Since Michigan state Sen. Mallory McMorrow exited the Democratic Senate primary earlier this month, polling has shown the race has tightened considerably between the two remaining candidates.
As Legal Insurrection recently reported, one poll from last week showed Rep. Haley Stevens (MI-11) and former Wayne County health department director Abdul El-Sayed running neck and neck, but with 18 percent of the Democratic primary voters surveyed saying they were still undecided:
This was a significant change in previous polls that showed El-Sayed in the driver’s seat and seeming to have all the momentum headed into the August 4th primary.
But a more recent poll that was taken after Michigan’s Democratic primary voters had a chance to digest McMorrow’s departure, El-Sayed’s continued anti-Israelism, and his documented whoppers about his Defund the Police stance and claiming to be a physician when he’s not one, shows a clear shift towards Stevens:
Most notably, where Stevens is besting El-Sayed is among black, older, and working-class Democratic voters:
Stevens’ strengths in the poll are with Black voters (67% to El-Sayed’s 21%), non-college-educated voters (56% to El-Sayed’s 34%), voters over age 55, Metro Detroit voters and traditional Democrats.
El-Sayed’s strengths are with the white, college-educated, younger Democratic voters and, of course, those who say they are Democratic Socialists:
El-Sayed is getting the most support from White voters (51% to Stevens’ 39%), college-educated voters (48% to Stevens’ 41%), outstate voters, those under age 55 and likely primary voters who identify as Democratic Socialists.
This is a trend we’ve seen in other Democratic primary races where elitist white leftists have been crucial for DSA-backed candidate victories, something Professor Jacobson has described as a key factor in the Great Realignment:
Pollster Richard Czuba told The Detroit News that El-Sayed’s overreliance on younger voters may hurt him down the line:
El-Sayed, for instance, is disproportionately relying on younger voters, especially those under 55 who are White and have a college education, and Czuba questioned whether there’s enough voters in that category to overtake Michigan’s older voter population.
“The difference in Michigan is our electorate is just so much older than, you know, New York,” Czuba said. “He’s got to broaden out his appeal. He’s doing reasonably well in outstate Michigan.”
While panicked establishment Democrats might be breathing a little easier after reading these latest polling numbers, they shouldn’t get too comfortable because Stevens… well, let’s just say if she wins the primary, Trump-backed former congressman Mike Rogers (MI-08), who is the presumptive GOP nominee, has a lot of material to work with:
Yeah.
– Stacey Matthews has also written under the pseudonym “Sister Toldjah” and can be reached via X. –
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