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New Model has Hawley Over McCaskill in Missouri Senate Race

New Model has Hawley Over McCaskill in Missouri Senate Race

“Our latest ballot model demonstrates a significant raw advantage for Hawley among individual voters.”

https://www.facebook.com/HawleyMO/photos/a.1655139418031987.1073741828.1636216106590985/1801534543392473/?type=3&theater

A new election model from a conservative polling group has Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley ahead of incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill, 53 to 47 percent. From The Washington Free Beacon:

The model, created by WPA Intelligence and shared with the Washington Free Beacon, was based on predictive data available for each of Missouri’s 4,101,062 registered voters and found Hawley to have a six-point advantage over McCaskill, 53 to 47 percent. The model uses available consumer data, voter history, and demographic information to assign each voter with a predictive score.

Among likely voters, the model categorized a roughly equal number of voters as leaning toward either candidate, with 609,694 voters rated “lean Hawley” and 589,849 as “lean McCaskill.” The model found Hawley’s advantage to be in voters who are firmly behind him, with 398,087 voters categorized as “likely Hawley” voters and only 311,750 categorized as “likely McCaskill” voters.

https://freebeacon.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/WPAi-MOSen.pdf

https://freebeacon.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/WPAi-MOSen.pdf

The Washington Free Beacon continued:

“Our latest ballot model demonstrates a significant raw advantage for Hawley among individual voters, and Missouri voters are primed to retire Claire McCaskill in favor of a senator who will represent their interests and values, not those of Chuck Schumer and the national Democrat Party,” said Brian Rodgers, executive director of Missouri Rising Action, a conservative group that commissioned the analysis.

“New reports about [Claire McCaskill] and her husband profiting millions from federal subsidies, taking advantage of tax loopholes, and using Cayman Island tax havens, are putting her record in full view for Missouri voters—and they want a change.”

WPA Intelligence said consumer data was available for 2,899,939 of these voters, and that vote history and demographic information were used to score the 1,201,123 voters without consumer data.

WPA Intelligence ran a poll for the Club for Growth Missouri a week ago and came back with similar results. That poll showed that Hawley’s support went up by 5 points from July to August and leads McCaskill 48 to 42 percent. The July poll had Hawley up 43 to 42 percent on McCaskill. Hawley also came out on top on the questions if voters have heard of both (49 to 43 percent) and have opinions on both (50 to 44 percent).

Other polls have basically shown Hawley-McCaskill tied. The Cook Political Report still has the race as a Toss-Up.

A poll from Missouri Scout that took place on August 8 and 9 has the candidates tied at 47% with 6% left undecided.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Missouri_Scout_August_2018.pdf

I’d also like to note that Hawley won the Missouri Bureau Straw Poll at the state fair on August 21. It’s unscientific, but as the bureau points out, McCaskill performed well in rural areas in the past:

With all this political buzz in Missouri simmering on the fairgrounds, Missouri Farm Bureau asked fairgoers to register their opinions in a straw poll. The 2,655 votes registered over the 11-day fair in mid-August picked Republican Attorney General Josh Hawley over Senator McCaskill, 72.8% to 27.2%.

This eye-popping 45.6-point margin showed stunningly strong support for Hawley. While many may attribute this margin to a more rural-leaning crowd at the fair, McCaskill has previously performed quite well in rural areas. In her last re-election in 2012, McCaskill actually won the areas outside Kansas City and St. Louis by about a 47% to 45% margin. Even her worst result out of Missouri’s 114 counties in 2012, Barton County, gave her 31% of the vote. No matter where 2018 straw poll voters came from, McCaskill’s performance may indicate a severe drop in support over the past six years that could be hard to overcome.

This sentiment did not come as a surprise to many farmers, however. Foreshadowing the straw poll’s lopsided margin, Missouri Farm Bureau members voted to endorse Hawley with a 93% vote at their August 10 endorsement session.

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Comments

Hope springs eternal… now we could use some news along these lines in the House races. Keeping the House, even with a decreased margin, would be better than what the Socialist Democrats would do to the President’s agenda, and would very likely lead to impeachment on some drummed up charges. The impeachment lust would go forward, with some dim hope that GOPe would join the full lock step Democratic Socialist Party in removing him from office, and if that didn’t work, they would use it as a tool for defeating him in 2020.

Just the endless investigations into everything they can dream of in the House, regardless of who the Speaker is, if the DS party takes the House is sickening. They want the country to do poorly, and they will use the useful idiots to get their way. I hope they just don’t have enough illegal and dead votes to overcome the Republican rivals.

    Mighty_WHrIGHTY in reply to oldgoat36. | August 24, 2018 at 1:11 pm

    What President’s agenda? With the exception of a tax bill that seems to benefit him more than virtually any person in the country, he has none. He has done tremendous damage by executive fiat. So nothing will change.

    There will be no impeachment until some of the Senate republicans see what damage he is doing to them. The democrats understand that Clinton benefited from impeachment. There will be investigations. Lots and lots of investigations with the democrats having subpoena power and the power to issue the report.

    They want the country to do poorly, and they will use the useful idiots to get their way.

    Yep, that is exactly how democrats feel about Trump, McConnell, et al.

    I hope they just don’t have enough illegal and dead votes to overcome the Republican rivals.

    Prove it! G’Damn it. Prove it. The truth of the matter is that you are in the minority. You can try to slow things. But time and tide are eternal.

    Trump will never make American great because he is not a great man. He is a little, thin-skinned, cheap, greedy, lazy, reactionary liar without vision.

The model uses available consumer data, voter history, and demographic information to assign each voter with a predictive score.

As always, they won’t mention the most important factor—a reading of sheep’s entrails—as nobody wants those PETA types doing to them what just happened to the Animal Crackers box.

Hawley is going to need a bigger margin to cover the vote fraud. Let’s hope the conservative polling group isn’t just helping the Dems know which ballot boxes need to be stuffed with more ballots.

It’s just amazing how ofte prosecutions of Republican politicians takes place just before elections when it’s too late to find replacement candidates.

Her family has inexplicably made over a $120M via government contracts. Her husband had the unusual ability to direct Federal subsidies to EVERY single housing project he involved himself in.

Now that most GOP primaries are over, polling is starting to resume and the gaps are closing. Many of the Senators who led by 10 points in blue states are seeing their advantage disappear into the margin of error.

    Another Voice in reply to Matt_SE. | August 26, 2018 at 12:24 am

    The Democrat party can’t seem agree on their platform. With the fall out this past week, the lack of a pragmatic and defined platform is going to be sending reps back to their district with more identity and socialist messages to further erode a party who cannot connect with and for the majority they’ll need to have the house and senate majority. This has been the GOP message out the gate at even the local level of town, county and state elections even in blue states that have hard red districts with conservative voters.

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