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NY-09 Results (AP Calls Race for Republican)(Victory Song and Tweet of Night added)

NY-09 Results (AP Calls Race for Republican)(Victory Song and Tweet of Night added)

I know you wanted the Official Legal Insurrection Victory Dance, or at least a little celebratory dance.  But as mentioned earlier in the night, this district was heavily Jewish and Asian, so we will go to song:

And Tweet of Night:

 

Turner speech — Mr. President, people are unhappy with economy and Israel policy.  “Heed us, I am the messenger”

12:06 NY1 TV says Dems did very well in local races in contrast to Congressional race, more proof the NY-09 race had national implications.

12:02 a.m. – Democrat Weprin on TV – refuses to concede, says we don’t know where the votes came from, still a long night and absentee ballots.  (Earlier in night news reporter said only about 3000 absentee ballots)

11:57 AP Calls Race for Turner (so does NY1 TV station)

Results –

Precincts reporting 435/512

Turner (R) 53%
Weprin (D) 46%

As of 11:40, Turner is outperforming in both Queens and Brooklyn, and Brooklyn is slow to come in and should be big for Turner.

For what it’s worth, Nate Silver says “#NY09 over/under line: Weprin (D) would need about 54%
of the votes in Queens precincts, 42% in Brooklyn precincts, to tie Turner” (h/t reader Chuck)
(R)

Pre-Poll Closing Chatter

The special election in NY-09 should be interesting.  We’ll track the results as they come in.  Polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern.  (There’s also a special election in NV-02 – not sure if I’ll stay up for that but feel free to post results in the comments).  Results will be drawn from the NY Board of Elections and AP sites (h/t Steve), also #NY09 and @HotlineJess who is at Turner (R) HQ.

This race should be a piece of cake for Democrats in a district which has several times more registered Democrats than Republicans (it’s the former seat held by Geraldine Ferraro and Chuck Schumer), except for three things (1) the lingering stain of Anthony “Breitbart hacked my Twitter” Weiner, and (2) a relatively weak Democratic candidate.  The third factor (3)  is the Jewish vote and the way in which Ed Koch and others have put Obama’s Israel policy on trial.

This is a referendum on Obama’s Middle East policy, which unleashed the anti-Semitic and anti-Israel “Arab Street,” coddled the buffoonish but dangerous anti-Israel Prime Minister of Turkey, and has isolated Israel at almost every step through wishful thinking.

The NY-09 district has a substantial (I’ve seen estimates of up to 30%) Jewish population many of whom are religious, in contrast to Reform Judaism, which has become a marketing wing of the Democratic Party (I can say that with certainty because I used to be one of them and I became sick of Reform Rabbis turning the pulpit into political stumps).  So I would not be too quick to extrapolate any results to the larger Jewish population, as to whom I remain skeptical.  Matt Knee had more on this earlier today.

[added:  The district also is about 15% Asian, which may not have much significance, except for a reason you will find out here if, and only if, Turner wins.]

This also puts Obama’s economic policies on trial.  That a slam-dunk Democratic district even is in play says everything about the mood of voters.

In case you were wondering, no matter what happens with the vote, my prediction has come true as Glenn Thrush of Politico already has announced the poor Democratic showing means nothing:

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Comments

This will be an interesting race. If they lose, the DNC and Obama will obviously engage in some interesting spin and downplay the results. If they win, they will engage in interesting spin and tell us how it vindicates the President and the party and demand we pass Obama’s tax/jobs bill NOW.

How exactly do you create jobs by taxing the people who hire other people? Oddly enough, that is another question the MSM won’t ask…

BTW, I really enjoyed the Petula Clark videos over the last few days…

[…] UPDATE: Prof. Jacobson is blogging the NY-09 results. “This race should be a piece of cake for Democrats in a district which has several times more […]

My respect for you and your opinions has grown greatly due to this: “I can say that with certainty because I used to be one of them and I became sick of Reform Rabbis turning the pulpit into political stumps” and the fact that you teach at Cornell in the People’s Republic of Ithaca just makes it sooooooo much better. 🙂

I saw a NY Post article which said the ballots are to be impounded when the polls close. Will that affect the reporting of results?

About Glenn Thrush’s tweet:

You’re starting to seem psychic, Professor. Dennis Miller used to have the Politico boys on his show a lot in the beginning but doesn’t any more. I can’t remember exactly how he put it, but he basically said they started to spout the Democratic Party line and they would get aggitated when he’d question them.

[…] Lots of people are watching this race. Results can be found here: “….NY Board of Elections and AP sites (h/t Steve), also #NY09 and @HotlineJess who is at Turner (R) HQ.” […]

Not to dismiss Glenn Thrush of Pollutico: But any opinion offered by Pollutico – – in a race that ends badly for the Democrat Party – -is garden-variety propaganda from a bunch of flat out progressive liars who are handmaidens of the Democrat Party.

Nice to see that there is a conservative leaning professor at Cornell, Professor Jacobson. I’m a physician in neighboring Elmira who just gave one of your fellow professors…a professor of paleontology… a verbal beating in a letter to the Elmira’s Star Gazette..in reply to his thinly guised attack piece about Governor Perry and evolution. It’s nice to see there is SOME sanity in Ithaca!

    BannedbytheGuardian in reply to livfreeordi. | September 14, 2011 at 1:17 am

    Not wishing to attack you Sir/Madame but it is the job of Paleos across the world to defend Evolution . It is not a left ideology .

      WHAT?!?!?! “It is the JOB of Paleos to DEFEND evolution”? Forgive me, but I think the JOB of a Paleo is to research, record and interpret the fossil record of life on Earth. One does not set out to “defend” a theory, but to prove or disprove it. This is the kind of thinking that fuels the AGW “debate”. The conclusion is supposed to come AFTER the research is complete. While “defenders” in both cases may turn out to be 100% correct, it is a scientist’s JOB to determine the truth, not protect a position that fits into their world view.

The DNC and Soros poured more than $600K into the race in the last couple of weeks. Clearly THEY thought it was more than nuthin’.

Notice the distinct lack of a protest vote. Only 10 out of nearly 1800 votes for the third party candidate. This is not a “pox on both houses” situation. The voters are serious and know what they want.

Glenn Thrush; whistling past the (Democrats) graveyard.

Possible NYT headlines tomorrow:
“Pay NO Attention to the Electorate Behind the Curtain!”
“Low Turnouts Yield Aberrant Temporary Republican Gains”
“Elections? What Elections?”
“Nothing Much Happening With Us. You?”

I don’t know if this is the canary in the coal mine ….honestly I don’t see how they can lose that many more seats ….* GRIN * but it would be nice if we picked up another 20 – 30 congressional seats and 10 – 12 senate seats ..a democrat would be a lot like unicorns at that point …everyone has heard of them but ain’t no one ever seen one

From a HotAir comment: Dave Wasserman of Cook Political Report: #I’ve seen enough, it’s done…now very comfortable making this projection: Bob Turner (R) defeats David Weprin (D) in ##

http://hotair.com/archives/2011/09/13/open-thread-the-ny-9-and-nv-2-special-elections/comment-page-4/#comment-4913215

Encouraging. Also good to know that NY is losing seats, and this one was selected. How the state is being divided would be VERY interesting to know. Very enlightening. Indeed.

You called this one, and it seems that voter fraud and dirty tricks by the D’s are being attempted, as your prior post and comments above illustrate.

They can’t win on their record. Or the One in the White House. All they have is vote fraud and lies.

    Speaking of redistricting, the new Ohio map has been released. They’re losing 2 seats, dropping from 18 to 16. Currently its 13R/5D, the new map should result in 12R/4D, possibly 11/5 in a bad year.

    R’s controlled the process. They packed as many D’s into a single new district as they could and eliminated 3 existing ones. The result shores up the R positions gained in the last election. It also put Kaptur and Kucinich in the same district.

NV-02 results from AP:
11:53 PM ET

Precincts reporting 362/858
Amodei (R) 57%
Marshall (D) 37%

AP calls Obama LOSER!

[…] » NY-09 Results – Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion For what it’s worth, Nate Silver says “#NY09 over/under line: Weprin (D) would need about 54% of the votes in Queens precincts, 42% in Brooklyn precincts, to tie Turner” (h/t reader Chuck) (R) […]

I guess you could call this a legal insurrection.

Drudge Headline:

REVENGE OF THE JEWS; DEM SEAT TURNS IN NYC

🙂

Good news. Here in Nevada Republican Mark Amodei is ahead by double digits in most counties. I look forward to more information regarding your comment about Asian voters, Professor. F

Spike that funky football, white boy …

“Not so fast, Barry.” Apply once each morning, repeat as needed.

Hahahaha… thanks Weiner, ya arrogant, brain dead, twittering twerp. We appreciate opportunity given for the pickup.

The substitute video is very nice and the “Official Legal Insurrection Victory Dance” is awesome but thank you for NOT showing the little celebratory dance. 😉

    Joy in reply to Joy. | September 14, 2011 at 12:46 am

    Correction: it’s late and I’m tired….it’s the “Official Legal Insurrection Victory Dance” that I REALLY FIND ANNOYING so please read my comment in reverse 🙁

RE: Reform Judaism

I enjoy reading your blog, even if I rarely comment. Forgive me if I presume too much, but my wife and I (we are former missionaries) had a painful experience with the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America for reasons that sound similar to your own with Reform Judaism. The ELCA has decided that secular political activism is its main reason for existing. There is very little serious Christian theology left in the ELCA (most of the traditional Lutheran beliefs have been pounded into an unrecognizable multicultural mush), but lots of political commentary, “community organizing”, protesting, and lobbying political leaders.

    doombroker in reply to rec_lutheran. | September 14, 2011 at 1:44 am

    It makes sense corrupting an existing social structure, instead of spending money and time to build up one from scratch. While churches can’t legally be political and nonprofit, it looks like those are yet more laws broken and overlooked by a government which pretend our taxes fund some kind of oversight, and not institutional favoritism.

    Ditto U.C.C. I couldn’t even get a firm commitment as the the existance of God out of them. It seemed as if the DNC talking points were the only Gospel worth preaching.

Stupidest comment of the night belongs to Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz of Florida. Referring to the large number of Orthodox Jewish voters, she said the NYT:

‘“In this district, there is a large number of people who went to the polls tonight who didn’t support the president to begin with and don’t support Democrats — and it’s nothing more than that,” she said in a telephone interview. ”

Right. They’ve only been voting Democratic since Al Smith ran for President. Hell, the majority of them still voted for Jimmy Carter! Keep talking Debbie. Be sure to insult more Jews. Obama hasn’t insulted enough of them yet.

    Milhouse in reply to lumiere. | September 14, 2011 at 3:25 am

    Really? The majority of Orthodox Jews voted for Carter?! I doubt it. What’s your source I can believe that most voted for Clinton, at least the first time around, but other than that I’d bet the Republican got at least a small majority, and often a large one, of the Orthodox vote.

    TheLastBrainLeft in reply to lumiere. | September 14, 2011 at 4:36 am

    DWS is mad. On the internet, it’s called butthurt. She probably doesn’t want to come to work today.

    FWIW I live in NY-9 and it’s reliably Dem whenever the Dem is sane and mainstream. As long as SCOAMF is in the White House, no mostly white, moderate Dem district is safe.

Enjoyed all the music presented above, especially the delightful dance songs! Just one little question, doesn’t that tail-fire eventually hurt? Just a little?

Still, excellent choices of music! Bravo to all those brave souls voting in NY09! Still, they must be punished for their collective transgressions tonight.

bob aka either orr | September 14, 2011 at 1:38 am

For the Christians in the audience, I would offer this… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=usfiAsWR4qU

As soon as the complete absentee vote comes in, a delighted and ecstatic Democrat candidate, David Weprin, will be declaring victory, and thanking his supporters, who he says are also ecstatic.

Mr. Weprin pre-recorded his declaration of victory speech, and a video copy of that speech was given to the media, but embargoed for release only when the absentee votes are fully counted.

However, I was able to obtain an advance copy of that speech, which I have decided to post here at LI.

Here it is.

Yay. Good for Turner.

NYPost: “Take that, President Obama! …Voters in those neighborhoods haven’t backed a Republican since 1920…”

NYPost: “Disaster looms for O in 2012”

ABC News: “…voter frustration with Obama…”

Washington Post: “…President Obama suffered a sharp rebuke…”

Reuters: “Weprin had tried to cast Turner as part of the Tea Party…”

Time: “Democratic district… disillusioned with President Obama…”

CNN: “Koch… Jewish Americans were dissatisfied with Obama’s policies…”

Fox: “Obama Black Eye”

Ha’aretz: “District 9 hands Obama a Jewish ‘thumping'”

News Max: “a stunning rebuke”

First Scott Brown, then Nov. 2010, now this! SURELY, for the love of God, they will understand now, how much we HATE their policies.
God Bless America.

Thank you, Professor. Late night, but such good, good news you share!!

Victory is sweet.

Thanks, too, for all the Hava Nagila variations (along with the Pokemon dancing to Tiny Tim 🙂 ). I especially like the Dancing Hava Nagila – the choreography is excellent. Thank you for the MULTIPLE celebration moments!!! I want to get up and dance!!! I’m especially thankful that the hateful robocall slime-tactic didn’t work. More evidence that they have NOTHING and that people are rejecting all the Dem leftist policies and tactics.

Will you be updating us on the significance of the Asian vote today? You got me – my curiosity is piqued.

Now we rejoice, celebrate. Next: On to the Senate races, choosing a Conservative Republican candidate, and Election 2012!!

Weprin lost because he was hanging on to Weiner’s “weiner”.

“For historical context, the last Republican to hold the NY-9 seat was Andrew Petersen, a Danish immigrant, in 1923, who served only one term. Out of the 157 years since the founding of the Republican Party, a Democrat has held this seat for approximately 144 of those years.”

Andrew Johnson, Ricochet

[…] them (hey, there’s a first time for everything), Sec State Clinton can always blame it on domestic opposition, which would have the twin bonuses of: being well-understood by her target audience; and, well, […]

[…] them (hey, there’s a first time for everything), Sec State Clinton can always blame it on domestic opposition, which would have the twin bonuses of: being well-understood by her target audience; and, well, […]

Once you remove the communists, the Chinese, and Russians, for that matter, share many cultural traits with American conservatives. Actually, that is true for most people in the world when removed from authoritarian oppression and dictates that denigrate individual dignity.

Enjoy the moment, but keep the eyes on the prize. While this is good news for the people of New York (and by extension, the USA), we must prepare for what will be an incedibly ugly election that may well test the bounds of our Union. (No, Jimmy, Jr…not you)
While I’m happy to see the scales have fallen from the eyes of the electorate, the DNC will not give up without a fight. Obama has gotten them as close to their ultimate goal as they have been since FDR, and they will bitterly cling to power.

[…] them (hey, there’s a first time for everything), Sec State Clinton can always blame it on domestic opposition, which would have the twin bonuses of: being well-understood by her target audience; and, well, […]

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