MI Democratic Senate Poll: Stevens Up Big With Black Voters, El-Sayed Backed by White Leftists

MI Democratic Senate Poll: Stevens Up Big With Black Voters, El-Sayed Backed by White Leftists

Since Michigan state Sen. Mallory McMorrow exited the Democratic Senate primary earlier this month, polling has shown the race has tightened considerably between the two remaining candidates.

As Legal Insurrection recently reported, one poll from last week showed Rep. Haley Stevens (MI-11) and former Wayne County health department director Abdul El-Sayed running neck and neck, but with 18 percent of the Democratic primary voters surveyed saying they were still undecided:

Tavern Research poll | 7/6-7/7 LV

US Senate Michigan Democratic primary 2026

🟦Haley Stevens 42%
🟦Abdul El-Sayed 41%
Not sure 18%
——
🟦Abdul El-Sayed 41%
🟦Haley Stevens 38%
🟦Mallory McMorrow 5% (dropped out)
Not sure 16%

Link to poll: https://t.co/TwOtRKwAwQ pic.twitter.com/Nd4jTMKsJI

— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) July 8, 2026

This was a significant change in previous polls that showed El-Sayed in the driver’s seat and seeming to have all the momentum headed into the August 4th primary.

But a more recent poll that was taken after Michigan’s Democratic primary voters had a chance to digest McMorrow’s departure, El-Sayed’s continued anti-Israelism, and his documented whoppers about his Defund the Police stance and claiming to be a physician when he’s not one, shows a clear shift towards Stevens:

Michigan Senate Democratic Primary

🟦 Haley Stevens: 48%
🟦 Abdul El-Sayed: 41%
⬜️ Not sure: 10%
——
Fav-unfav
El-Sayed: 52-15 (+37)
Stevens: 50-24 (+26(
——
• Detroit News/The Glengariff Group
• July 8-11 | 500 LV | ±4.4%https://t.co/F3oBSy8Z1R pic.twitter.com/pWDbufrXQB

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 14, 2026

Most notably, where Stevens is besting El-Sayed is among black, older, and working-class Democratic voters:

Stevens’ strengths in the poll are with Black voters (67% to El-Sayed’s 21%), non-college-educated voters (56% to El-Sayed’s 34%), voters over age 55, Metro Detroit voters and traditional Democrats.

El-Sayed’s strengths are with the white, college-educated, younger Democratic voters and, of course, those who say they are Democratic Socialists:

El-Sayed is getting the most support from White voters (51% to Stevens’ 39%), college-educated voters (48% to Stevens’ 41%), outstate voters, those under age 55 and likely primary voters who identify as Democratic Socialists.

This is a trend we’ve seen in other Democratic primary races where elitist white leftists have been crucial for DSA-backed candidate victories, something Professor Jacobson has described as a key factor in the Great Realignment:

In a new poll, Haley Stevens is cleaning Abdul el Sayed's clock with working class voters—by nearly 20 points. And she's ahead with Black voters by 46 points (!). This is the same trend we've seen with all the DSA candidates. Socialism by and for white elites. https://t.co/MlXGyE06dA

— Batya Ungar-Sargon (@bungarsargon) July 14, 2026

Oh look, Stevens is beating AES with working class voters by 22% according to this poll.
Lots of narratives busted if that’s accurate. https://t.co/tHs3wTTCpg

— Neera Tanden🌻 (@neeratanden) July 14, 2026

The poll results are just so damning. The people El-Sayed claims to represent want no part of him. https://t.co/QYoBmcWe5k

— Marshall Herskovitz (@MHerskovitz) July 15, 2026

MI Senate crosstabs by Detroit News/Glengariff Group

🟦 Haley Stevens: 48%
🟧 Abdul El-Sayed: 41%
——
🟠 College: El-Sayed +7
🔵 No College: Stevens +22
🟠 White: El-Sayed +12
🔵 Black: Stevens +46
🔵 Already voted: Stevens +9
🟠 Election day voters: El-Sayed +18
🔵 Still… https://t.co/orpF3KqqD4 pic.twitter.com/CqjFUl5yp9

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 14, 2026

Pollster Richard Czuba told The Detroit News that El-Sayed’s overreliance on younger voters may hurt him down the line:

El-Sayed, for instance, is disproportionately relying on younger voters, especially those under 55 who are White and have a college education, and Czuba questioned whether there’s enough voters in that category to overtake Michigan’s older voter population.

“The difference in Michigan is our electorate is just so much older than, you know, New York,” Czuba said. “He’s got to broaden out his appeal. He’s doing reasonably well in outstate Michigan.”

While panicked establishment Democrats might be breathing a little easier after reading these latest polling numbers, they shouldn’t get too comfortable because Stevens… well, let’s just say if she wins the primary, Trump-backed former congressman Mike Rogers (MI-08), who is the presumptive GOP nominee, has a lot of material to work with:

Rep. Haley Stevens of Michigan shouts through the gavel during House debate on the coronavirus relief bill:

“To our doctors and nurses, I wear these latex gloves to tell every American: Do not be afraid!” pic.twitter.com/0oxkLwJ0Ss

— NBC Politics (@NBCPolitics) March 27, 2020

In the Senate primary, Michigan Democrats have a choice between a candidate who wants to abolish prisons and campaigns with Hasan Piker and whatever Haley Stevens is doing. pic.twitter.com/UqZeXy2BoA

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) July 13, 2026

WATCH: Democrat Senate candidate Haley Stevens appears visibly drunk and disorderly on camera.

Very embarrassing. pic.twitter.com/DehzAe19UJ

— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) June 22, 2026

Yeah.

– Stacey Matthews has also written under the  pseudonym “Sister Toldjah” and can be reached via X. –

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