Midterms Open Thread: Will We Have a Blue Wave?

Midterms Open Thread: Will We Have a Blue Wave?

Today’s the day! Election Day! Have you voted yet?

Us at Legal Insurrection will keep this thread open all day to provide updates, analysis, and pictures of all the races across the nation.

Will the Republicans keep control of the House? Will the Republicans gain more seats in the Senate? As we learned in 2016, anything can happen.

*The newest updates will be at the top…

Nevada Voter Reminds Us Why Trump Won

If you haven’t read Salena Zito’s book The Great Revolt you need to because she traveled across the country in areas the MSM ignored to interview ordinary Americans on why they voted for Trump.

The Wall Street Journal interviewed a few voters in Nevada, but one caught my eye that reminded me of why Trump won:

Dinzale Coleman, 25, a security guard, said he voted for a number of Republicans including Mr. [Republican incumbent Sen. Dean] Heller because he supports the president’s agenda. He called the senator’s opponent, Ms. [Jacky] Rosen, “too much like” former Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. “Hillary will do whatever it takes to be on top.“ An African-American, Mr. Coleman said he doesn’t like a lot of what Mr. Trump says in terms of tweets and divisive rhetoric.

“But when it comes to his actions, I support that,“ Mr. Coleman said, citing the president’s stance on China.

In other words, yes, people who voted for Trump have heard what he has said, but actions speak louder than words.

In Las Vegas, Dinzale Coleman said he voted for Republicans including Sen. Dean Heller because he supports President Trump’s agenda. Coleman said he doesn’t like a lot of what the president says. “But when it comes to his actions, I support that.” #Nevada #MidtermElection2018 pic.twitter.com/61xQ9ml9RF

— jim carlton (@jimcarltonsf) November 6, 2018

Could This App Win the House for the Democrats?

The app VoteWithMe, developed by former aides to Obama, “blew my mind,” said one Republican advisor. From The Washington Examiner:

The phone application, available for free in Apple’s app store, was developed to “flip the House,” according to its website.

Those who download it turn over their contacts who are then linked with voting records, key races in their districts and contact information.

What users then see is the voting history of their contacts, their polling places, and if there is a key election in their district. It also shows their party registration, which one user said can be surprising.

What’s more, individual or all contacts can be sent a message to get out to vote today, a powerful influencer and much more than a visit by a party official to a residence, according to one of the concerned Republicans.

The app’s operators tweeted this week that 100,000 people have downloaded it, many in the past week.

“This is the most amazing app. You can send your contacts a get out the vote message, you can even tailor the message to them based on all the information the app shows you,” said the former party official.

Some reports on the app noted that potential users have expressed concerns about turning over the contact list. But the site’s officials note that most of the voting information about the contacts is already public, though hard to find.

Trump Regrets His Tone in His First Two Years as President

Trump told the Sinclair Broadcast Group that he regrets the tone he has used these past two years:

Trump said if there was anything he would try and redo it would be to soften his tone.

“I would like to have a much softer tone. I feel to a certain extent I have no choice, but maybe I do,” Trump said. He attributed his tone during his first two years in office to wanting to get things done on his agenda, adding that he could have been softer in his delivery.

The president also stated that he had doubts about using a softer tone because he might have been “swamped” by his opposition.

He said after the midterm election his tone is something he will be working on and he hopes there will be more harmony between Republicans and Democrats.

Maryland’s Republican Governor Receives Support From Democrats

Maybe Maryland will keep Republican Governor Larry Hogan around for a second term even though “registered Democrats outnumber Republicans 2 to 1” in the state. The Wall Street Journal spoke to registered Democrat Catherine Patterson, who voted for Hogan for governor, but voted for the Democrat incumbents in the House and Senate:

Ms. Patterson said she likes Mr. Jealous’s progressive ideas, such as single-payer healthcare and tuition-free college. “These are things I personally believe in, but I don’t know how we’re going to pay for them,” she said.

As for the incumbent, she said: “Larry Hogan has been a good governor.” She applauded Mr. Hogan for keeping some distance from President Trump. She also praised him for making good on promises to lower taxes, and for his efforts to restore calm to Baltimore after riots erupted in 2015 following the death of Freddie Gray from injuries the 25-year-old sustained in police custody.

Still, Ms. Patterson said, she wrestled with her decision and wasn’t sure which gubernatorial candidate would get her vote until Tuesday morning.

Hogan leads his Democrat opponent by 20 points and could become the first Maryland Republican governor to serve a second term since the 1950s.

Early Voting Broke Records

36 million voters turned in their ballots before today, which could mean a larger than normal overall turnout for a midterm election. University of Florida professor Michael McDonald spoke to Politico about the data he reviewed:

And that trend is expected to extend into Election Day. Early voters in three states — Texas, Nevada and Arizona — have already surpassed total turnout in the last midterm election, McDonald’s data shows, and more states will blow past their normal non-presidential turnout with just a handful more votes on Election Day. The high voting rates have transformed expectations about who will show up in the midterms — and they could inspire results that diverge from any pre-election polls that did not reckon with this year’s unusually high enthusiasm.

“This is not a normal election,” McDonald told POLITICO. “The best guess is that we’re looking at some sort of hybrid midterm/presidential election” in terms of turnout.

McDonald predicted that by the time all of the early votes are compiled, every state could surpass its 2014 totals. Tom Bonier, CEO of the Democratic data firm TargetSmart, projected that early voting could surpass 40 million when all the ballots are received.

McDonald and those at Edison Media Research believe “105.5 million people will vote this year,” which is about 45% of those eligible to vote. Only 82 million voted in the 2014 midterms.

Which Races to Watch

The Wall Street Journal provided a detailed list, but here are mine:

• Missouri Senate race between Josh Hawley and Democrat incumbent Claire McCaskill
• Indiana Senate race between Mike Braun and Democrat incumbent Joe Donnelly
• North Dakota Senate race between Kevin Cramer and Democrat incumbent Heidi Heitkamp
• Montana Senate race between Matt Rosendale and Democrat incumbent Jon Tester
• Georgia’s governor’s race. Democrat Stacey Abrams could become America’s first black female governor.
• California in general because in the last few weeks, experts lost hope for a blue crash in the House races and think that the Democrats will only flip two seats.

[Featured image via YouTube]

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