Things are moving fast.
Here’s my “hot take” with two weeks to go until election day.
So we’re two weeks away from the election, of course voting has started already in many places, but election day is two weeks from today.
I’m thinking back to over the summer, August 2nd, I talked to you about not getting sucked into Operation Demoralize, that the polling was garbage over the summer, they were trying to create a narrative that all was over, that Harris was the sure winner. I said don’t believe that for a secondk it happens every cycle. I repeated that again a couple of weeks after that in August and told you to ignore the polling over the summer.
I don’t get everything right, I get a lot wrong, but I got that right because what I said back then is this is going to come down and it’s going to be a tight race and don’t believe anybody who tells you otherwise in the middle of August. And we are now two weeks out from the election and it is a tight race.
I think by all estimations the momentum is with Trump, the energy is with Trump, the polling is with Trump, not overwhelmingly, still very tight, but the polling is with him particularly in the swing states.
And there’s something else, intangibles. You know major unions that always endorse the Democrat candidate have decided not to endorse this year. I forget if it was the Teamsters or the United Auto workers, but one of them ran an internal poll and Trump got two-thirds of the vote and then the ynion leadership announced they weren’t going to endorse.
Those intangibles lead me to think we could be on the cusp of a major victory. Of course it could go either way, there’s a lot of polling that says she’s going win, but I don’t believe that. Really, I think the momentum is with Trump and part of it is he’s really connecting with the public, he’s having a lot of fun he’s coming across as very natural. The McDonald’s visit, where you know the left and the Democrats are completely freaking out about, I think was a huge hit and just another example of him connecting with the voters and connecting with people.
Harris by contrast did one of the most cringe videotapes for the Al Smith dinner ,which is a large Catholic dinner in New York City. Trump went there and really knocked it out of the park with about a 25 minute comedy routine, frankly, very funny.
Harris didn’t even show up. She did a recording with some woman from Saturday Night Live I bet you at least three-quarters of the people watching, including me, have no idea who this woman is but it was highly offensive, it was you know amateurish. Why can’t she even give a speech herself.
There’s something cringe about her, something that is not connecting with people and I think that’s why today the Los Angeles Times said they’re not going to endorse. That’s you know almost unheard of that they’re not going to endorse her.
So there’s something about her that gives the feeling of almost being on the verge of collapse. Can’t get, you know as Professor Glenn Reynolds says, don’t get cocky, could go either way.
But getting back to Trump, he really has come into his own in this campaign and I think the McDonald’s visit pretty much summed it up.
So where we are two weeks away?
Trump has the momentum, Trump has the polling, Harris has the cringe and people seem to be running for the exits on her and that’s probably the worst sign that she could possibly have. When the major unions who always get out the vote for the Democrat are walking away from her that’s the biggest sign that she’s got major problems.
So we’ll be back in two weeks, two weeks and a couple of days because we’ve already been told that key states are not going to report that night, which is completely insane and will just give rise to more suspicion about the integrity of the election. I remember long before 2020 the running joke used to be in Pennsylvania you need to win by the margin of fraud and that’s just going to feed that sort of narrative again.
So stay tuned. I was right about Operation Demoralize but whichever candidate runs through the ribbon is going to be the winner. Right now it’s certainly looking like Trump.
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