I know you wanted the Official Legal Insurrection Victory Dance, or at least a little celebratory dance.  But as mentioned earlier in the night, this district was heavily Jewish and Asian, so we will go to song:

And Tweet of Night:

 

Turner speech — Mr. President, people are unhappy with economy and Israel policy.  “Heed us, I am the messenger”

12:06 NY1 TV says Dems did very well in local races in contrast to Congressional race, more proof the NY-09 race had national implications.

12:02 a.m. – Democrat Weprin on TV – refuses to concede, says we don’t know where the votes came from, still a long night and absentee ballots.  (Earlier in night news reporter said only about 3000 absentee ballots)

11:57 AP Calls Race for Turner (so does NY1 TV station)

Results -

Precincts reporting 435/512

Turner (R) 53%
Weprin (D) 46%

As of 11:40, Turner is outperforming in both Queens and Brooklyn, and Brooklyn is slow to come in and should be big for Turner.

For what it’s worth, Nate Silver says “#NY09 over/under line: Weprin (D) would need about 54%
of the votes in Queens precincts, 42% in Brooklyn precincts, to tie Turner” (h/t reader Chuck)
(R)

Pre-Poll Closing Chatter

The special election in NY-09 should be interesting.  We’ll track the results as they come in.  Polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern.  (There’s also a special election in NV-02 – not sure if I’ll stay up for that but feel free to post results in the comments).  Results will be drawn from the NY Board of Elections and AP sites (h/t Steve), also #NY09 and @HotlineJess who is at Turner (R) HQ.

This race should be a piece of cake for Democrats in a district which has several times more registered Democrats than Republicans (it’s the former seat held by Geraldine Ferraro and Chuck Schumer), except for three things (1) the lingering stain of Anthony “Breitbart hacked my Twitter” Weiner, and (2) a relatively weak Democratic candidate.  The third factor (3)  is the Jewish vote and the way in which Ed Koch and others have put Obama’s Israel policy on trial.

This is a referendum on Obama’s Middle East policy, which unleashed the anti-Semitic and anti-Israel “Arab Street,” coddled the buffoonish but dangerous anti-Israel Prime Minister of Turkey, and has isolated Israel at almost every step through wishful thinking.

The NY-09 district has a substantial (I’ve seen estimates of up to 30%) Jewish population many of whom are religious, in contrast to Reform Judaism, which has become a marketing wing of the Democratic Party (I can say that with certainty because I used to be one of them and I became sick of Reform Rabbis turning the pulpit into political stumps).  So I would not be too quick to extrapolate any results to the larger Jewish population, as to whom I remain skeptical.  Matt Knee had more on this earlier today.

[added:  The district also is about 15% Asian, which may not have much significance, except for a reason you will find out here if, and only if, Turner wins.]

This also puts Obama’s economic policies on trial.  That a slam-dunk Democratic district even is in play says everything about the mood of voters.

In case you were wondering, no matter what happens with the vote, my prediction has come true as Glenn Thrush of Politico already has announced the poor Democratic showing means nothing:

 
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