible book contract are in the balance, Mia!
Democrats will continue to win 100% of these.
What a farce.
They cheat, we let them and then pretend the election was fair.