GOP has a Chance, Though Slim, to Win the House
It likely won’t happen, but the Democrats could have the smallest majority since FDR’s time.
How do you make the election crazier? The GOP grabs the House from the Democrats.
A party needs 218 to have a majority.
Oh, it’s a slim chance, but not impossible. I wrote earlier that the Democrats are already in meltdown mode due to the gains already made by the GOP.
416 House races appear decided
Democrats 212
Republicans 204 (+10)19 Seats remain, GOP lead in 10
To win 218 (and House majority), GOP would need to win all the districts they are leading in, plus:
CA-25
GA-07
PA-17
UT-04— Adrian Gray (@adrian_gray) November 5, 2020
The problem that GOP has, a number of the CD's they currently lead in (ie, NY-03, NJ-02) are likely to break away from them.
— Adrian Gray (@adrian_gray) November 5, 2020
Any path to GOP House is also not at all likely. It looks like they will end up with 209-214 seats.
(The latter resulting in smallest House majority since New Deal).— Adrian Gray (@adrian_gray) November 5, 2020
The Democrats only flipped two seats, both located in North Carolina. The party did not flip or gain seats in the races they targeted.
In fact, the GOP took two seats away in southern Florida.
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Comments
Well, it’ll be an interesting sidelight, but keeping a Republican caucus together on anything is like herding cats. The Dems are much more ruthless in suppressing dissent.
Fraud Fraud Fraud!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pk7yqlTMvp8
Should have been a reply to txvet2 with the comment: “Herding Cats”
Let’s say they rig this election. Trump comes back in 2024 after a backlash against the liberal crazy. Remember the left doesn’t have the Senate.
Consider this possibility. Trump ain’t going away. He starts his new media organization, a pro-America organization. He’s given indications to this idea over the years. It will be immediately successful. Those who voted for Trump are so anxious to support something that’ll punch back at the leftist media which really are an enemy of the people. And when the 2023 election season begins, Trump’ll be tanned, rested, and ready.
Further boosting 2024 will be the 2022 elections. Biden will be a disaster; so too Heels Up. McConnell can see to that on confirmations and not even considering stupid Democrat bills sent over from the House. Biden will try EOs but they only go so far. 2022 could see the Rs take back the House.
What if Breyer decides to hang it up so that Biden has a chance to nominate a younger lefty to the Court. Getting him/her to the Court will be one heavy lift with McConnell in charge. Even if Breyer’s seat remains empty, USSC votes will be more likely 5-3 (3 = Roberts, Kagan, the Wide Latina).
It’s likely that DJT will be the organizer of the opposition but consider his age. It’s more likely Don Jr. would be on a Republican ticket (if they’re even worth fooling with) with Don Sr. doing consultation work. As you say, he ain’t going away.
Don Jr. isn’t any more afraid of brawling as Senior is.
.
Good Bye Pa. 17
There is plenty of time for democrat ballot harvesting in California.
So with GOP in control of both Houses, they GOP could be in a position to impeach the Manchurian Trojan Horse tag team?
Do you think the GOP will be as effective obstructing a Biden/Harris administration as the Dems have been with Trump, even if they control both chambers of Congress?
I don’t. I would expect them to be as “bipartisan” and conciliatory as they have been in the past.
(But I’m still clinging to the hope that we won’t get the chance to find out.)
I DO believe McCarthy and Nunes are willing and capable of tying up the Biden administration with at least the constant threat of impeachment, especially if those Hunter tapes and documents linking Obama and “the big guy” to the shakedown racket.
It’s one thing if Trump just disappears but he could decide to be a serious, looming threat to not only the Dems but also the RINOs. Trump is THE reason the GOP retakes the House either this year or 2022 and anyone running that year in the Senate will need his endorsement. They will be expected to earn it or Trump just may endorse their primary opponent.
It’s a new world and Trump is THE BIG FACTOR moving forward even if he loses this election. There will be no ignoring him.
If the republicans have a narrow majority, some republican will always switch parties and flip it.
Republicans can never again be given the House. They can come close, but after Boehner the Bawler and Ryan the Rat, nevermore in the majority.
Most of that party has resigned or been purged. Their replacements owe Trump. We have to do that with the Senate. A great many of them are antediluvian (superannuated?) and will disappear soon enough.
If Biden holds the White House, we really need another party holding the House.
Maybe not as out of reach as we think. I just looked at an analysis of late Michigan vote dump. It seems that within the universe of these late dump ballots that there are around 70,000 voters who only voted Biden. No down ballot races voted. Very strange. Improbably so.
Since Michigan has a very high profile, very competitive Senate race: Peters v James, that seems especially odd.
Maybe if we think about it from a ballot stuffing standpoint with time constraints and personnel constraints then it begins to make sense.
If that course was followed in other states to gin up last minute notes during a vote counting time out we should be able to see a trend. Why else stop counting unless you need to know how many ballots need to be produced to overtake the lead?
If the Democrats win the election, how long before Biden steps aside/fall ill/resigns?