Ballotpedia Report Crashes Democrats Hopes for an Actual Blue Wave
Democrats need to win twice as many House seats in order to qualify for an actual wave.
The Democrats are desperate to crash the House and Senate in November, taunting the right that a blue wave is coming their way. Do they even know what is considered a wave in elections?
I guess not because analysis from Ballotpedia shows the Democrats that it’s not just taking over the House and Senate. In order for an actual wave to happen, the Democrats have to win a lot more seats than they need to control Congress.
The Data
Ballotpedia examined “results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016. The evidence resulted in the researchers concluding that these wave elections are “the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president’s party.”
This means that the Democrats need to win “48 U.S. House seats, seven U.S. Senate seats, seven gubernatorial seats, and 494 state legislative seats” in November.
Via Ballotpedia
Report author spoke to The Washington Free Beacon:
Robert Oldham, a staff writer on Ballotpedia’s Marquee Team and one of the report’s authors, told the Washington Free Beacon there is a reason why wave elections are not a frequent occurrence in American politics.
“We were working from the idea that if waves can be defined, and that’s a big if, they should be significant and relatively rare historical events,” Oldham said. “We looked at the last 100 years of election data and found that 1 in 5 elections [can be deemed] waves.”
Congress
In the 50 elections Ballotpedia looked at, a wave only occurred only 11 times. Under Republican President Herbert Hoover in 1930, the GOP lost 97 seats. The Democrats lost 48 seats in 1966 under Democrat President President Lyndon Johnson. The GOP flipped 63 seats in 2010 in President Barack Obama’s first term.
Via Ballotpedia
The Democrats need seven Senate seats for their wave. Ballotpedia found that a “president’s party lost seven or more U.S. Senate seats in 10 of the 48 Senate elections since 1918.”
GOP presidents Calvin Coolidge, Herbert Hoover, and Ronald Reagan lost seats. Hoover lost a further 13 seats in 1932.
Via Ballotpedia
Now if the Democrats want a blue wave then November is the time to do it because the majority of the actual waves that happened took place in a president’s first term:
Wave elections occur disproportionately in first and second midterm elections.
First midterm elections account for 30 percent of elections since 1918, but they comprise more than 30 percent of wave elections for the U.S. House (54.6 percent), gubernatorial races (72.7 percent), state legislatures (40.0 percent), and composite scores (50.0 percent).
Second midterm elections account for 18 percent of elections since 1918, but they comprise more than 18 percent of wave elections for the U.S. Senate (30.0 percent), state legislatures (30.0 percent), and composite scores (20.0 percent).
Presidential elections account for 50 percent of elections since 1918, but they comprise less than 50 percent of wave elections for the U.S. House (18.2 percent), U.S. Senate (30.0 percent), gubernatorial races (18.2 percent), state legislatures (30.0 percent), and composite scores (30.0 percent).
The chart below compares each election type’s representation among the 10 or 11 wave elections to the election type’s representation among all 50 elections (which is listed in the top row). Percentages for Election type, House waves, and Senate waves do not add to 100 percent because Franklin Roosevelt had a third midterm election in 1942 where House and Senate waves occurred.
Via Ballotpedia
Can the Democrats at Least Make a Dent?
The Washington Free Beacon said the midterms on paper “seem to favor the Democratic Party,” especially since 60 GOP House members have announced their retirement. These moves mean the GOP needs “to defend 50 open seats this cycle, compared to 20 for the Democrats.”
The map on The Cook Political Report looks like the GOP shouldn’t have too much of a problem defending the House:
Via The Cook Political Report
The Cook Political Report published its House At-A-Glance report on June 27. A few I found interesting:
Rep. Martha McSally (R) in Arizona’s 2nd District is running for Senate and the report has her seat leaning Democrats.
Rep. Jeff Dunham (R) in California’s 10th District is a tossup.
Rep. Darrell Issa (R) in California’s 49th District leans Democrat.
Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R) in Florida’s 26th District is a toss up while the district of his colleague Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) leans Democrat.
Rep. Rick Nolan (D) in Minnesota’s 8th District is a tossup.
Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R) in New Jersey’s 2nd District is likely Democrat.
Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen (R) in New Jersey’s 11th district leans Democrat.
Pennsylvania’s 5th, 6th, and 7th District has a GOP representative, but the report has the first two as likely Democrat and the other as lean Democrat.
Rep. Conor Lamb (D) in Pennsylvania’s 14th District is likely Republican.
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The Democrat Party,
https://www.lewrockwell.com/1970/01/ralph-raico/when-fascism-came-to-america/
Chapter 1: Early Years
Chapter 2: 1905—1914
Chapter 3: 1914—1916
Chapter 4: 1916—1918
Chapter 5: End of the War; 1920 Campaign
Chapter 6: 1924 Campaign; 1928 Campaign — Roosevelt Becomes Governor of New York
Chapter 7: Governor Roosevelt: 1928—1932
Chapter 8: The 1932 Campaign — Roosevelt Is Elected President of the United States
Chapter 9: First Inaugural Address; He Closes the Banks
Chapter 10: Roosevelt Seizes the Country’s Gold; the NRA and Fascism
Chapter 11: Making America Over and the Communist u201CIdealu201D
Chapter 12: Recognizing the USSR; the Affinity for Dictatorship; the CCC
If the Party of Satan were to merely win the House and Senate by a slim margin, that the outcome didn’t represent a “Blue Wave” would be cold comfort.
Lemmings are a kind of short tailed vole, a mouse-like rodent that favors tundra and open grasslands. Three kinds are found in Alaska, including the collared lemming, the only rodent that turns white in winter (seasonal white privilege).
In 1958 Walt Disney produced “White Wilderness,” part of the studio’s “True Life Adventure” series. “White Wilderness” featured a segment on lemmings, detailing their strange compulsion to commit mass suicide.
I thought there was a rabbit that turned white during winter.
Will there be a blue ice age?
Maybe the democrats can ask Peter Fonda to make more leftist advocacy ads.
Six months from now, I sincerely hope to hear some Dem pol say:
“We lost fewer seats in the House and Senate than we expected, so we’re counting that as a win.”
That would be spectacular, and the leftists heads will explode, Maxine will be taken out by some means, maybe sex scandal where she groped an intern, Nancy will probably be forced to retire due to health reasons, Schumer will pretend it means nothing and that they have a mandate, well, because they are the true voice of America.
Please Conservative pundits quit pi$$ing yourselves about a Blue Wave because Democrats are wising for one while doing everything they can to pi$$ off the country.
This GD “rule” that the out of power party loses seats is because SANE!! Political parties lick their wounds after a loss and move to the center.
INSANE parties like the current Progressive Democrat party tell the country how f-d up they are for not voting for them and then get the same result they did on the last election or most typically WORSE!
PLEASE QUIT USING DATA FORM PREVIOUS SANE POLITICAL ENVIRONMENTS TO PREDICT THIS ONE!
The adjectives same and political never go together. Some periods might be less crazy. But politics and especially campaign rhetoric tends more to the nitty side. I remember serious hyperbole during the Reagan era for example. And the media’s treatment of the Tea Party was way over the top. Very little sanity.
Democrats no longer know where the center is.
The Dems have given the Pubs so much ammo for the upcoming election that it is almost absurd. They want to rescind the tax cuts. abolish ICE and have open borders, take away all guns, have Medicare for all, free college and abortions on demand at any time any place for all, free.
I say if the Pubs cannot win against that platform then they should lose!
I’m seeing a “Nixon 49 States” type election.
I think Rs will be picking off “safe” D seats.