A poll released Monday by Saint Anselm College’s New Hampshire Institute of Politics could spell trouble for some big-name candidates. But it’s time. The field is crowded and should start consolidating.
To begin with, Marianne Williamson saw a jump of 1.5 points, putting her at 2% and is polling ahead of Booker, Gillibrand, Gabbard, Inslee, and O’Rourke (who polled at 0%). As Mike wrote this weekend, someone needs to tell O’Rourke he’s done.
And then there’s Bernie. He dropped a whole 6 points, putting him in the middle rung with 10%. As we’ve blogged before — Bernie was a novelty in a tiny field. In 2020, he’s just a (very) loud old man yelling at clouds compared to the younger, equally as progressive crowd he’s battling.
For perspective, Andrew Yang is polling at 5%.
Mayor Pete is holding steady at 12%.
Biden maintains a handy lead, but dropped two points since April, putting him at 21%.
Harris jumped a whopping 11 points (polling at 18%) followed by Warren who jumped 8 points (polling at 17%).
NHIOP Executive Director Neil Levesque summarized the results, saying, “In the Saint Anselm College Survey Center’s first look at the New Hampshire Democratic Primary field since the first series of debates, Joe Biden continues to hold a lead in the ballot test, with 21% of primary voters expressing a preference for the former Vice President. However, his lead has narrowed considerably since our last poll in April, as Senators Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren have seen a significant post-debate bump, claiming 18% and 17% voter support respectively. Mayor Pete Buttigieg has maintained his support at 12%, while Senator Bernie Sanders has fallen below 10%. Senator Cory Booker and former Congressman Beto O’Rourke have both seen their support virtually disappear.“The sources of Biden’s support suggest that his narrow advantage may be precarious, as it comes from older and more conservative voters, while Warren leads among the more energized ‘very liberal’ voters. Indeed, among voters that are ‘extremely interested’ in the upcoming presidential election, Harris and Warren are tied at 20% support, leading Biden at 19%. Among ‘extremely’ and ‘very interested’ voters, Harris leads with 19% support to Biden’s 18% and Warren’s 17%.“It is still very early in the process,” Levesque concluded. “However, there are some trends emerging as voters sort through a couple dozen options. Joe Biden is a familiar, well-liked and well-respected figure in the Democratic Party, but between them, Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren demonstrate a significant appetite among younger, more liberal voters for a progressive standard-bearer to send against President Donald Trump. It is also becoming increasingly difficult for lower-tier candidates to get the attention they need to gather support, as even formerly solid contenders have seen their support dissipate and gather behind the emerging top tier of candidates.”
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