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Florida Redistricting Map Netting Republicans Several Seats Reinstated By State Appeals Court

Florida Redistricting Map Netting Republicans Several Seats Reinstated By State Appeals Court

National assessment: “The GOP is positioned for a net gain of four to six seats in 2022 just thanks to the new lines alone. Republicans have benefited from their own brazen cartography in states like Florida and courts striking down Democratic gerrymanders in Maryland and New York.”

This has not been a good week for Democrats’ redistricting hopes. In NY, the map proposed by a court-appointed Special Master wipes out the 3-4 seats Democrats hoped to gain, and its leading Democrat incumbents against one another in new districts. We covered NY in New York Redistricting Turns From Dem Triumph To Dem Washout and Progressive Rep. Torres Accuses DCCC Chairman of Racism as Panicked NY Democrats Turn Fire on Each Other

Florida redistricting was the flip side of the original NY gains, with the map proposed by Ron DeSantis as approved by the legislature to gain Republicans 3-4 seats, DeSantis Proposed Congressional Map May Wipe Out Dems National Redistricting Advantage, Says NBC News.

The advantage DeSantis had, I wrote at the time, was that his map was developed by opposing racial gerrymandering in a district designed to keep a black Congressman in office:

DeSantis, however, refuses to keep the [Rep. Al] Lawson district because it was racially gerrymandered to keep Lawson in Congress, and DeSantis wants no part of racial gerrymandering…. So DeSantis did his usual jiu-jitsu, taking a hot button issue (a black congressional district racially gerrymandered) and turning it into a winning political issue.

The DeSantis map was put on hold by a state court trial judge who issued a temporary restraining order. Under Florida law, the TRO was subject to an automatic stay, but the trial judge lifted the stay, effectively putting the TRO back into effect and taking the map out of effect.

An appeals court today reinstated the stay pending appeal, meaning the TRO no longer is operative and the map is restored. The Appeals Court Order provides:

This case is an appeal of a temporary injunction, a non-final order over which this
court has jurisdiction for the purpose of review.

Based on a preliminary review, the court has determined there is a high likelihood
that the temporary injunction is unlawful, because by awarding a preliminary remedy to the
appellees’ on their claim, the order “frustrated the status quo, rather than preserved it.”
Planned Parenthood of Greater Orlando, Inc. v. MMB Properties, 211 So. 3d 918, 925
(Fla. 2017); see also Bowling v. Nat’l Convoy & Trucking Co., 135 So. 541, 544 (Fla. 1931)
(explaining that a temporary injunction is erroneous if “its effect would be to change the
status [quo]” or “to destroy the existing condition of the subject-matter of the suit”); id.
(defining the “status quo” in a case as “the last actual, peaceable, noncontested condition
which preceded the pending controversy”).

Given the exigency of the circumstances and the need for certainty and continuity
as election season approaches, on the court’s own motion, the stay of the temporary
injunction is reinstated pending the court’s disposition of the motion for review of the trial
court’s vacatur of the automatic stay, which will be promptly forthcoming.

The secretary’s motion to file a reply is granted, and the reply attached thereto will
be docketed as of the date the motion was filed.

It appears there will be an attempt to take the case to the Florida Supreme Court. The Jacksonville Tribune reports:

DeSantis’ office praised the decision.

“We’re pleased with the First District Court of Appeal’s decision to reinstate the automatic stay,” his office said in a statement. “As the First District correctly noted, there is a high likelihood that the circuit court’s temporary injunction is unlawful. To avoid uncertainty and confusion in the upcoming 2022 primary and general elections, it’s important to move forward expeditiously to implement the congressional map passed by the legislature and signed by the governor.”

U.S. Rep. Al Lawson, the Democrat who currently represents the 5th Congressional District at the center of the litigation, said in a statement that he is “confident that the Florida Supreme Court will undo today’s action and reinstate constitutional districts for North Florida in time for the 2022 election.”

Here’s the overall national redistricting assessment from 538:

Although Republicans went into the cycle with control over drawing more districts, redistricting has actually chipped away at the GOP bias in the House of Representatives. So far, redistricting has created seven more Democratic-leaning seats nationally vs. one more Republican-leaning seat. This is due to aggressive map-drawing by Democrats in states such as Illinois as well as court decisions overturning Republican gerrymanders in states like North Carolina.

After accounting for incumbency, however, Republicans are actually the ones who have gained ground from redistricting so far: The GOP is positioned for a net gain of four to six seats in 2022 just thanks to the new lines alone. Republicans have benefited from their own brazen cartography in states like Florida and courts striking down Democratic gerrymanders in Maryland and New York. Republicans have also shored up their existing position by converting light-red districts into safer seats in states like Texas.

With 28 districts yet to be drawn and lawsuits still pending in several states, the exact partisan upshot of redistricting is still subject to change.

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Comments

OwenKellogg-Engineer | May 20, 2022 at 9:54 pm

Gotta love those cartographers!

I appreciate you sharing this. This drama here in Florida continues. Qualifying ends on noon, June 17th for all races. So if there is going to be a change by the Florida Supreme Court concerning Congressional Redistricting, time is running out fast.

DeSantis fights

    CommoChief in reply to gonzotx. | May 21, 2022 at 9:17 am

    More importantly he chooses his fights, reconnoiters the political and legal terrain, prepares the battlefield in advance of conflict, engages the opposition relentlessly and secures victories.

    Willingness to fight is only the first step. We should demand that our political leaders to do much more than be willing to fight; we should all want victories.

      Whitewall in reply to CommoChief. | May 21, 2022 at 9:28 am

      Military discipline. Political sophistication. Ability to speak well and on point. A Democrat’s nightmare.

      gonzotx in reply to CommoChief. | May 21, 2022 at 9:30 am

      Without Trump there would be no DeSantis, he would not have won Florida governorship.

        CommoChief in reply to gonzotx. | May 21, 2022 at 11:03 am

        Tell you what, let’s grant your point for argument sake. Now please compare and contrast the relative legislative accomplishments of DeSantis while enjoying a r controlled State Legislature with that of DJT while enjoying r control of HoR and Senate in 2017 and 2018.

        Winning election to office is only the first step in getting your policy agenda enacted into law. Were they equally successful in herding reluctant and sometimes very timid legislators to rally behind their policies. If not why not? Serious questions with answers legitimately sought so I can better understand your position. I await your reasoned and evidence based responses that explore these questions.

          The Gentle Grizzly in reply to CommoChief. | May 21, 2022 at 3:13 pm

          I think you are in for a long wait.

          Barry in reply to CommoChief. | May 21, 2022 at 8:21 pm

          Flat out bullshit.
          Trump had a republican party that was 90% opposed as they are nothing more than marxist light theirselves.

          So you think DeSantic, because of his superior political skillset is going to get Mitch McConnell and all the other bought by china politicians to do what Trump couldn’t get done?

          You think DeSantis can get the wall built, get money appropriated for it when Trump couldn’t?

          What are you smoking?

          CommoChief in reply to CommoChief. | May 21, 2022 at 8:51 pm

          Barry,

          Same questions to you. I am interested in your answers. Note I made zero claim as to which had a better record, assuming there is a distinct difference in their legislative accomplishments.

          I will be happy to vote for DJT or DeSantis as the eventual nominee. Both will be solid on Judicial appointments and careful about whom they nominate for Cabinet and other SR executive branch positions to exclude weasels/globalist/WEF/rino. Neither will engage us in foreign adventures on behalf of defense contractor / special interests. Both will be solid in addressing border security and interior enforcement/removals.

          The difference between them may come down to effectiveness in advancing their policy priorities through the legislative branch. I am simply posing a question to ONLY Trump advocates to do a compare and contrast between the two.

          Marlboro is the answer to your question. I will continue to wait for your answer to my question.

          Barry in reply to CommoChief. | May 21, 2022 at 9:41 pm

          As I stated, your wording is BS, and I’m sure you know it.

          I already answered. Trump had to fight the republican party just as much as the democrat party. This had nothing, zero, nada to do with personality. The R party is nearly as corrupt as the D party and did not want the fundamental change to make America better.

          DeSantis has a very compliant legislature in Florida, good for him and he is taking advantage of it. But should he inhabit the WH and try to install officials dedicated to Americans, or push legislation helping Americans, he will face the same wall that Trump did. Pretending otherwise is either dishonest or flat out political ignorance.

          The problem is the republican party at the national level. They are as corrupt as the democrats.

          CommoChief in reply to CommoChief. | May 21, 2022 at 10:25 pm

          Barry,

          That was AN answer but not of the question I posed. I will happily concede that the makeup of the FL legislature is currently more accommodating than that of a Senate led by McConnell and a HoR led by Ryan; which is what DJT faced in 2017/18.

          On the other hand DeSantis was able to force the legislature to go back to the drawing board when they tried to rino on redistricting. He rejected their work product, substituted own plan and made them approve it. Thereby not allowing easy wins for d/prog. That’s leadership.

          That wasn’t the first time he he has forced back fits of rino weaseldom from the legislature. He used his strength and patience to break them to his will like one trains a dog.

          Perhaps he drew the correct lesson from DJT not vetoing the bloated budget without border wall funding that Ryan and McConnell handed him. Had DJT vetoed that and held his ground for complete funding of his signature campaign issue who knows if they would have caved to him instead.

          That’s not a shot at DJT. I’m sure some of the weasels around him convinced him to fight another day; perhaps his rino son in law was the decisive voice among his close circle.

          Y’all in the ONLY Trump camp will need to do a better job of selling than simply cursing at those of us who aren’t afraid of holding a competitive primary contest.

Black politicians don’t need a majority black district to run in if they are in tune with the voters of a district. Right here in FL-19, with 76% white voters we are represented by Congressman Byron Donalds, a black man who is true MAGA, which matches with the red district he represents.

    The Gentle Grizzly in reply to Dave. | May 21, 2022 at 3:14 pm

    Try telling that to black Democrat congressmen.

    budmania in reply to Dave. | May 21, 2022 at 5:57 pm

    I wish I could give you 10 thumbs up!! Byron is awesome! And yes I live there….Naples.

    Milhouse in reply to Dave. | May 22, 2022 at 2:41 am

    Which means he ain’t black. Did they let him into the Congressional Black Caucus? Or did he not even bother applying?

      Gosport in reply to Milhouse. | May 22, 2022 at 5:30 am

      Byron and Burgess Owens are the current black Republicans in Congress. Neither were invited to join the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC). Byron has applied however.

      Ten black Republicans have been elected to Congress since the creation of the CBC. Only four were invited to become members, an obvious attempt at their subversion or outright prosthelization.

Does it bother anyone else that they are carving up D and R districts (i.e. choosing their voters)? I don’t think that’s how it is supposed to work….

    Whitewall in reply to slagothar. | May 21, 2022 at 12:13 pm

    Maybe the 1965 voting rights act in the South has something to do with this trend.

    CommoChief in reply to slagothar. | May 21, 2022 at 5:12 pm

    Incumbents are re-elected at a 99% rate; dem and rep alike. That’s the power of incumbency. The rare loses are almost always 1st term members in swing districts who haven’t quite solidified their hold because they have that little bit further to go to do so.

    Defeating an incumbent is nearly inconceivable which is what makes Crowley’s loss, a 10 term party leader, to AOC in a primary such a spectacle. Same with Dave Brat beating Eric Cantor the Majority leader at the time. The incumbent has to nearly try to lose by complacency.

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