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2012 Republican Primaries Tag

Posted by William A. Jacobson on February 08, 2012 63 Comments

So what did last night mean? Rick Santorum won the two non-binding caucuses where all candidates competed, and the Missouri non-binding primary where Newt was not on the ballot. Does it mean that the Republican electorate all of the sudden has fallen in love with Santorum?  That...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on February 07, 2012 49 Comments

Endgame quick analysis: Great night for Santorum. Now he has to show he can win with Newt also in the field and when Romney cares enough to spend money and attack. Horrible night for Romney. Another hole in the bubble of electability, and the new narrative...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on February 06, 2012 37 Comments

Sometime late last night or early this morning Eastern time, the final results in Nevada were released. Romney came in with a 1% lower percentage of the vote than in 2008, but more significantly, both Romney's actual number of votes and Republican participation in the caucuses...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on February 04, 2012 119 Comments

I'll post the Nevada results later.  Romney won big there in 2008  (51.1%) because of the heavy Mormon turnout at the caucuses and is expected to do so again. The big story was the revelation in The NY Times that the Romney campaign, both directly and...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on February 03, 2012 55 Comments

Mitt Romney has outspent Newt Gingrich on negative advertising in every state, starting in Iowa, and was the first to go negative every time. Yet Romney, with absolute conviction, continues to say that the reason he lost South Carolina was that he was outspent by Newt,...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on February 01, 2012 41 Comments

in Nevada with this mailer: Similar mailers have been running for days. I suppose Mitt will tell us that he only is going negative because Newt outspent him in Florida. Who is it that can't be trusted?...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on January 31, 2012 196 Comments

Looks like turnout down 200k from 2008.  Notice that when Romney ties/wins (IA, NH, FL) no turnout surge, when Newt won in SC huge turnout surge.  Turnout will be important in November 2012, and while Romney is winning, he's not motivating new voters to come...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on January 31, 2012 64 Comments

Tweet from DrewMTips, a Newt supporter, who contributes to AceOfSpadesHQ and his own blog: Here was my response: Correct diagnosis? Update 4:10 p.m.:  I think this may be more of a concern than Romney hatred, people who became active in politics since the election of Obama who look at Romney...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on January 31, 2012 65 Comments

There is a trend developing to assign equal blame to the poisoned atmosphere in the Republican campaign, as if there were no cause just effect. I'm not going to allow history to be rewritten the way the Romney campaign and its supporters tried to rewrite the history...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on January 30, 2012 76 Comments

I'm sure this headline drives Santorum supporters wild, and I understand why.  If the roles were reversed, I would feel the same way. But sometimes reality is what it is.  Both Newt and Santorum have said they will soldier on indefinitely and I don't doubt their...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on January 30, 2012 62 Comments

Mitt Romney "surges" when he and his SuperPAC outspend rivals on negative ads several times over.  In Florida he has outspent Newt by $12 million, and it is showing up in the polls. Mark Levin made a good point yesterday as to why Romney outspending Republican...

Posted by Bryan Jacoutot on January 29, 2012 72 Comments

The latest polls in Florida point to a significant Romney victory on Tuesday, possibly double digits. If Romney does win by a double digit margin in Florida, the pressure will be for those who do not support Romney to stop criticizing Romney in the name of...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on January 28, 2012 50 Comments

In keeping with the video of the day, the polling isn't exactly clear on what is happening here. On the one hand, numerous polls show Romney moving to a mid-to-high single digit lead in Florida, but Gallup and most other national polls show no upward movement for Romney...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on January 28, 2012 51 Comments

The Romney campaign has been sending representatives to Newt rallies in the hope of distracting media attention away from Newt. I think it's a silly ploy which reflects a campaign that can only gain ground by attacking and disrupting others. But why is rising star Jason Chaffetz participating...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on January 26, 2012 125 Comments

Endgame assessment: It's almost like there were two debates. Early on Romney scored points against Newt on Freddie Mac and the "wealth issue," and Santorum scored major points against Romney on Romneycare.  The first half of the debate was not strong for Newt, although I...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on January 26, 2012 80 Comments

The only way Mitt Romney wins a nomination is by destroying others.  It was true in 2008, and it's true in 2012.  He is incapable of bringing people together with positive inspiration.  He had the chance early in this cycle to prove he would not run the...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on January 26, 2012 88 Comments

Politico's homepage top headline is The right drops a bomb on Newt featuring photos of Ann Coulter, Tom DeLay, Elliot Abrams and Matt Drudge. Just like in December, the rise of Newt has caused panic in Republican circles. In December the charge was led by National Review, and now...

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