Lefties Fret That Faulty Polling Is “Giving Democrats False Hope” For The Midterms
“At this point I think it’s fair to say that Biden’s pursuit of and attacks on ‘MAGA Republicans’ has created an army of voters who will be virtually impossible to poll (even for us) and more difficult still to estimate.”
For some reason, Democrats believe that Joe “I am the Democratic Party” Biden has turned the ship around and is leading the Democrats across a calm sea toward a victorious midterm election in which they make glorious gains in both the House and Senate. Stop laughing. They really believe that. Or they did last week.
This week, lefties are fretting that Biden’s demonic speech dehumanizing tens of millions of normal Americans because they don’t support his America Last policies may be making it even harder for pollsters to accurately predict November’s election.
A leading independent pollster said Saturday that polls might seriously undercount Republican voters in the current political climate.
In a Twitter thread, Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert C. Cahaly said that President Joe Biden’s recent attacks on so-called “MAGA Republicans” will make polling supporters of former President Donald Trump even harder to poll than in previous years. Cahaly pointed out that in the last two presidential election cycles, name-calling and threats from prominent Democrats contributed to the phenomenon of the “shy Trump voter.” But as the 2022 midterms have begun in earnest, Biden’s escalating rhetoric against Trump supporters, accusing them of embracing “semi-fascism” and being a threat to America, will make these voters even harder to reach in polling.
. . . . “In 2020 people who supported Trump or espoused conservative values out of step with ‘Woke’ culture found themselves being ‘canceled’ or ‘doxed,’” Cahaly continued. “This led to ‘hidden voters’ that ‘most’ polling under counted, therefore Trump support in key battleground states exceeded expectations. Now [the] Biden administration has essentially classified ‘MAGA Republicans’ as a threat to democracy marshaling federal law enforcement to focus on them. This move has created a new type of voter that will be even harder to poll or even estimate.”
. . . . “I call this new group ‘submerged voters,’” Cahaly went on. “They aren’t putting stickers on their cars, signs in their yards, posting their opinions, or even answering polls. At this point I think it’s fair to say that Biden’s pursuit of and attacks on ‘MAGA Republicans’ has created an army of voters who will be virtually impossible to poll (even for us) and more difficult still to estimate.”
”The 2022 Republican turnout will likely be higher than any of the polls or models are showing,” he concluded. “All polls (including ours) will understate the impact of these ‘submerged voters.’”
Sometimes unintended consequences are funny.
You can view the tweets here.
And it’s not just the Trafalgar Group’s leading pollster expressing concern, even Obama clown Dan Pfeiffer is sounding the alarm.
The polling addicts got a rude awakening last week.
Nate Cohn — as he often does — rained on the Democrats’ recent parade of optimism with a column that sent a lot of progressives into a rage (and others into the fetal position).
Early in the 2020 cycle, we noticed that Joe Biden seemed to be outperforming Mrs. Clinton in the same places where the polls overestimated her four years earlier. That pattern didn’t necessarily mean the polls would be wrong — it could have just reflected Mr. Biden’s promised strength among white working-class voters, for instance — but it was a warning sign.
That warning sign is flashing again: Democratic Senate candidates are outrunning expectations in the same places where the polls overestimated Mr. Biden in 2020 and Mrs. Clinton in 2016.
It’s been six years since the great polling miss of 2016. We probably aren’t paying enough attention to the miss in 2020; still, as the polls predicted, Biden won. But the margins were way off in a lot of states. The industry seems no closer to solving the problem now than it was in the aftermath of Trump’s win. It’s not for lack of trying. I can only speak for the Democrats, but our polling community is filled with highly motivated, very smart individuals with massive incentives to get this right. The problem may not yet be fixed which raises the possibility that the polling problem is unfixable.
. . . . The truth is no one knows, but the results in this upcoming election will tell us a lot about if the last two presidential elections were polling flukes or if polling now is beyond repair. If it’s the former, we can go back to a healthy skepticism of polls. If it’s the latter, the art and science of politics is in for a massive overhaul.
Polling is unfixable in this climate due to the left’s own actions. The Democrats’ solution is a familiar and terrifying overhaul of the “art and science of politics”: demonize political opposition, send the federal government (FBI, DOJ, IRS) after dissenters, and lock up or otherwise nullify those dissident voices.
Remember, when Democrats wail about “our Democracy,” they literally mean their version of it, a version in which there is one-party rule, and their party is the one “ruling” over all Americans. It’s anti- and unAmerican, but then, so are they.
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Comments
Polling can only gage what people are willing to say. Not what they actually think.
We will be submarine voters, popping up to torpedo what is left of Dems for many years to come.
Hear, hear!
“Run Silent… Run deep…”
I actually had the pollster call me the other day. His first question was whether I supported Biden’s agenda or not. My answer, “No, I don’t support the pedophile-in-chief or any of the communist crap he’s pulled.” That one set the tone for the rest of the call.
I would never vent like that. “I’m sorry but I am not paying attention to politics at this time.” Let them be lulled into false optimism!
I just tell any pollsters that it’s not safe expressing opinions in today’s culture, so I don’t respond to polls.
I just block any numbers I don’t recognize. Saves time.
Yeah, I’ve been wondering if the rhetoric coming from democrats over the last few weeks has suppressed the voters’ willingness to tell the truth about preferred candidates. It’s quite frightening when you are told disagreement with the grand potentate of the people’s republic of America brand you an enemy of the state.
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2022/09/the_dems_fanatic_antimaga_sentiment_is_rendering_polling_pretty_useless.html
This seems to be the case in my neighborhood, 2020 lots of yard signs both ways but visually Trump more. This week still nothing for Republicans some for Fetterman and Shapiro. Yet lots of houses with American flags out every day and that and any kind of Leftist showing ( the Hate has no home here as a example) are not often compatible.
Several networks say that “Abortion” is going to save the Democrat Party. And, people block walking for the GOP are telling me that that is the number 1 objection they are hearing. So, the question is whether people will vote for their own economic demise and cast a symbolic stone against an issue that is not even on the ballot.
I don’t think Abortion is going to save the Democrats, but it will increase turnout dramatically and make the contest closer.
It is not a symbolic issue either. The prospect of any national abortion restrictions has a lot of people very upset.
And then Lindsay Graham comes along and hands the Dems a hammer with which they can pound Republican candidates.
That was a deliberate action by Graham on behalf of the GOPe. His bill is unconstitutional on its face according to the Supreme Court. But his introducing the bill furthers the goal of the Republican Party leadership to try to keep at least one House in the hands of the Democrats, if not both. They do not want to win.
Subotai Bahadur
Everywhere I have seen so far that has abortion one of the top three issues are location that are unwinably blue anyway.
It doesn’t seem to be an impacting issue in the GA senate race.
Shapiro seems to be almost invisible. It’s like he is spending his own money on ads.
Do ‘semi-fascist’ enemies of the state talk to anonymous alleged pollsters, most of whom are leftists, and honestly answer their questions?
Would you if you thought maybe you might be targeted by Biden’s Gestapo for wrong-think and/or as a ‘domestic terrorist’?
Precisely. They are getting it all wrong; forcing us underground actually strengthens us because we can unleash our fury at the ballot box, where it really counts.
We can TRY to unleash our fury at the ballot box [and I will, hand-carrying my vote to the County Clerk’s office because it may well be the last chance I have to cast a vote]. But we already know that the integrity of the election system is in question. And we know that the Left is acting like they have nothing to worry about. If we lose this election, there is no reason to assume that there will be another that means anything.
Subotai Bahadur
I think this depends on where you live. Dem-run cities and precincts have ALWAYS been rife with corruption, but I don’t worry here because good people run our elections. If you don’t trust your local or state elections, you need to move. Or try to take them back. Either way, though, you need to fix it or remove yourself from it because it’s a local problem, not a national one.
It’s very much a national problem. They just stole a Presidential election
Moving won’t help win presidential elections, because of the Electoral College. Stay in a state that votes blue, and your electors will still be blue. Go to a state votes red, and the electors from that state will remain red. The numbers of red and blue electors won’t change just because you move.
(Mind you, I support the Electoral College, when voting is administered in the states in accordance with Article I of the Constitution.)
Though as population decreases in blue States and increases in Red States the apportionment of CD and thus members of the EC shift as well.
I having been opening up more than ever before and finding rather large numbers of like minded people. There is real hope of turning this around.
Shy Trump voters become secretive f*** you Dems! Trump voters.
Forcing us underground does suppress campaign contributions though, and would partly explain why Republican candidates are being trounced in fundraising – often by ratios of 10:1 or more. Saturation ads on TV do move the needle enough to win close races.
Shy Trump voters? Submerged voters?
Try seething Trump voters. Dumbasses.
Yep, and the more Team Biden goes for the evil fascist “Dark Biden” look, the more people even on the left are turned off. Thank the Good Lord their side is stupid.
Biden’s Fourth Reich must be stopped!
Right on!
Submerged seems like a fair description. These are the folks who aren’t vocal but are plenty upset they pay the utilities, buy gas and groceries. The problem the left have is that they have used astroturf protests and rent a mob tactics and a compliant media to overstate their actual level of support for so long that they believe their own BS.
Average folks have plenty of reasons to be upset and they know what party to blame. More figure it every day. That’s why the d/prog are so desperate to stop the influence of new media. They believe that certain categories of voters owe them allegiance and are terrified that the ongoing political realignment will leave them out of power.
They know that outside of one party States and deep blue enclaves under machine rule they are likely to be rejected this midterm. Where the d/prog lack those structural advantages and must run a competitive race they are vulnerable. Heck, Oregon is a good example of how even those advantages can be overcome. The NJ Gov race last year was nearly a disaster for d/prog despite the r being vastly outspent. If that race had this year’s inflation and economic challenges as well then the r likely wins.
Unfortunately in my once red county, now purple and definitely blue neighborhood, I see endless beto signs
How ridiculous is that?
They have dug I To I fear
I’m guessing you’re living in Travis County? I hear that place has been overrun by progressive plants- probably economic migrants from the Big Tech industry.
But tomorrow I will be riding my electric bike around the 1100 house neighborhood with my 4×6 foot Trump flag
Boy that will piss them
Off!!!
A Prius with one of those FJB Edition trim plates would work, but only for the observant.
Just in passing, I get polling phone calls all the time. I refuse to answer them, assuming that they are rigged for the Left in some way.
Why help the enemy?
Subotai Bahadur
I never get them
Do you have a land line?
I don’t answer if I don’t know the caller. And these pollsters are not known to me. And if I did end up with them, I would lie anyway. Why announce myself as an “enemy of the state” and a person who is a “threat to the very soul of our nation”? Naw, keep your polls, I will vote at the polling station that actually matters.
You can bet on them knowing who supports Trump, that is why all those IRS agents are being hired. They will be Dem Gestapo.
Easily avoided. I block any number I don’t recognize or have in my “phonebook”.
Mine go:
“Do you have moment to answer a few questions?”
“What’s in it for me?”
That’s usually it right there.
Pollsters. They’re lucky society lets them out of their homes without a Big Red Nose Mandate.
Good response.
“What’s your relationship with the deceased? (Hey Charlie – make sure you get some good photos of those blood streaks on the wall! Yeah! over there near the body!)”
You go on the ‘refuses to answer questions’ list.
Which may be shared with Biden’s Gestapo if it becomes ‘necessary’.
For a related example — See reports about how Facebook spied on users’ private DMs and reported users who questioned the legitimacy of the election to Biden’s Gestapo.
I don’t think people fully realize just how true that is.
They not only listen to your answers but record in their comments how you “acted” ( or their perception of it)
They are in fact building profiles and the only reason to build these things is to eventually use them.
That, or end up in more lists for harassment.
Bill and Hillary’s campaign of slander is still in place, as anybody watching can tell.
Here is a verified email from from Patrick Healy, National Political Correspondent, New York Times, to members of the Clinton campaign. Circulation information is available, as well.
https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/59194
>We’re told that President Clinton (like Mrs. Clinton and some other Dems) thinks that Trump would be a formidable opponent in the general election, and that Dems are in a form of denial if they dismiss Trump as a joke who would be easily defeated in November. President Clinton, like others, thinks that Trump has his finger on the pulse of the electorate’s mood and that only a well-financed, concerted campaign portrayed him as dangerous and bigoted will win what both Clintons believe will be a close November election.
>We’re told that President Clinton (like Mrs. Clinton and many other Dems) thinks the single greatest weapon against Trump is Trump’s own instinct to make outrageous, divisive, even hateful comments that can come across as unpresidential. He, Mrs. Clinton, and the campaign all agree that they will need to seize on opportunities to paint Trump as extremist and recklessly impulsive.
Democrats rely on slander and violence. It’s getting old.
The polling is designed so that when they steal critical elections, it’s more believable.
And yet, pollsters still oversample democrats by 15-25% and keep the Independents down in the teens
The lefty pollsters are STILL putting out voter suppression polls that oversample the heck out of Democrats in order to make it seem like it’s a lost cause to come out and vote for the Republican candidates. DON’T BELIEVE THEM!
Nobody who lived through the “Hillary’s a shoo-in” years believes them anymore.
The truth is nobody knows what is going to happen on Nov 8. The Left certainly has done its part to squelch Republican voters from being vocal to pollsters, but Dobbs has also shaken up the map. The polling on that Kansas referendum was off by a whopping 18 pts. Now, that is some sampling error ! I think both sides are angry and energized, and we will have record turnout for a Midterm. My guess is it will be a very close election, with a lot of surprise outcomes in both directions, and many contests going into overtime, with recounts and runoffs. If I have to predict, I’ll say we won’t know for sure who will control the next Congress on Nov 9, and won’t know for sure until sometime in December at least.
When the persons conducting the poll makes a mistake in obtaining info, the results are not accurate.
Just ask President Dewey.
I live in California. Most of geographic CA is deep red; the cities are the deepest of blue. I live in red-ish CA. Trump country. Deplorables, semi-facists, generally good people. If you stop on a lonely road at night, someone will pull up next to you and ask if you need help.
You see next to zero Trump bumper stickers. Ask any body shop why–you will get keyed in a few days. Priuses with Biden, Save the Whales, whatever are safe.
The few Trump stickers you do see are on some lifted pickup truck that generally exudes: “Don’t Tread on Me”. (That is often next to the Trump sticker)
Pardon my paranoia. How do I know that “pollster” is legit? How do I know that my name isn’t going on some “list”. I generally don’t answer numbers I don’t recognize, but I would NEVER answer questions truthfully. I MIGHT just answer like a Brandon voter, just to F with them.
I live in a deep blue state in which many neighbors display those ridiculous signs that begin “In this household….we believe……love is love, science is real….” and other meaningless slogans. Thus I would never display any political signs, nor would I ever answer any poll questions., a sad comment on the current state of polarization in our country. And since Biden’s recent threatening speech, many fear retaliation for any displays or expressions of political preferences. Perhaps this is the reason why the J6 “offenders” have been kept in jail endlessly without due process. I am not aware of any previous times in this country that these concerns ever arose. We need more research into questions of just how threatened some of us may be, and on what basis such punishments might be meted out to larger numbers of Americans……and what can be done about this current state of affairs. Is defeat at the ballot box enough to change the current state? Or will it require swamp-cleaning of powerful un-elected bureaucrats that perhaps only someone of Trump’s determination can accomplish?
I should have admitted that my deep blue state is indeed California, and I live in a very blue city as well. I envy the earlier Californian who lives in a reddish part of the state !
PedoHitler Declaring War on Voters didn’t move the needle in the direction they expected?