Is Joe Biden’s Support Wall Beginning to Crack?
In spite of Biden’s consistent frontrunner status in national polls, some of the early primary state polls show the Democratic race is closer than it appears.
Even with his well-documented penchant for gaffes, his tendency to flub or embellish stories, and his outright lying about his positions on the issues, Joe Biden’s lead in national Democratic presidential polling has been consistent and stable.
But we’re just a few months out from the start of Democratic primaries and caucuses, and the focus is shifting from national polls to state-level polls. It is in some of the early primary state polls that we see cracks in Joe Biden’s wall of support:
… a CBS News and YouGov survey among likely Democratic voters in early voting states finds Biden in a tight matchup against Warren and Sanders, who have galvanized the party’s progressive base.
In that poll, also released Sunday, Biden is neck and neck with either Warren and Sanders in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. The only early voting state in which he holds a sizable lead, South Carolina, finds him at 43% over Sanders’ 18% and Warren’s 14%, a reflection of his strong support among African-Americans.
Among 18 states that will hold primaries or caucuses early in 2020, including those on Super Tuesday, Warren stands at 26% about even with Biden at 25%, with Sanders in third place at 19%. Harris trails behind with 8% along with Buttigieg (6%) and former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke (4%). Former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro and New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker each have 2% support across these states, with the rest of the Democratic field at 1% or less.
Here’s the breakdown of those numbers:
CBSYouGov polls: IA: Biden 29, Sanders 26, Warren 17. NH: Warren 27, Biden 26, Sanders 25. NV: Sanders 29, Biden 27, Warren 18. SC: Biden 43, Sanders 18, Warren 14. All in all, a fine set of #s for Sanders. Good, not awesome for Warren. Biden? Ok. https://t.co/q61fIr3s3v pic.twitter.com/OSb4DKZHe2
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) September 8, 2019
#New Early Primary States @YouGovUS/@CBSNewsPoll (8/28-9/4):
Warren 26%
Biden 25%
Sanders 19%
Harris 8%
Buttigieg 6%
O'Rourke 4%
Castro 2%
Booker 2%
Klobuchar 1%
Yang 1%
Gabbard 1%
Bennet 1%
Bullock 1%
Delaney 1%— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) September 9, 2019
CBS News is also doing something new this year in trying to predict the delegate counts for each candidate. They have not revealed the methodology they used to determine the numbers:
The former vice president now clings to a narrow lead over Warren in our CBS News/YouGov Tracker estimate of convention delegates — the only count that ultimately matters — with an estimated 600 delegates of all delegates available through Super Tuesday, to Warren’s 545.
Warren has gained delegate share as supporters of other, lower-tier candidates have been switching their preferences toward her.
Crystal Ball CBS Reveals Precise Democrat Delegate Counts Months Before Primaries https://t.co/FFvJbksAjr
— NewsBusters (@newsbusters) September 10, 2019
Politico reports that at this stage of the game, some of Biden’s prominent supporters and surrogates are getting “nervous.” His rivals are waiting in the wings to capitalize on his inevitable future screw-ups:
“There’s a clear worry among Biden supporters that he can’t be the front-runner from June of 2019 through July of 2020 … that eventually, the gaffes will pile up and he’ll come down,” said Ed Rendell, a former Pennsylvania governor and one of Biden’s most vocal supporters.
Many of Biden’s supporters, said Rendell, a former chairman of the Democratic National Committee, are “nervous as hell.”
In part, the anxiety surrounding Biden’s candidacy is rooted in the last presidential campaign. After Hillary Clinton was upset by Trump, many Democrats adopted a more sober view of what it means to be a front-runner.
And unlike in the 2016 primary — a two-person race between Clinton and Bernie Sanders — the primary this year is stacked with credible alternatives. William Owen, a DNC member from Tennessee who has endorsed Biden, said that although he expects Sanders and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, two more progressive Democrats in the race, to continue to split the support among the party’s left flank, “If one of them starts surging, we’re in trouble.”
Well, then they should probably be anxious right now because Warren is surging.
Biden has also been plagued with suggestions his support comes from people who are not enthusiastic about his candidacy. They support him because they believe he is the most electable. Some say the grassroots enthusiasm for Biden is not there, which could lead to big problems come time for the general election in the event he wins the nomination.
But will he be able to win it outright during the primaries, or be awarded at the Democratic National Convention in July 2020? Crucial state-level polls have some Democrats concerned they will not have a clear winner, at the convention. This means super delegates would have to decide:
But in the bar and hallways of a meeting here last week of the Democratic National Committee, some party insiders quietly expressed concern that the large field of 2020 candidates, new party rules and a front-loaded primary calendar could conspire to create a chaotic nominating convention next year.
“Unless something cataclysmic happens, I think we’re looking at a contested convention,” said Jim Zogby, a longtime DNC member and former member of the party’s executive committee. “I think we’re not going to get to the convention with an outright winner.”
All the top campaigns are taking the possibility of a contested convention seriously and have begun wooing the party’s 700-plus super delegates, who thanks to a new rule will only get to weigh in on a nominee if next year’s primaries and caucuses fail to produce a clear winner.
Sanders believes the Democrats stole the 2016 nomination from him and as a result, will stay in to settle some old scores instead of dropping out to help Biden or Warren. If Warren can maintain her campaign’s enthusiasm, she won’t drop out, either. She and her supporters would love to avenge Warren adviser Hillary Clinton’s 2016 loss by finally cracking the so-called glass ceiling.
Warren is a competitor if nothing else. I suspect the chance to take down the guy who thoroughly destroyed her fake Native American claims will motivate her to continue instead of dropping out to help Biden or Bernie.
Assuming that Biden, Sanders, and Warren remain in the top tier going into the primaries, it’s a strong possibility that a contested convention is indeed the most likely scenario.
Time to stock up on the popcorn.
— Stacey Matthews has also written under the pseudonym “Sister Toldjah” and can be reached via Twitter. —
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Comments
Since his support was PUSH POLLS I don’t think they crack, I think they get exposed.
Well, I guess,
lying (par for the course for any Democrat), hair plugs, chi-chi clothing, really expensive dental work, Botox, aviator sunglasses, Amani shirts with the top two buttons undone, plus a phony “doctor” as your wife,
will only get you so far.
I rather hope that Uncle Joe does poorly. After all someone has to run against Trump. Of the lot, Joe is the least offensive; I could imagine that quite a few independents et al who don’t like Trump could accept Biden as comparatively harmless.
I think that Bernie is too far out there for Middle America to embrace over Trump and jobs.
I also think that Warren, bad policy promises aside, is simply too unlikeable to be elected. She’s a scold, and I don’t -think- Americans like to be scolded.
So: I’d much prefer one of those two to win the Democratic nomination.
Off topic question: If Biden IS nominated, who one earth will they find to be his V.P.? The V.P. is traditionally supposed to be ‘The Invisible Man’ but Joe already has that role sewn up.
How about Michael Obama as Biden’s VP?
Speaking of the invisible man…..
Snark.
I think Biden worries people about his mental stability. The man has always been a gaffe machine, but this cycle has him making news more if he doesn’t put his foot in his mouth.
Obama covered for him throughout the 8 LONG years, Biden would show up, be fine for a short time then say and do something stupid and he was disappeared for weeks. It helped keep from public view his diminishing mental ability.
Biden will frighten voters off if he picks a wacko leftist as his running mate because he isn’t making people confident he would finish a term, so the VP will get a lot more attention.
Hillary concerned a lot of voters for her strange health issues which despite the propaganda wing of the DNC brushing them aside, it was talked about a lot. Biden and his past brain issues could very well be part of what makes him make so many gaffes, the one aneurysm was particularly bad and affected his speech centers of his brain. How comfortable are you having the top person of government having communication issues when dealing with other national leaders?
Add in his creepy hands bit and how that will play with other countries IS a huge concern. Plus, despite the MSM claims, Obama is not looked at all that favorably now that we see what real action was able to do to the economy.
At best Biden would be a placeholder for the VP choice. And Biden looks like he’s aged years in just the short time since throwing his plugs into the ring.
The Great Wall of China cracking?
LOL
One would think that if this trial got any press at all that ALL Democrats would be in trouble and Republicans wouldn’t have to spend $20 to get elected:
https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/breaking-testimony-reveals-obama-ag-urged-prosecution-of-pro-life-investigators-daleiden-and-merritt
Political positions aside, I think the Democrat Party base loathes the idea of an aging white heterosexual male being the nominee (particularly one as handsy as Biden). If he gets the nomination the base will do as they are told and fall in line, but they won’t like it.
I think an all-female ticket is the Democrats’ preference, although having a woman as the nominee for President with a homosexual as Veep would also be acceptable.
Democrats cheat among themselves also. It appears the MSM has not settled on their joint candidate, and are skirmishing among themselves.
Multiple factions in a fractured party combine to keep the door open for dopey slow Joe.
And, everyone else is crazier than a bedbug. Joe is just bedbug level crazy, plus he’s already bought and paid for. I never thought he would survive, but with the level of crazy in opposition he just might.
Since the left views everything through the lens of identity politics, I predict that the Dems will nominate a Warren/Harris ticket. And may God have mercy on us all.
Can’t be done.
Mayor Pete is going to come out as a transexual and demand he be the VP or in the top slot.
If Bernie wants to run on the Dem ticket, maybe he should actually /be/ one instead of just a nutbar mooching on their brand recognition.