“I think we peaked a little early” says one liberal operative, as the NY Times and other leading Democrat media platforms vocalize impending doom.
Well, well, well.
What a difference a month and one-half makes. Remember on August 28 I warned how the media was using junk polling by garbage firms to spin the false narrative of a Democrat comeback, all for the purpose of demoralizing Republican voters, Operation Demoralize Is Back:
I understand how demoralizing the current situation is. The border is wide open. The full apparatus of the criminal justice system from DOJ to FBI to state prosecutors are weaponized for Democrat political purposes. To his (dis)credit, Biden has been able to do substantial and long-lasting damage to the country with just a 50/50 Senate.
Yet the narrative as recently as a month ago was that a red wave was coming in November.
That has changed. There is a concerted media effort to create the counter-narrative that the red wave has failed….
It happens every election cycle. Operation Demoralize.
“The media swarms and lies. Tells you it’s over, wants you to give up. Happens every single time.”
Because the narrative was build on spin, it didn’t take very long to unravel. By September 25, it was clear that Operation Demoralize Has Failed:
I’m not predicting specific election outcomes, but it’s pretty clear that Operation Demoralize has failed. The recent “likely voter” as opposed to “registered voter” generic ballot polling points to a strong Republican lead in a measure that has a history of predicting overall control of congress….
The ABC/WaPo poll released today is particularly gruesome for Democrats, particularly on their supposed ace-in-the-hole issue, abortion. Turns out on issues that motivate voters to actually vote, it’s not top priority….
There are other details in the poll that in isolation may not have significantly large samples to be reliable in isolation, but do mirror what we’ve seen elsewhere, such as Republican strength with independents and the closing of the black and hispanic gaps ….
To what should be attributed the turnaround from the dismal days of late August? First and foremost, the media narrative of a Democrat comeback was an illusion fed by garbage “registered voter” polling by garbage firms. So it never was there to begin with.
My gut also tells me that Biden’s “red” speech also was a wake up call and motivator. He was so over the top in his dehumanization of “MAGA Republicans,” and his DOJ/FBI are so politicized and weaponized, that there has been a great awakening. Maybe the only success of the speech was to awaken sleeping Republican voters.
Since late April, the red trend has continued, and while of course ‘anything’ is possible, it seems highly likely Republicans will retake the House, the only issue is by how much. With the loss of the House, Democrats ability to investigate disappears and with it the ability to leak with impunity and to provide pretext for the FBI to raid Republicans.
While retaking the Senate is a tougher call, the trend also favors Republicans. If there are unforeseen upsets, it’s likely to be against blue Senators like fake Vietnam war vet Dick Blumenthal who in the latest poll for a local newspaper only leads 5% with 7% undecided:
The latest polls also suggest that few likely voters are splitting their ballots, at least on the state and national levels, with Sen. Richard Blumenthal leading challenger Leora Levy by a margin of just 5 points, 49% to 44% with 7% undecided – numbers that surprised Dancey.
“I would’ve expected a bigger lead for Blumenthal,” said Dancey.
The NY Times is hitting the panic button, not to motivate Democrats because that’s too late, but to point out the impending doom so no one can say the Times got it wrong:
Republicans enter the final weeks of the contest for control of Congress with a narrow but distinct advantage as the economy and inflation have surged as the dominant concerns, giving the party momentum to take back power from Democrats in next month’s midterm elections, a New York Times/Siena College poll has found.
The poll shows that 49 percent of likely voters said they planned to vote for a Republican to represent them in Congress on Nov. 8, compared with 45 percent who planned to vote for a Democrat. The result represents an improvement for Republicans since September, when Democrats held a one-point edge among likely voters in the last Times/Siena poll. (The October poll’s unrounded margin is closer to three points, not the four points that the rounded figures imply.)
With inflation unrelenting and the stock market steadily on the decline, the share of likely voters who said economic concerns were the most important issues facing America has leaped since July, to 44 percent from 36 percent — far higher than any other issue. And voters most concerned with the economy favored Republicans overwhelmingly, by more than a two-to-one margin.
Worse still, the Times’ poll showed Democrats losing independents, particularly the women (are we allowed to say “women”?). But abortion, but abortion:
But the poll showed that Republicans opened up a 10-percentage point lead among crucial independent voters, compared with a three-point edge for Democrats in September, as undecided voters moved toward Republicans.
The biggest shift came from women who identified as independent voters. In September, they favored Democrats by 14 points. Now, independent women backed Republicans by 18 points — a striking swing given the polarization of the American electorate and how intensely Democrats have focused on that group and on the threat Republicans pose to abortion rights.
There is complete panic is Democrat media land following the Times article. Politico points out that Democrats’ midterm hopes fade: ‘We peaked a little early’:
“I’m wishing the election were in August,” said Matt Bennett of the center-left group Third Way. “I think we peaked a little early.” …
“Look, man, I’ve been at this for 30 years, and it is always the period in late September and early October when an election starts to tilt and move,” said Mark Longabaugh, a progressive ad maker who worked on Bernie Sanders’ 2016 campaign. “So, we’re at that moment, and I don’t think you can look at these numbers across the country and say anything but it looks like it’s moving in Republicans’ direction.”
New York Magazine laments:
After quite the back-and-forth during the spring and summer months, the consensus among pollsters and political experts seems to be that the 2022 midterms will indeed be a Republican “wave election.” The New York Times says so. CNN’s Harry Enten says so. The Financial Times says so. And the betting markets say so.
The Hill says hey, maybe it wasn’t so smart for Democrats to obsess on abortion:
Democrats have focused much of their campaign pitches on abortion rights after the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade roiled up their base….
But now the party is facing questions about that strategy….
Democrats saw abortion rights as a winning issue as GOP governors and state lawmakers moved to adopt more extreme measures. They pointed to independents as a group that could be won over.
But the closing message on abortion was always a gamble, now perhaps more than ever with gas prices again rising and inflation proving to be stubborn.
Democrats are pulling an Operation Demoralize again. But it’s on their own voters.DONATE
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