“What that means is it’s just expected to be there, kind of like the flu during flu season. I think people are hoping this will go away, but it’s not going to go away.”
I hereby nominate the Iowa Department of Public Health officials to replace Dr. Antony Fauci and the rest of the bureaucrats currently directing the American response to the coronavirus.
Legal Insurrections may recall my recent piece, which described the first global coronavirus pandemic of 1889 (i.e., “The Russian Flu). In the article, I note that based on the similarities between how that virus behaved compared to the SARS-Cov-2 likely exported by China, we can look forward to successive waves of infection until the population built up enough immunity. The effects would be similar to common cold viruses.
An essential term in the discussion of diseases is “endemic.” In epidemiology, an infection is endemic in a population when that infection is constantly maintained at a baseline level in a geographic area without external inputs. Accepting that it will be present in the population means that health officials will focus on treatment options and medical approaches instead of striving for the elusive “zero COVID” level.
Iowa Department of Public Health has classified COVID-19 as endemic.
Marion County Public Health Director Kim Dorn says this means it’s likely to not simply disappear.
“It is endemic in the population. What that means is it’s just expected to be there, kind of like the flu during flu season. I think people are hoping this will go away, but it’s not going to go away. Endemic means to assume it to be in the population, and that we’re going to have to learn to live with this.”
Marion County Public Health is no longer keeping track of case counts, and does not handle them on a case-by-case basis. Instead, they are working to provide general guidance for positive cases.
The Huck Institute of the Life Sciences at Penn State and the Research Council of Norway offered an assessment that aligns with Iowa’s officials and my projections.
COVID-19 risks may shift from older adults to younger children as the SARS-CoV-2 virus becomes endemic, according to new modeling results.
Within the next few years, as the SARS-CoV-2 virus becomes endemic in the global population, COVID-19 may behave like other common-cold coronaviruses, affecting mostly young children who have not yet been vaccinated or exposed to the virus, according to new modeling results. Because COVID-19 severity is generally lower among children, the overall burden from this disease is expected to decline.
“Following infection by SARS-CoV-2, there has been a clear signature of increasingly severe outcomes and fatality with age,” said Ottar Bjornstad. “Yet, our modeling results suggest that the risk of infection will likely shift to younger children as the adult community becomes immune either through vaccination or exposure to the virus.”
Bjornstad explained that such shifts have been observed in other coronaviruses and influenza viruses as they have emerged and then become endemic.
Hopefully, politicians and bureaucrats will begin to grasp the science and abandon the “Zero COVID” Holy Grail. I recently noted that after New Zealand closed its borders after a small outbreak, which resulted in the death of its “Lord of the Rings” empire.
Now the country is under a “snap lockdown.”
New Zealand has announced a snap lockdown after a man tested positive for Covid, the first case in six months.
The case was detected in Auckland, which will be in lockdown for a week, while the rest of the country will be in lockdown for three days.
Authorities say they are working on the assumption that the new case was the Delta variant.
Just around 20% of its population has been fully vaccinated.
Coromandel, a coastal town where the infected person had visited, will be in lockdown for seven days too.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said the toughest “level 4” rules were required – closing schools, offices and all businesses with only essential services remaining operational.
Of course, as it is likely now endemic, the move has already failed…and they are delaying the inevitable once the restrictions end.
New Zealand reports 4 new COVID-19 cases, for a total of 5 in the current outbreak. The entire country of New Zealand went on lockdown after the first case in this outbreak was detected. The lockdown is scheduled to take 3 days.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) August 17, 2021
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