New Poll has Cruz Up 5 Points With Undecided Voters Moving Towards Him
Did Kavanaugh save Cruz?
A new poll from Emerson College has incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz up five points on his Democrat opponent Robert O’Rourke.
The most interesting part of this poll? It looks like more of the undecided voters have started to move towards Cruz.
Professor Spencer Kimball of Emerson Polling said this on a podcast (emphasis mine):
“So that new poll in Texas, just coming out right now, has Ted Cruz at 47% and Beto O’Rourke at 42%. And if you’ll remember the last time we did this poll in August, Trump had his national rating underwater at negative 15. Cruz was tied with O’Rourke 39-38. This time, in that national poll we referenced earlier today, Trump’s numbers are now down by 7. So he’s made about an 8 point improvement.
We’re also seeing Cruz improving, really with those undecided voters. Last time 21% of the electorate was undecided. Well, as the election obviously comes closer people start making up their minds. Also, in our voter models, now that we are in that post-Columbus Day period where we’re in the unofficial home stretch of the election, we use a likely-voter model. So no more just registered voters, now you have to say that you are a likely voter. And that tightens up the undecideds as well.
But I also think that we’re seeing those undecideds moving towards Cruz because of what happened with Justice Kavanaugh. Voters in Texas favored the Kavanaugh nomination 46% to 41%. There is that 5 point magnitude, that difference between Kavanaugh having an in or not. And that’s the same difference we’re seeing between Cruz and O’Rourke, 47-42, that five point difference. So that’s something we have to ask: Is Cruz now peaking? Like what we said in August, was O’Rourke peaking, back in August? And obviously you want to peak on election day, get the most buzz at that point.
It looks like Cruz standing with Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh during the fiasco may have saved him. The professor noted that O’Rourke name recognition went up to 50%. Cruz used to have a 38-44 negative rating, but is now at 48-44.
RealClearPolitics had the race as a Toss-Up, but recently changed it to Lean Republican. After all, the latest polls (not just Emerson) have Cruz up on O’Rourke. A CBS News/YouGov poll from October 2 to October 5 shows 50% of the respondents choosing Cruz while only 44% chose O’Rourke. Only 2% chose someone else and 4% said not sure.
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Comments
I saw the blue wave in the toilet bowl at the gas station…
So it was the brown wave, then?
Lol Cruz by 12, not even close
What was their poll in 2016?
Hillary by 99.9%? The
I’ve been saying Cruz by 10 for a couple months now, but you may be closer after last week.
To your question?… nope. Robert, the Irish Hispanic, never had a chance in Texas. It was Wendy Davis/blue wave all over again. All the big city papers in Texas are a left as Baltimore and they’ve been wishcasting for months. Even real Hispanics aren’t gonna fall for this crap.
Cruz was gonna win by 20 pts… and he still will.
I have to agree with RobM. While the leftist news media outlets have been hyping Robert Francis ‘Beto’ O’Rourke, Texas is still a mostly Red State with strong conservative values outside of the capital and a couple of big cities (and even the big cities only win democratic races by slim margins). Cruz wins by at least 10 points.
Ditto. My only question is – Do they deliberately skew the poll results to encourage Democratic turnout, or are they just inept?
it is actually the opposite
the media skews the polls to try and discourage Republicans from voting
it has been a common tactic of theirs for some time now
many of these polls oversample Democrats by 2-1 or 3-1 margins within a sample size of 300-500 people
polls have become almost non-newsworthy and should be held with the same skepticism as your mainstream media outlets
remember – we were told for over a year Donald J. Trump had no path to 270
but he’s the President of the United States and not Hillary R. Clinton
Left leaning pollsters skew the polling leading up to the elections to try and make Republicans think it is a lost cause or that their vote isn’t needed, so why waist your time voting.
They may give a flavoring of where things stand, but the effort is to encourage their leftist partners in ideology to turn out.
Always look to internal numbers, sample size, party breakdown, ethnic breakdown, and so on. Polls are only as good as how widespread they cast their net too. That isn’t given, so if they over sample a big city area they know they skew the vote left. Suburban areas tend toward moderate and right.
Push polls aren’t all that uncommon leading up to the elections either, which are more to get you to think more about voting for their candidate or suppressing enthusiasm toward your choice of candidate. They are closer to campaigning than polling, yet are used to skew average polling data. (They really should use median rather than average, as outliers throw that number off by a lot.)
All the real Hispanics that I know vote Republican anyhow.
Wendy Davis? You mean Abortion Barbie, whose kamikaze campaign against Greg Abbott lost so badly they had to send a diver to the paint locker of the Titanic to determine the numbers? THAT Wendy Davis?
Trump doesn’t have a chance. It’s a likely landslide for Hillary.
I’ve come to see these polls as a form of voter suppression.
Yeah, the two are unrelated. It would be poetic if it were true, but Napoleon Dynamite never stood a chance.
Mary you are ridiculous to think that Cruz needed saving and I will back Nov 7th to remind you how screwed up your analysis was.
No. While the fight for Justice Kavanaugh likely did have an impact on the numbers themselves, the improvement in numbers is the polling going from wishful thinking on the part of the Main Stream Morons to something marginally more resembling accuracy.
The polling is still lighter than what I expect the final numbers will be. My guess is that Cruz beats Francis O’Rourke by 15-18% when the dust settles. While O’Rourke voters have been “more vocal” in terms of their announcing their support, there is a strong, quiet backing for Sen. Cruz that people don’t feel like announcing in advance, because they don’t want to make themselves the targets for the crazies (aka Leftists, aka those vocally announcing their support for Francis O’Rourke).
RealClearPolitics had the race as a Toss-Up
Uh-huh. And what does Nostradamus say? And the Old Farmer’s Almanac? And, for a bit of diversity, the I Ching?
Just a suggestion: Stick with Chicago politics, and we’ll handle Texas.
Pick a poll. Any poll. Now split the deck. Here’s your winner. It’s science.
Whatever margin Abbott wins by Cruz will win by at least 2/3 ‘ s of that.
But, but, Beto’s gonna win because he’s going to get the votes of evangelical white women. The NY Times says so because they interviewed three of them today.
No doubt he will get all the Beto males
Master Beto MAY get the votes of the beta males, but I suspect that’s about all the votes he will get on the male side. Texas women tend to prefer men who act like men, not soy boys like Master Beto.