The government remains shut down, but we have a few big races on November 4 that could drastically change the political landscape in a few states and cities.
Those races could also affect the rest of the country, as Democrats and Republicans will use them as guides for the 2026 midterms.
I gathered some information about those races for you.
Does the city win no matter who wins the mayoral race tomorrow? The people will likely elect socialist Zohran Mamdani.
Polls open tomorrow from 6 AM to 9 PM. However, over 735,000 people have voted early, too.
Anything that happens in New York City can affect the rest of the country. It’s the financial hub after all.
According to The New York Post, over 765,000 New Yorkers plan to leave the Big Apple if Mamdani wins:
If those residents were to leave, it would be equal to the population of Washington, DC, Las Vegas, or Seattle fleeing the city.Another 25% of New Yorkers — about 2.12 million — said they would “consider” packing up and leaving.Among high earners, 7% of those making over $250,000 a year said they would definitely flee.
Mamdani has a history of antisemitism, which should concern New York City’s Jewish population. By the way, the city has the highest Jewish population outside of Israel.
Mamdani is also stuck on the word free…even though anyone with a brain knows nothing free. Someone somewhere is paying for it. Free rent! Free buses! Free child care!
The socialist also wants to bump the minimum wage to $30 an hour by 2030. This one bothers me the most. It is the Big Mama domino because it leads to job losses, job relocation, and fewer work hours:
Contrary to progressive opinion, most academic assessments of state and local minimum wage hikes find disemployment effects like fewer jobs and employee hours, especially when the increases in the wage floor are large. The Congressional Budget Office estimated a federal $17 minimum wage by 2029 could eliminate up to 2 million jobs nationally. Given Mamdani’s proposed floor is much higher, even adjusted for New York’s higher productivity, significant employment losses, hours reductions, and business closures would be inevitable. Seattle’s much-cited experiment with a $15 minimum wage notably resulted in a meaningful reduction of hours worked for low-wage employees, for example.What’s more, a growing literature finds that even where firms avoid layoffs, they often adjust in ways that mitigate the net benefits to many low-skilled employees: by reducing non-wage benefits, altering schedules, cutting back on workplace amenities and training, demanding more of their workers, or hiring more experienced employees. There is no free lunch here.New York City’s small businesses, restaurants, corner stores, and hospitality venues—where labor constitutes the dominant cost—would bear severe pressure. New York’s geographical and economic context makes it susceptible to displacement effects too. Companies in industries not tied strictly to local consumption, such as production and logistics, might relocate facilities across nearby borders—like New Jersey or Connecticut—if New York City’s labor costs soar disproportionately. No handwavy theorizing about correcting for “monopsony power” will avoid those adjustments, given this wage floor will be approximately 75 percent of projected median hourly wages or still higher by 2030, even assuming robust wage growth.
Virginia will elect a new governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general.
The Washington Post claimed the Democrats and Republicans consider Virginia’s races “as a trial run for next year’s congressional midterm elections and a referendum on President Donald Trump’s policies.”
Polls are open from 6 AM to 7 PM.
Over one million people have already voted.
Either way, former Rep. Abigail Spanberger or Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Spears will become Virginia’s first female governor. Earle-Spears could become the first black female governor in the country!
Spanberger leads Earle-Spears by 11 points in the latest poll.
Then we have the attorney general race. Democrat Jay Jones leads Republican incumbent Jason Miyares, 49% to 47%.
Yes, Jones still leads despite those awful texts.
The New Jersey governor race is BONKERS. Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherill leads Republican Jack Ciattrelli 49% to 48%.
Who knows who will come out on top? This is Ciattrelli’s third straight governor race. He almost beat Phil Murphy in 2021.
Polls are open from 6 AM to 8 PM. Over 1.1 million people have already voted. As usual, the majority of the early voters are Democrats.
It’s another race being watched by Democrats and Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Cittarelli wants to lower property taxes, income taxes, and corporate taxes. However, I haven’t found much of his plan to cut spending. You cannot cut your revenue if you don’t cut spending.
Sherrill is your typical Democrat. Her “Affordability Agenda” includes housing, tax relief, child care, food prices, and freezing utility hikes.
How will California vote on Prop 50? The polling looks like it will pass.
Gov. Gavin Newsom is obsessed with redistricting the heavily blue state to carve out more blue districts:
Voters in heavily blue California will vote in November on whether to set aside their popular nonpartisan redistricting commission for the rest of the decade and allow the Democrat-dominated legislature to determine congressional redistricting for the next three election cycles.The vote will be the culmination of an effort by Gov. Gavin Newsom and California Democrats to create up to five left-leaning congressional seats in the Golden State to counter the new maps that conservative Gov. Greg Abbott signed into law a couple of months ago, which will create up to five more right-leaning U.S. House districts in the red state of Texas.
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