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A vote tomorrow for Santorum still is a vote for Romney

A vote tomorrow for Santorum still is a vote for Romney

I’m sure this headline drives Santorum supporters wild, and I understand why.  If the roles were reversed, I would feel the same way.

But sometimes reality is what it is.  Both Newt and Santorum have said they will soldier on indefinitely and I don’t doubt their intentions.

But if Romney wins by a commanding margin in Florida — and the polls say that is a strong possibility if not a likelihood — the media narrative and Republican Party pressure will be to stop fighting amongst ourselves in the name of defeating Obama.  Money also will dry up for others.

The reality is that only Newt is within striking distance of Romney tomorrow in Florida, Santorum is the margin of difference, and only Newt tomorrow can derail the narrative of Romney inevitability.

If the narrative of Romney inevitability is derailed, Santorum politically gets to fight on and see if he can stage another Iowa in caucus states or elsewhere.

It’s similar to a general election where a candidate who pulls only high single digits or low teens can result in a plurality for a candidate they do not support.

Unless, of course, the Santorum supporter ultimately would be okay with Romney winning.

And that may be part of the equation.  If a Santorum supporter is okay with Romney as the nominee, really doesn’t want Newt, and wants to vote his or her conscience, then a vote for Santorum makes sense.

Otherwise, it’s wasted.

Update:  Well, they certainly don’t help the situation:

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Comments

Unassailable logic.

    Hope Change in reply to raven. | January 30, 2012 at 4:45 pm

    Agreed, raven, agreed.

    Hitting the showers right about now would be the best thing Rick Santorum’s ever done for the conservative movement

    People have all sorts of motivations for making endorsements, like how they’d like to be perceived, positioning their brand, etc.

    I’m sure most know the guy could never win, but pumping such a dead ender now is nothing but a gift to Flipper that ignores all reality on the ground

I said it in a previous post, and I’ll say it again.

St. Rick has been bought. Remember, against all expectations, Senator Holy-Holy Family Values endorsed Specter (pro-abortion ultralib) over Toomey (conservative) in 2004.

Santorum supporters, don’t be too surprised if your Holy-Holy Ricky gives Romney the Kiss of Peace at some point.

BannedbytheGuardian | January 30, 2012 at 4:46 pm

Floridians will look to the one they think can deliver the nice lifestyles they used to have. Mitts boat & white shoes are icons of a an easy wealth they all aspired to .

But it is a dream gone forever. I have seen some of the mini luxury boats shipped across the Pacific after being bought for a song in Florida. What were they thinking _ these boats were ridiculous. They have had to be stripped down for local resale to REAL sailors.

I recently read a business study on the best states to retire to. Florida did not make the top 10. Idaho topped the list. Idaho also has the fastest growing youth population.

No one can ever expect to recoup their housing investments in Florida.

In 30 years alligators will reclaim the condos.

Florida is

“I’m sure this headline drives Santorum supporters wild, and I understand why. If the roles were reversed, I would feel the same way.”

But you’ll do it anyway :/

Yes, voting for the person one thinks is best is often seen as “wasting” it to conservatives…

    CalMark in reply to iambasic. | January 30, 2012 at 4:56 pm

    Conservatives constantly complain that the Republicans have no party discipline. Can’t all pull together when the chips are down.

    You Santorum voters are currently guilty of just that. You sound like the Ross Perot voters in ’92 and ’96, who handed the Presidency to Clinton, twice.

    If Romney is the nominee, and the difference is Santorum, I never, ever want to hear a Santorum person complain about Obama, the Establishment, Democrats–or, for that matter, Romney EVER again.

    P.S. I will vote for Romney, much as I despise the unscrupulous bastard. Here’s why: 1) Obama is a Marxist radical bent on dictatorship; Romney is just a corrupt fool; 2) Obama is fast becoming a dictator already and no GOP’er will ever be (too spineless and, besides, the media wouldn’t let them).

      CalMark in reply to CalMark. | January 30, 2012 at 4:58 pm

      Clarification to my P.S.: I would vote for Romney in the general (for all the good it’ll do) if he’s the nominee. In the primary, if Newt’s still around by CA, I’m voting Gingrich.

      iambasic in reply to CalMark. | January 30, 2012 at 5:04 pm

      Conservatives have routinely been there carrying the bilge water of wishy-washy spineless candidates in order to present a unified front against liberals but we’ve carried our last heap thanks to the miserable candidate picked in 2008. Keep your filthy unification crap. Conservatives are doing a good thing by vetting people thoroughly! That’s what the stinking primary stuff is for! Stop complaining. Florida is not an end it all primary in the least!

      BTW – Perot was a 3rd party candidate and we are not anywhere near a 3rd party run so your analogy blows.

        CalMark in reply to iambasic. | January 30, 2012 at 5:17 pm

        My analogy is valid.

        We have a three-way ideological race in the GOP: Establishment Romney, Conservative Gingrich/Santorum, Liberatarian Ron Paul.

        Like it or not, Santorum isn’t getting traction, and is taking votes mainly from the candidate favored by most conservatives, but a 3:1 margin. Those are facts. You can disagree with us, condemn us, revile us, but that’s how we are thinking and voting.

        Of course it hurts that your guy isn’t getting traction. I’ve been there (Duncan Hunter, ’08).

        But: A brokered convention is not a good bet, Santorum is drawing about 10% nationally, and Iowa was a fluke of the Romney takedown of Gingrich. Casting a “protest vote” for Santorum, all but guarantees Romney. Is that really what you want?

          iambasic in reply to CalMark. | January 30, 2012 at 5:26 pm

          Voting for the person one thinks is best is never considered a “protest vote” by a conservative. Stop throwing away the power of an individual’s vote as some sort of protest action.

          CalMark in reply to CalMark. | January 30, 2012 at 5:45 pm

          “Making a statement” on a no-hoper IS throwing away your vote, unless you want the guy who benefits most from your no-hoper vote to win.

          Politics is a terrible thing, not least because such “moral victories” are usually unintentionally destructive.

          This is a practical decision: Santorum is out of it, Gingrich is the choice of conservatives by 3:1. If the situation were reversed, I’d swallow my hurt feelings and vote Santorum. Yes, I would. I despise McCain, and voted for him in ’08; if it came down to it, would vote Romney in ’12 if that’s what it was.

          I’m doing my best to be rational and logical. So stop with your vitriol.

          RexGrossmanSpiral in reply to CalMark. | January 30, 2012 at 9:03 pm

          iambasic,

          It’s called winning. That’s all that matters here.

          JEBurke in reply to CalMark. | January 30, 2012 at 10:13 pm

          It is not possible for anyone to know how current Santorum voters would split if Rick was out. The assumption that you could just add them to Newt’s because they are all “conservative” while Romney voters are “establishment” is unfounded.

If Santorum goes home, then what? He has nothing. Gingrich needs to find a way to communicate that he has a future. Everyone else who has bailed out has had something else to do. Rick, nada.

    iambasic in reply to imfine. | January 30, 2012 at 4:52 pm

    Yeah, being a private family guy is nada to conservatives…

      Ragspierre in reply to iambasic. | January 30, 2012 at 5:08 pm

      As Rush observed the other day…Barackah Obama is a fine family man.

      Ain’t enough, isit…???

        iambasic in reply to Ragspierre. | January 30, 2012 at 5:11 pm

        HUH?? How is that anywhere near the same silly topic as a complaint about Santorum not having “something else to do” politically speaking if he drops out of the race?

          Ragspierre in reply to iambasic. | January 30, 2012 at 5:17 pm

          Sorry. I was perhaps not elaborative enough for you.

          What would Barackah have if he were suddenly retired?

          Santorum HAS been a political animal, and they have certain common qualities, IMNHO.

          iambasic in reply to iambasic. | January 30, 2012 at 5:30 pm

          Really Ragspierre – “certain common qualities” HAHAHAHA!

          Ok, they are both married and both have daughters. I was going to say they are both men too, but I’m not sure of that since the baseball pitch fiasco.

Can someone clear something up for me? I’ve thought all along that the delegates in Florida were going to be awarded proportionally, and now EVERY news media outlet is talking about Florida being winner-take-all.

Yet, the RNC SPECIFICALLY said that if Florida moved their primary up, they would lose 1/2 of their delegates and NOT be WTA (and there’s plenty of documentation out there to back that statement up).

So why is everyone now saying that Florida is winner-take-all? Did the powers-that-be at the RNC decide to change their minds (and if so, just when did that happen)?

And if it’s not WTA, then the way I see it, there’s still a long way to go, and this race isn’t over by a long shot.

    Greetings teresainfortworth, I’m here in Austin, TX! You’re right on what you stated. This is far from over.

    Like Palin said “The math is the math”:

    “The memo, from National Political Director Martin Baker, notes Romney’s lack of conservative grassroots support, and stresses that Romney currently has just 33 of the 1144 needed (Gingrich has 25 of 1144).

    “Regardless of who wins on Tuesday,” the memo says, “they will have less than 10% of the delegates they need to claim the nomination….”

    Additionally, the memo stresses that the proportional nature of the upcoming contests “essentially guarantees that no candidate will secure the nomination anytime soon and the map quickly becomes more favorable for Gingrich.”

    More than 20 percent of the available delegates (467) will be awarded on Super Tuesday, and the memo notes that, one of the Super Tuesday states is Georgia, with 76 delegates at stake. To put that in perspective, “even if Romney wins Florida on Tuesday, he will only have 83 total delegates; Newt’s home state could effectively cancel out his entire delegate count to date.”

    The memo also describes Tennessee (58) and Oklahoma (43) as “favorable” Super Tuesday states, and notes that just one week after Super Tuesday (March 13), 90 delegates will be in play in Alabama and Mississippi. And if the point that a Florida loss is survivable wasn’t already hammered home, the memo notes, “these 90 [delegates] alone are more than the 83 Romney will have in hand on Wednesday morning if he wins Florida.””

    http://tinyurl.com/82w5rzg

      But even THAT indicates that if Romney “wins” Florida, that he will be getting all of their delegates – or am I missing something? ‘Cuz 33 + 50 = 83, and that’s the number that Ms. Palin was citing.

      I’m still trying to figure out what the heck is going on – if the RNC has changed their mind midstream then shame on them. If they changed their mind and didn’t tell the voters, then somebody needs to telegraph that ASAP, because the optics are VERY BAD…..

        Here is a link that shows Florida

        Because Florida moved up their primary they lost half their delegates, and becane winner take all.

        “Florida Republicans would allocate their delegates in much the same way that South Carolina did earlier in the cycle. Unpenalized, Florida would have allocated 81 delegates (three in each of the Sunshine state’s 27 congressional districts) winner-take-all based on which candidate won each congressional district. The remaining 15 at-large delegates would have been allocated, well, those delegates would have been allocated based on the statewide results.2 The rules indicate that those at-large delegates would have been allocated winner-take-all, but in this alternate universe, where Florida is actually obeying the rules, winner-take-all allocation would have been in violation of the RNC rules if the contest was held prior to April 1.

        But, of course, Florida jumped into the territory of the “carve out” states and lost half of its delegation in the process. On September 30, when the Presidential Preference Primary Date Selection Committee chose to place the Florida primary back on January 31 — where it started the year based on the state law passed in 2007 that was altered creating the above committee in 2011 — it set in motion everything witnessed in the time since. Sure, most of us were paying attention to where Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina would end up on the calendar after the Florida move, but in the meantime the RNC finalized plans to strip the Sunshine state of half of its delegates.

        It was that move — the official sanction — that triggered the change to a straight winner-take-all allocation of the Florida delegates.”

        http://frontloading.blogspot.com/search/label/2012%20Republican%20Delegate%20Allocation%20series

    I’m from FL, but I don’t know for sure. I also thought it would be proportional because they jumped ahead, and then I heard the winner take all. If you read these two pieces, it looks as if there could be a challenge to the winner take all.

    http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/01/26/2610390/fight-looms-over-fla-delegates.html

    http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/01/floridas-winner-will-lock-in-50-delegates-not-necessarily/

    From ABC:

    The RNC certified a new set of primary rules in 2010 that forbade winner-take-all contests from occurring before April 1.

    The same rules that Florida violated also stipulate that the state can only be punished once, which has already happened. Florida originally had 99 delegates, but that number was cut in half. The Sunshine State will not lose any more delegates. But, there is another way Florida’s winner could ultimately wind up with fewer than 50 delegates.

    A provision the Republican National Committee’s rules allows Florida citizens who were eligible to vote in the primary to file a challenge with a group called the committee on contests, a committee within the RNC, requesting that Florida switch their delegate allotment to a proportional system.

    I will say this reeks IMO.

      Clarification: what I think reeks is not being able to challenge, but the way this entire scenario appears to be a setup. The Miami Herald column had this quote:

      Brian Hughes, spokesman for the Florida GOP, said it’s a nonissue, that the RNC’s legal office has already signed off on Florida’s winner-take-all primary plan.

      The FL GOP powerbrokers are trying to call the shots on this.

      Didn’t something similar to this crap happen in Florida for the Dems in 2008?

      The parties are playing with fire here, and the natives are getting restless…..

Amen Professor. Been in politics all my life and have seen conservatives hurt themselves one too many times. This time it is just too darn important for our country to split our votes. I like Santorum, always have, but my vote will go to Newt and I’ll bet there will be a place for Santorum on the ticket or in Newt’s Administration … but first we have to get there. Let’s hang together for this one, or surely we hang separately.

    Hope Change in reply to Say_What. | January 30, 2012 at 5:51 pm

    Say_What — I don’t even like Santorum any more. The more I see Santorum saying Newt is not a good leader et cetera, and trying to act as if Newt and Romney are the same, the less I respect Santorum.

    I started our respecting what I know of most of the,

    As Bachmann started attacking newt with untruths, I didn’t like her any more. Newt said, that is just factually wrong, and Michelle doesn’t go and find out the truth, but repeats the claims again. I knew what she was saying was wrong, and I’m just an observer.

    Then she plays the female card and goes all, “I’m a serious candidate in this race.” Oh, call the waaaambulance. I can see how effective it would be if something like the Cuban Miissle Crisis happened and the first woman president whines, “waa waa waa I’m a serious elected official.” Who cares?

    Yes, Congresswoman, you are, and I was prepared to respect you until just about that minute. You misrepresented the facts. Then you whined instead of getting honest. Sorry, next?!

    I feel that same way when Santorum, against tradition, respect and protocol, calls Newt “Congressman” instead of “Mr. Speaker.” So petty. It makes Rick look to me like a little, little man, who is needlessly disrespectful. I don’t want him for president. I don’t like him.

    Also Santorum says Newt is not a leader, when didn’t Newt help Santorum pass legislation? Doesn’t Rick know better? Did he and Newt have a very good working relationship? Isn’t he stabbing Newt in the back just for his own personal political gain?

    And for what?

    I’m sorry. I was prepared to respect Santorum, to give him a chance, even though he lost his last race by 18 or 20 points. Even though he endorsed Arlen Spector over Pat Toomey. I mean, who does that? But I said to myself, give the guy a chance.

    I sincerely think Rick Santorum is in this for himself. A true conservative has to be honest and respectful and put our country first. Rick should be asking Newt how he can help defeat Obama, not trying to make himself look big by calling Newt “Congressman” instead of “Mister Speaker. Weasel words. What a disappointment Santorum is.

    I had expected Bachmann and Santorum to play important roles in the Gingrich administration, if Newt got the nomination. (If Newt gets the nomination, I believe it’s very possible and even likely that the American people are going to put conservatives in the House and Senate and sweep Newt into the White House like Reagan’s re-election in 1984.) Now that I’ve seen Bachmann and Santorum twisting the facts THAT THEY MUST KNOW ARE WRONG, I would be ok if we never hear much from them again.

    I don’t feel that way about Perry or Cain. And I am thrilled that they both have endorsed Newt. I felt that each was trying to win on his own merits and not by tearing the other guy down.

    According Jose Mallea, Newt’s Florida State Director Campaign, the TEA Parties are stepping up with Newt. They are organized. And they make make the difference. Directorhttp://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/Florida-primary-tea-party/2012/01/29/id/425866

    Listening to Rasmussen on Sean right now. Rasmussen says three out of four Republican voters say the Establishment is out of touch with the American people.

    If the Establishment Republicans will not support Obama over Newt, if the Establishment support Obama if they can’t have Romney, then IT IS BETTER for that to be out in the open: THE REPUBLICAN ESTABLISHMENT DON’T CARE ABOUT THE AMERICAN PEOPLE.

    I think the energy of those of us who are FED UP in OWS and the TEA Party will be drawn to Newt’s solutions. Think about the power of the people. In a constitutional framework. to restore our country. that we love.

    The establishment on both sides can get a real job or start a real business or start doing something that ADDS VALUE instead of just getting rich from some aspect of taxpayer money.

      CalMark in reply to Hope Change. | January 30, 2012 at 5:58 pm

      Wow.

      Awesome post!

      You have just said everything I’ve been thinking, but much better than I can express it.

      Kudos.

      CalMark in reply to Hope Change. | January 30, 2012 at 6:03 pm

      P.S. I think Santorum’s folks are starting to look/feel/sound a LOT like Ron Paul’s folks. Their guy can’t get traction, so they get nasty and “to heck with everyone else!”–they’re going to make their moral statement, darn it!

      Except that Santorum supporters, if they’re truly conservative, should no better.

      P.P.S. Santorum has a very sick daughter, even stopped campaigning to go home for her. In spite of this, Mr. Family Values stays in a race he probably can’t win. To do a job that would prevent him seeing this poor child very much. Hm.

      Say_What in reply to Hope Change. | January 30, 2012 at 6:32 pm

      Hope Change – I’m a Palinista, have been for a long time and, heaven knows, we’ve seen everything but the kitchen sink thrown at Palin. When she decided not to run, I decided to support Newt because I felt he expressed my views better than Santorum and I remember that he did keep his Contract With America. Rare for a politician to keep a list of promises. But I also look at winnability and Newt is the one who I believe can win against O.

      Palin appears to also understand that we need to get behind Newt and and win this for our country and I trust Palin’s political judgement. The rest is just politics, so Santorum’s criticisms of Newt are minor to me and doesn’t make him a bad person IMO, especially when compared to Romney’s. What we need to do is pull together to defeat Romney and I hope Santorum will reach that conclusion soon because there is no room for error in 2012.

        CalMark in reply to Say_What. | January 30, 2012 at 6:40 pm

        You’re right about pulling together. But read the comments by Santorum supporters “iambasic” above and “Pasadena Phil” below, and you’ll see what we’re up against. Santorum has become a cult figure, like Ron Paul.

        And I respectfully disagree about the “just politics” thing. It’s discourteous to call someone by a lesser title than they deserve, and lying about them when they’ve helped you. That betrays a very serious character flaw, IMHO.

          Say_What in reply to CalMark. | January 30, 2012 at 7:01 pm

          CalMark – I guess I’ve been through so many political battles that my standards of “just politics” has a higher threshold! I agree to disagree. After all, the guy who coined the phrase “VooDoo Economics” ended up being Reagan’s running mate.

          iambasic in reply to CalMark. | January 30, 2012 at 8:12 pm

          HAHAHA – I love this:

          “Santorum has become a cult figure”

          then this in the same statement

          “It’s discourteous to call someone by a lesser title than they deserve”

          Well, I guess for some GOPers here the social issues and not engaging in anti-wealth populism are just “cult” stuff.

          And I’m the one spewing “vitriol” HAHAHA!

          Try this “vitriol”

          “Santorum has a very sick daughter, even stopped campaigning to go home for her. In spite of this, Mr. Family Values stays in a race he probably can’t win. To do a job that would prevent him seeing this poor child very much. Hm.”

          Sounds like CalMark is using the anti-Palin playbook logic.

          shame 🙁

          CalMark in reply to CalMark. | January 30, 2012 at 9:00 pm

          iambasic = incoherent

      Great stuff, Hope Change.

      Santorum is junior varsity in every respect and always will be.

      RexGrossmanSpiral in reply to Hope Change. | January 30, 2012 at 9:48 pm

      Remember Santorum was meddling at 3% for months and still hasn’t gotten more than 25% of the vote in any state. I can’t figure out this guy’s logic.

Maybe it’s just me, but I can’t imagine how someone who supports Santorum could ever vote for Romney.

It must be said that THIS ALSO APPLIES TO VOTES CAST FOR RON PAUL.

Not that dyed in the wool Paulistas will care, but there might be others leaning in his direction.

    SeanInLI in reply to ThomasD. | January 31, 2012 at 1:38 am

    I think most folks write off Paul supporters as Ron Paul or bust in the primary, and Ron Paul or Obama in the general.

    At least most folks I know see them that way.

Re: Jazz Shaw’s inane tweet. “Locking up” the nomination? Who is “Jazz Shaw”? He makes some claim to be a “pundit”? The nomination is “locked up” after three primaries/caucuses won by three different candidates?

AdamantiumVorlon | January 30, 2012 at 6:05 pm

Obama will win Re-Election due to the GOP forcing progressive Rino candidates on us who basically want the same thing Obama does; a Progressive Socialist Justice System and more; like Europe (we have seen how well they are doing), they are just quieter about it.

A Vote for Romney is a vote for Obama.

Congratulations people, we are screwed either way. Enjoy what freedoms you have left while you can.

That headline is exactly why so many pundits in the “conservative” media have no credibility. A vote for Santorum is a vote for Santorum. It is not a vote for Romney nor for Obama. As soon as we can return to simple truth, things will start getting better.

Everyone whose name is on the ballot is electable if enough people vote for that person. So if people would also stop insisting that the guy with the most dirty money is the only one electable, that too would be a great help.

If we are ever going to return to a society of mature and responsible adults, it wouldn’t be a bad start for pundits to start treating us like adults. At this point, I really don’t care anymore who the GOP nominates. What matters is that we have a very contentious and raucous brokered convention so we can finally face the entrenched crooks who run the GOP and humiliate them in front of the dirty money.

RefudiateObama2012 | January 30, 2012 at 6:38 pm

As Palin said, “The math is the math”.

This is a bit O/T, but you guy HAVE to check out this photoshop I did. Let me know what you think. I think it’s hilarious.

http://otisthehand.blogspot.com/2012/01/newi-and-romney-lieth-5-times-spending.html

The endorsements for Santorum are really back door endorsements for Romney. These people just don’t have the guts to say so. Santorum is not going to get the nomination and they know it. Bunch of cowards.

Aw, but you’re missing the most important part…a vote tomorrow for Santorum is a re-election of Obama. The Tea Party who votes for Santorum will not vote for Romney in the General…why install Obama v2.0 for another 8 years when you can vote your conscious for Santorum and true Tea Party conservatism and set-up Santorum or another TP candidate in 2016?

I will not vote for Romney in the GOP primary. And I will not vote for Romney in the General only to have to wait 8 years vs. 4 to get a true conservative in the WH.

Santorum 12′. Let’s make this a 2-person race between Romney and Santorum post-Florida.

Interesting insight about Florida primary.

“Tomorrow We Find It: Are Voters Engaged or Enraged?”

http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/18024

“But sometimes reality is what it is.”

Yeah, and if you have to constantly cry and beg for other people to drop out for your guy to have a chance to win, that means you have a weak candidate who isn’t worthy of winning.

And here is another hard truth. Of all the not-Romneys, Newt is the candidate that is the most like Romney – global warming, healthcare mandate, etc., etc. Romney vs. Newt isn’t a real choice in the same way Romney vs. Obama is not a real choice. If it comes to that, I will be voting third party or writing someone in. So by your own logic, remember, a vote for Newt, Romney, or Paul is a vote for Obama.

My state already had its primary, and I voted my conscience. But since I didn’t vote for Newt, apparently I voted for Romney/Obama/the end of America/etc. Whatever.

If this latest poll is on target, it doesn’t much matter what Santorum voters in Florida do.

http://jacksonville.com/opinion/blog/403455/matt-dixon/2012-01-30/florida-poll-mitt-romney-20-points-newt-gingrich

In any case, the only guy left who could yet mount a serious anti-Romney move with a chance of success — that is, one that could appeal to a wide range of Republican voters — is Rick Santorum.

Whatever you can say for or against Newt as a candidate, he is now spent. He will not win the nomination, much less the election. To be sure, Newt can stay in, live off the land or bank on more big checks to his super PAC from Sheldon Adelson, but all he can accomplish now is revenge, dragging down Romney and the party with him.

But Santorum could have a shot. He is certfiably a staunch conservative (more so than Newt). He has no unseemly personal baggage. He does not have legions of old enemies throughout the Republican party across the nation. He’s young, smart, attractive, articulate. Rick could even pull some “establishment” Republicans who have their own reservations about Romney (remember how many wanted Ryan, Daniels, Christie, et al. and look at how few have actually endorsed anyone.) Even I could be a straw in the wind: if the race boiled down to Romney vs. Santorum, I would seriously consider both. But honestly, with all due respect, I could never support Newt for the nomination.

It is a big mistake to imagine that the Republican electorate is neatly divided into “movement conservatives” and “the establishment,” or “tea party” and “country club” (plus Paulites). Real voters simply never fall out in such simplified blocs. They have a lot of differing and overlapping concerns and interests and they pay attention to a lot of intangibles about candidates. Y’all don’t like to hear it, but a lot of movement conservative/tea party voters like Rombey for many reasons. When you see the media manifestation of that fact in the shape of pols, pundits, bloggers, etc. backing Romney, you pronounce them all establishment sellouts instead of entertaining what they have to say.

In any event, I reiterate: the only guy at this point who might stop Romney is Santorum, so if stopping Romney is what turns you on, you should hope that Newt drops out.

    William A. Jacobson in reply to JEBurke. | January 30, 2012 at 9:00 pm

    I find it interesting when Romney supporters promote Santorum as the true conservative alternative to Romney. It’s the ultimate concern troll argument, which has been a favorite of Jennifer Rubin for a couple of months — express concern for conservatives while promoting a candidate who has almost zero chance of defeating Romney over a candidate who has at least some chance.

      I recommend you check out the pre-Florida poll at Hot Air.

      If the primary were to narrow down to two candidates, Romney vs. Mr. X, Santorum would do a better job of uniting conservatives than Newt would.

      This is patently obvious, because Santorum isn’t anywhere near as polarizing a figure as Newt is.

      And I guess you’d bogusly call this a “concern troll” argument: If Newt loses big in Florida, as it seems likely, he has virtually zero chance of winning. If Newt were to drop out after Florida, Santorum would have a very real chance of winning the nomination, much more than Newt would if Santorum were to drop out.

      I am telling you what I think as someone who has been deeply involved in politics, government and business for nearly 50 years.

      The only attachment I have to Romney is that I think he has hands down the best shot of winning in November among the nine people who chose to run this year. I have no animus of any kind toward Newt but it is my analysis of the situation that he had no chance to beat Obama, who will be very strong and tough to beat, and that he now has no chance to win the nomination. If I am wrong, I am wrong, but that is what I think. If I thought Newt had a chance, I would have considered him.

      I like Santorum. Repeat, I like Santorum. I have never thought he would be better able to beat Obama than Romney. I still don’t.

      However, I do believe he has a better shot at challenging Romney for the nomination at this point than Newt. Thus, I think that people motivated to nominate someone other than Romney would do better to rally around Rick than Newt. If I am wrong, I’m wrong.

      But I say what I think straightforwardly and in the hope that someone here might find it helpful or interesting, even if only as a counterpoint or to test their own opinions. I read a lot and post comments as the moment moves me expressing my views on 10 or 12 websites devoted to politics. Everything I post I post under my own real name. I do not hide behind a phony handle like most of your regular commenters. I do not post bursts of emotional ranting.

      I am far too old to waste my time “trolling” on the internet.I consider myself a serious person willing to engage in useful conversation online with other serious people who share an overall political outlook. I believe that is why you started this blog and have obviously put an enormous amount of time and energy into building its success. I congratulate you and hope you keep it that way.

        Weirddave in reply to JEBurke. | January 31, 2012 at 11:53 am

        I question how “serious” your 50 years of “political involvement” actually is if you honestly think Romney is the most electable. BHO would have to lose a war with Iran in October for Mitt to beat him. Baring that, Mitt’s got no chance. What’s your prognostication as to how Mitt wins in November? How? How does he do it? Well, he’ll appeal to the middle by pandering to them I’m told. When has that ever worked? Mr. Dole? Mr. Kerry? Seriously, HOW does Mitt win? I want to know.

    Just in from Romney troll central. Looks like the Willard crowd is in pure panic mode.

Whether or not he likes it Rick Santorum has been Romney’s stalking horse ever since Iowa. Needed to bow out after SC.

If someone would promise that Santorum would get his turn as the not-Romney in the next state, I would go for it.

Santorum won Iowa; Romney won New Hampshire; Gingrich won South Carolina. By rights, it’s Santorum’s turn, but if everyone wants Gingrich to be the not-Romney this time, then it should be Santorum next.

By the way, I saw separately speculation that Santorum and Gingrich would ask their supporters to vote for Ron Paul in Virginia since only Paul and Romney will be on the ticket.

    WarEagle82 in reply to LIDavidD. | January 31, 2012 at 2:58 am

    I’m voting for Paul in Virginia as a protest against Romney! It will be a real wake up call if Paul takes a huge percentage of the vote here. But Romney and the GOP establishment will ignore it…

[…] It’s Not Posted on January 30, 2012 6:53 pm by Bill Quick » A vote tomorrow for Santorum still is a vote for Romney – Le·gal In·sur&… I’m sure this headline drives Santorum supporters wild, and I understand why.  If the […]

Check that: New still being Newt-Locking up the nomination for Mitt at this point.

Instapundit links to a Forbes piece that cogently warns about Romney’s deficiencies.

I have grown weary of the various forms of “a vote for X is really a vote for Y.”

The GOP field is once again a joke. From this sorry field I have to make a choice I can live with. And it isnt easy this year. In fact in Virginia I have no real choice AGAIN this year!

But my vote for “X” is my vote for “X” though you may interpret it any way you like. But when your candidate loses it is because he couldnt convince me to vote for him. That is his failure and not mine. But blame me if it makes you feel better…

StephenMonteith | January 31, 2012 at 11:16 am

So, if Newt Gingrich can win South Carolina despite Santorum still being in the race, then how would his losing Florida be Santorum’s fault? Honestly, stop complaining about the fact that Newt and Mitt aren’t going head-to-head with each other. Did Romney complain that Huntsman’s supporters in Iowa cost him the victory there?

    Because Romney is outspending Newt 6 or 7 to 1 in FL, where the Establishment is very, very strong. SC is strong conservative country.

    FL is Jeb Bush country, and they pushed for Crist to be the Senate candidate. They’re also redistricting the two strongest conservatives (one of them black, so they’re REALLY serious) out of their districts.

    There’s no argument: Santorum is dividing the conservative vote. Santorum voters are far more likely to vote for Gingrich than Romney or especially (with his crazy foreign policy and libertarian social ideas) Ron Paul.

    So, your little narcissistic weasel-boy Santorum is going to divide the conservative vote and hand the nomination to Romney. Hurray for “sending a message!”

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