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Midterms Open Thread: Will We Have a Blue Wave?

Midterms Open Thread: Will We Have a Blue Wave?

Live updating through the day on races across America.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YNy9ZEIz1Jk

Today’s the day! Election Day! Have you voted yet?

Us at Legal Insurrection will keep this thread open all day to provide updates, analysis, and pictures of all the races across the nation.

Will the Republicans keep control of the House? Will the Republicans gain more seats in the Senate? As we learned in 2016, anything can happen.

*The newest updates will be at the top…

Nevada Voter Reminds Us Why Trump Won

If you haven’t read Salena Zito’s book The Great Revolt you need to because she traveled across the country in areas the MSM ignored to interview ordinary Americans on why they voted for Trump.

The Wall Street Journal interviewed a few voters in Nevada, but one caught my eye that reminded me of why Trump won:

Dinzale Coleman, 25, a security guard, said he voted for a number of Republicans including Mr. [Republican incumbent Sen. Dean] Heller because he supports the president’s agenda. He called the senator’s opponent, Ms. [Jacky] Rosen, “too much like” former Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. “Hillary will do whatever it takes to be on top.“ An African-American, Mr. Coleman said he doesn’t like a lot of what Mr. Trump says in terms of tweets and divisive rhetoric.

“But when it comes to his actions, I support that,“ Mr. Coleman said, citing the president’s stance on China.

In other words, yes, people who voted for Trump have heard what he has said, but actions speak louder than words.

Could This App Win the House for the Democrats?

The app VoteWithMe, developed by former aides to Obama, “blew my mind,” said one Republican advisor. From The Washington Examiner:

The phone application, available for free in Apple’s app store, was developed to “flip the House,” according to its website.

Those who download it turn over their contacts who are then linked with voting records, key races in their districts and contact information.

What users then see is the voting history of their contacts, their polling places, and if there is a key election in their district. It also shows their party registration, which one user said can be surprising.

What’s more, individual or all contacts can be sent a message to get out to vote today, a powerful influencer and much more than a visit by a party official to a residence, according to one of the concerned Republicans.

The app’s operators tweeted this week that 100,000 people have downloaded it, many in the past week.

“This is the most amazing app. You can send your contacts a get out the vote message, you can even tailor the message to them based on all the information the app shows you,” said the former party official.

Some reports on the app noted that potential users have expressed concerns about turning over the contact list. But the site’s officials note that most of the voting information about the contacts is already public, though hard to find.

Trump Regrets His Tone in His First Two Years as President

Trump told the Sinclair Broadcast Group that he regrets the tone he has used these past two years:

Trump said if there was anything he would try and redo it would be to soften his tone.

“I would like to have a much softer tone. I feel to a certain extent I have no choice, but maybe I do,” Trump said. He attributed his tone during his first two years in office to wanting to get things done on his agenda, adding that he could have been softer in his delivery.

The president also stated that he had doubts about using a softer tone because he might have been “swamped” by his opposition.

He said after the midterm election his tone is something he will be working on and he hopes there will be more harmony between Republicans and Democrats.

Maryland’s Republican Governor Receives Support From Democrats

Maybe Maryland will keep Republican Governor Larry Hogan around for a second term even though “registered Democrats outnumber Republicans 2 to 1” in the state. The Wall Street Journal spoke to registered Democrat Catherine Patterson, who voted for Hogan for governor, but voted for the Democrat incumbents in the House and Senate:

Ms. Patterson said she likes Mr. Jealous’s progressive ideas, such as single-payer healthcare and tuition-free college. “These are things I personally believe in, but I don’t know how we’re going to pay for them,” she said.

As for the incumbent, she said: “Larry Hogan has been a good governor.” She applauded Mr. Hogan for keeping some distance from President Trump. She also praised him for making good on promises to lower taxes, and for his efforts to restore calm to Baltimore after riots erupted in 2015 following the death of Freddie Gray from injuries the 25-year-old sustained in police custody.

Still, Ms. Patterson said, she wrestled with her decision and wasn’t sure which gubernatorial candidate would get her vote until Tuesday morning.

Hogan leads his Democrat opponent by 20 points and could become the first Maryland Republican governor to serve a second term since the 1950s.

Early Voting Broke Records

36 million voters turned in their ballots before today, which could mean a larger than normal overall turnout for a midterm election. University of Florida professor Michael McDonald spoke to Politico about the data he reviewed:

And that trend is expected to extend into Election Day. Early voters in three states — Texas, Nevada and Arizona — have already surpassed total turnout in the last midterm election, McDonald’s data shows, and more states will blow past their normal non-presidential turnout with just a handful more votes on Election Day. The high voting rates have transformed expectations about who will show up in the midterms — and they could inspire results that diverge from any pre-election polls that did not reckon with this year’s unusually high enthusiasm.

“This is not a normal election,” McDonald told POLITICO. “The best guess is that we’re looking at some sort of hybrid midterm/presidential election” in terms of turnout.

McDonald predicted that by the time all of the early votes are compiled, every state could surpass its 2014 totals. Tom Bonier, CEO of the Democratic data firm TargetSmart, projected that early voting could surpass 40 million when all the ballots are received.

McDonald and those at Edison Media Research believe “105.5 million people will vote this year,” which is about 45% of those eligible to vote. Only 82 million voted in the 2014 midterms.

Which Races to Watch

The Wall Street Journal provided a detailed list, but here are mine:

  • Missouri Senate race between Josh Hawley and Democrat incumbent Claire McCaskill
  • Indiana Senate race between Mike Braun and Democrat incumbent Joe Donnelly
  • North Dakota Senate race between Kevin Cramer and Democrat incumbent Heidi Heitkamp
  • Montana Senate race between Matt Rosendale and Democrat incumbent Jon Tester
  • Georgia’s governor’s race. Democrat Stacey Abrams could become America’s first black female governor.
  • California in general because in the last few weeks, experts lost hope for a blue crash in the House races and think that the Democrats will only flip two seats.

[Featured image via YouTube]

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Comments

I’m just gonna leave this chestnut right here as my prediction.

TRUMPUSA.png

http://statespoll.com/

No blue wave. MSM reports their fantasies, lies, and prophecies as fact. The “fact” of the blue wave has turned into admission that nobody knows the outcome.

There were many stealth Trump/GOP supporters in 2016, when it was relatively civil in our country. Pick a multiplier–2X, 10X, 100X, a million times–the violence and threat of violence from the left has increased in two short years. Who wants to invite that? Voting analyses aside, I think that there is a large undercurrent of Trump/GOP/Hooray-For-The-Economy voters who will let their voices be heard, since it is largely silenced elsewhere.

The color scheme of the “I Voted! Did You?” sticker seems meaningful.

Republicans get out and vote.

Democrats hector everyone else to do so.

I pray for all that is good for your country that Democrats dont get back in to power!

Everything you have seen leading up to today will have just been the mere warm up act compared to what will be coming (but this time with the sanction of the State!!).

Just got back…no lines. That’s probably a good sign here in the (dark) blue state of RI. GO FLANDERS GO!! We’re tired of the embarrassment of Farticus. (Whitehouse)

    notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital in reply to RITaxpayer. | November 6, 2018 at 11:02 am

    Did you have rain or rain predicted for today?

    I discovered this morning that even the Globalist (network) owned, online weather services are LYING about the weather!!!

    I am serious (voter suppression attempt for certain.)

    Some Weather Dot Con or so web site said it was 41 degrees with winds of 10 to 15 miles per hour. I dressed according and nearly burned up on my short 5 minute walk to vote.

      notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital in reply to notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital. | November 6, 2018 at 11:10 am

      FYI

      Diamond and Silk®
      ‏Verified account @DiamondandSilk
      Nov 4

      Just so y’all know; One of the reasons why the POTUS is polling at 40% among African Americans is because most are against Illegal Aliens crossing the borders illegally, taking jobs away from Americans and driving down wages!

        The Diamond and Silk comment is telling–I think the MSM (and probably poll takers) have completely ignored Trump’s popularity in the Black community re: illegal immigration because it does not compute for them–they cannot envisage such a situation, so they ignore it/pretend it’s not real.

      Accuweather app on my android phone yesterday sent a push notification that election day weather would be “unsettled”. Never seen that before. On the north olympic peninsula it’s calm with broken clouds and 51F. Heading out to weed my garden – which I hope proves metaphoric for cleaning out some of the weeDs in the senate and house.

Living in an area that voted 3:1 for Trump, we have a smooth voting system with very few hiccups, and the line this morning a half-hour after the polls opened was still out the door. Feeling good.

    notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital in reply to georgfelis. | November 6, 2018 at 11:05 am

    Glad to hear that Georgfelis.

    My voting place was in violation of the law having a Fox News TV broadcast on, in which politics were being discussed and political ads were running.

    The “Vote Here” signs were also hidden.

    To top it off, the person handling out the paper ballot did all they could to crease and mutilate the paper ballot when tearing it off the pad.

The D-bag rep (Bobby Scott) in our area is running unchallenged unfortunately. I wrote in Donald Trump. I know he’s busy, but would he be willing to pull double duty?

    Crapgame13 in reply to healthguyfsu. | November 6, 2018 at 4:13 pm

    I grew up in VA-1. I remember Bobby Scott couldn’t beat Herb Bateman so they created a district for him the first chance they got.

notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital | November 6, 2018 at 10:57 am

RE: “Will We Have a Blue Wave?”

Sure, sure, as we flush the Tidy Bowl Blue down the toilet today!

Not only did I already vote, but I actually enjoyed it!

Without a hurricane on the horizon, without fulfillment of the prophecy of Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming, and swimming in a a sea of black, brown, yellow, orange, white, red, … babies, the Magic Eight Ball predicts a blue wave is plausible, but unlikely.

I still remember two years ago. My son and I were having the Taco Tuesday special dinner at New Seasons (an uber-diverse grocery store that makes Whole Paycheck look like Piggly Wiggly). It was unseasonably warm, so we were eating on the rooftop deck, and as we came in through the upstairs winebar (so alky housewives can get a buzz while grocery shopping?) I saw on the TV that Ohio was red, I think PA was red at that point, and they were calling FL for Trump. Up till then I was 50/50, but I looked at my son and said, “He did it, the witch is dead.” I also told him to be extra nice to Berkeley grad Mom that night, because she was not going to be in a good mood.

Huffington is touting wins for Gillum, Abrams and Beto on their front page. Hmmmm… those are races I’ll have to eat crow on if they are even close, because I was operating on the assumption that those were nothing more than clever attempts to rake in the Bernie Bro sucker dollars and to push the meme that their far left ideas are mainstream enough to win.

Don’t know much about Abrams, but that they are putting Gillum and Beto front and center today means they think they won’t be blow outs. I’m surprised by that.

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/democrats-expecting-house-gubernatorial-gains_us_5be0e260e4b04367a87fb196

    elle in reply to elle. | November 6, 2018 at 12:21 pm

    to clarify, I should have said that Huffington does not think that the Republicans will crush (blowout) those FAR LEFT Democrat candidates and appears to believe that those three may have a decent chance at the polls. I am surprised by that.

      Petrushka in reply to elle. | November 6, 2018 at 2:01 pm

      Florida is looking redish, based on returned ballots and early voting, by party. A tad better, so far, than 2016.

      But it’s a long day.

        Antifundamentalist in reply to Petrushka. | November 6, 2018 at 3:11 pm

        The thing to remember about Florida is that a lot of people register as Democrats but have never voted blue in their lives, especially in the rural areas.

    elle in reply to elle. | November 6, 2018 at 12:42 pm

    But maybe I am just falling for the hype as Politico has this headline: Trump’s GOP Braces for Midwest Massacre

    https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/11/06/2018-election-trump-gop-midwest-222219

    haha. dream on.

    Virginia42 in reply to elle. | November 6, 2018 at 3:20 pm

    Huffington is one of the most dishonest outlets out there–and yet Yahoo constantly runs their agitprop as legit news. It’s parody.

    The Packetman in reply to elle. | November 6, 2018 at 3:59 pm

    GA resident here … most of what I’ve seen about Abrams is from my Facebook feed and that from one of the state-level grass roots 2A groups and they have been hammering her. I never even listened to her until her interview with Jake Tapper and I never knew someone that stupid could be a candidate for a governorship.

    And my wife, who is a Dem, didn’t believe me when I told her that the polls in the state showed the race as close.

    There are also pictures floating around Facebook that shows 4 black men (3 of whom are armed with long guns) walking around whatever town they’re in waving Abrams signs. I’m not sure it’s not a false flag op to be honest!

Wow. Huge turnout this morning in our laid-back Southern California suburban community.

I know what the polls are saying, but with all the Republican enthusiasm, I just don’t see a blue house let alone a wave.

DieJustAsHappy | November 6, 2018 at 12:31 pm

Trump wishes he would had a “softer tone” these past two years. Do not regret your tone, Mr. President. It was needed. This ought to be your only regret. That such a demonstrative one was needed to awaken the electorate.

I vote in a very small, rural area. Today, I was #65. The only reason I’m raising this is this about my number in 2016, yet today I voted several hours earlier!

Turnout early in the day in my (conservative) Fort Myers area precinct seemed high and energetic. Vanishingly few signs for Nelson or Gillum. Good initial auspices for Scott and DeSantis.

Minor data point from a Northern Michigan deplorable. Total voters in my precinct in 2014 mid-terms – 458. I got ballot #323 at 10:15 am this morning. Seems to be a sign of pretty heavy turnout in a county that went 70%+ for Trump.

I’m happy with his remarks about his tone. It shows growth. Its the insecure (cough) who always need to front loudest. And to be fair, EVERYONE was out to get Trump, from all sides and angles except our own. So his insecurity was justified.

But by recognizing that his trash talk sometimes hurts more than helps (and that he can afford to dial it back) Trump is revealing that he has gotten comfortable with his power and authority. He’s not an outsider or an underdog who cheated fate, he is the leader of the most powerful nation on earth.

Its curious. I love what he has done for us, but I didn’t really regard him as I did Reagan until recently. Trump may have had a bit of imposter syndrome himself. And who can blame him? The last 2 years have been a miracle, as if someone had sent a Terminator back to 2016 to repair a corrupted timeline.

President Trump is the real thing.
Chuck Liddel doesn’t talk trash.
And Marines don’t fire warning shots.

    MarkJ in reply to Fen. | November 6, 2018 at 1:22 pm

    “And Marines don’t fire warning shots.”

    Dying Jihadi: “I thought you guys fired warning shots. Why did you just shoot me?

    Marine: “Buddy, that WAS my warning shot.”

    (Self-Disclosure: Sergeant, USMC, 0341 (60 & 81mm mortars), 1975-1980)

      Fen in reply to MarkJ. | November 6, 2018 at 1:53 pm

      Oh God. Mortars? They assigned us alphabetically out of SOI. Honestly, it kicked my ass and dispelled any silly notion I could hack Force Recon. Like the high school quarterback who believes he can start in the NFL. Then, first college game he gets Hulk thrashed like a Loki Ragdoll. “Hey Dad, I’ve found a sudden appreciation for the Golf Team”

      Anyways, I’m rambling. My name was at the end of the alphabet and mortars was sneaking up on me. I cant lie – when they gave me 0313 instead (LAV-25s. WHEELS!) I literally jumped up and down on the grinder like a little girl. 3 times I think.

      So, much respect for carrying the burden of that millstone, and for employing them so effectively (we did much of the call for fire)

      Semper Fidelis

      daniel_ream in reply to MarkJ. | November 6, 2018 at 2:18 pm

      Alternate answer: “Who said I was warning you?

      Firewatch in reply to MarkJ. | November 6, 2018 at 4:09 pm

      Was that before the new “light” baseplate?
      0311 66/69
      BTW Happy early Birthday!

How many people purchased firearms during the Obama occupation? Do you think they might be a wee bit more conservative than the socialist democrats?

Hillary’s “vast right wing conspiracy” is alive and well and we will rebuke the liberal agenda for their many malfeasances.

Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation brought home the truth about liberals at just the opportune moment to stoke the people who keep America alive.

notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital | November 6, 2018 at 2:49 pm

FYI

West Virginia Senate Race Moved from “Leans Dem” to “Toss-Up”
Come On, West Virginia…
—Ace of Spades

caseoftheblues | November 6, 2018 at 2:51 pm

I am shocked frankly that any LI reader is turning to politico and Huffpo for information…taking it seriously and reposting…

    notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital in reply to caseoftheblues. | November 6, 2018 at 2:54 pm

    Thank you for saying that.

    I’ve known for about a decade that Politico is nothing but a Democrat Party operation.

    And as for “Puff Ho”…….

    I guess you are talking to me. Yes, Politico, Huffpo and the Hill are always reliable talking points for the Democrat party. That’s why I go there. It’s very insightful to see what they highlight and what they run away from. My point was that I found it interesting that they are highlighting Beto and Gillum because I thought they would both get their behinds kicked from here to Neptune. My expectation was that Huffpo would quietly turn the focus to races that they expect to win. But they didn’t.

    Huffpo mission statement is: To find stories of racism, no matter how weak, and mix them in with cute Labrador puppies and celebrity gossip in order to make white women identifying as Democrats feel like they are smarter and better than Deplorable Others. …or something along those lines 🙂

      Fen in reply to elle. | November 6, 2018 at 4:23 pm

      Good points. I still read Dem Underground for the same reason. Although the quality has nosedived, commenters of the type last to leave a dying cult. Apparently they had some kind of culling a while back.

        elle in reply to Fen. | November 6, 2018 at 4:47 pm

        you have a stronger stomach than I do. I only go in there before Thanksgiving so that I will be forewarned as to new trends in racism or other incorrect thought.

        Never can be sure when it is both impolite AND racist to complain about poop on city streets, releasing rapists and murderers, not liking men with beards hanging out in girls bathrooms, etc. I would hate to accidentally express shock that a Dem candidate is the grandson of a proud participant in the Munich murders. I’m sure you can imagine the dismay such an indiscretion might cause.

As expected, the huge early voting turnout is resulting in a very light turnout today. They shouldn’t have much trouble counting the vote, except in those blue states where they’ll still have to figure out how many bogus votes they have to slip in to steal the close races.

    elle in reply to txvet2. | November 6, 2018 at 4:01 pm

    Not true where I live. Most turnout I’ve seen since I moved here over a decade ago. I actually had to wait for a voting booth to clear out for the first time ever. It’s a safe red district. Woman behind counter said it’s been like that all day. Lots of early voting as well.

    bobtuba in reply to txvet2. | November 6, 2018 at 4:02 pm

    I’m looking at you, Broward County…

I slept at a Holiday Inn last night and am working on a theory that may provide some insight into the motives of NeverTrumpers like Kristol.

Came across a good article/video (Prager maybe) about how social media bullies and SJWs get a dopamine high from “likes”, retweets, etc which helps prop up their self-esteem. But it becomes addictive and needs to be cycled repeatedly to catch that rush of Righteousness.

Perhaps in a similar way, the NeverTrumpers & Cucks are chasing that dopamine high by “taking the high road” and “losing gracefully” and being “good sports”. I wouldn’t be surprised if they also got a rush from lecturing us Deplorables about our tone and civility.

(Looks over shoulder) Is Millhouse in the building? I’m sure he’s going to sing me, and rightfully so: the way we win is as important as winning.

But an emphasis carried to extreme, and for selfish reasons (cheap virtue highs while your people are beaten and shot) is as unhealthy as it is fake.

When we go to war “we measure ths success of a mission by two things: was it successful and how few civilians did we hurt” – West Wing

https://youtu.be/vN8U-TSbfwE

Note that doesn’t necessarily mean “no civilians were hurt”. And we’ve that mistake in practice, where many good men are lost because we were paralyzed by the prospect of risking civilians.

We’ve even enshrined the lessons from such mistakes in the aphorism “the Constitution is not a suicide pact”.

Adhering to a Principle solely to satisfy the appetites of one’s own ego is a sin against virtue.

    Fen in reply to Fen. | November 6, 2018 at 3:18 pm

    Ding me not sing me. LOL.

    You going to sing me a lullaby, Mllhouse 😉

    Ragspierre in reply to Fen. | November 6, 2018 at 4:35 pm

    It was Glenn Beck with Ben Shapiro, and you’re swinging from that Holiday Inn balcony like a coke monkey on a Las Vegas chandelier.

Nevada votes republican. That’s a wave we can all ride like a surf-boss.

The ancient persons (from the League of Women Voters, I imagine) running the tables where I vote were carrying on about distributing “I Voted” stickers or buttons or something (I didn’t look . . . smacks too much of idolatry for me).

Never seen that before. Kinda weird, actually. Maybe it’s the start of a line of “collectibles” to attract juveniles. Next will probably be action figures.

Huge backfires with antifa, which was the genesis of the Jobs vs. mobs meme, and the caravan. The Judge Kavenaugh confirmation was also a huge debacle for the democrats. So many unforced errors. I believe it all stems from TDS. Like Rush said, they haven’t gotten over losing in 2016. They are living in the denial and anger stages, with no end in sight.

So, what are the results?

I’m not much for movie analogies. At the risk of being seen as racist. But the important thing is that in extremist, they all sang.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nQrE8vOM0ss

This takes a sense of humor.

extremosm

I was wondering about this.

http://rickrescorla.com/

We were Soldiers. On 9/11 this Welshman made this American proud. I don’t think I can repay.

notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital | November 6, 2018 at 5:09 pm

If you need some cheering up, just visit the #WalkAway Facebook page, where you will find gems such as this.

“Mindy Linton-Caswell
Mindy Linton-Caswell Twas the night before elections,
And all thru’ the town,
Tempers were flaring
Emotions ran up and down.

I, in my bathrobe
With a cat in my lap,
Had shut off the TV,
tired of political crap.

When all of a sudden,
There arose such a noise,
I peered out my window,
Saw Pelosi and her boys

They had come for my wallet,
They wanted my pay
To hand out to others
Who had not worked a day!

They snatched up my money,
And quick as a wink,
Jumped back on their bandwagon
As I gagged from the stink.

She then rallied her henchmen
Who were pulling her cart.
I could tell they were out
To tear my Country apart!

On Fannie, on Freddie,
On Schumer and Ayers!
On Acorn, on Waters
She screamed at the pairs!

They took off for her cause,
And as they flew out of sight,
I heard her laugh at a nation
Who wouldn’t stand up and fight!
So I leave you to think
On this one final note…

IF YOU DON’T WANT SOCIALISM,
GET OUT AND VOTE !!!!
GOD BLESS AMERICA,
OUR ONLY HOPE…..”

Normally, I like naked women.

https://legalinsurrection.com/2018/11/strip-to-win-dem-women-get-naked-to-get-out-the-vote/

Do Democrats have to ruin literally everything?

sigh…I am ocd clicking from site to site. I can’t wait for this one to be over. As of yesterday, I felt all the signs were GREAT going into this.

Today I am falling for the demoralization campaign. Are there really enough voters to give a candidate like Gillum a showing that is not sooo embarrassing that even Huffpo feels the need to avert their gaze from him by now?? And Teeny Bopper Beto, how is it that he can get over 20% of the vote in Texas? Ugh….

I just want adults to be back in charge, instead of thugs, thieves and morons. I hope that tonight I’m not like the Dems in 2016, watching the returns only to clutch at my pearls and utter sad sounds as I watch the House slip away.

I need to get out.

“”And Teeny Bopper Beto, how is it that he can get over 20% of the vote in Texas? Ugh…””

Houston, Austin, South San Antonio and the Valley.

I don’t mind being able to vote early, but I do object to releasing results of how many ballots have been received. In Oregon, we have a rule wherein tax measures need to receive a minimum percentage of total registered voters participating. This was to keep them off of minor elections wherein stacked votes could get stuff through without scrutiny. So a tax measure can be defeated two ways, either by getting more “no” votes, or by not getting sufficient votes for it to be legitimate even if yes votes outnumber no by 4:1. But lets say that results are released indicating that 50% of the ballots have been returned (even though in reality it might have only been 40%). Now all of the “no” voters have to vote for it, which means that it might now pass with yes exceeding no and the 50% minimum has now been met. To me that is a sleezy version of official early reporting which should be banned, but do they listen to me?

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