A Reuters/Ipsos poll shows a generic ballot lead for the 2018 congressional midterms … in favor of Republicans.
WUT?
Republicans hold a slim lead over Democrats in a generic ballot among registered voters, a new Reuters poll found, marking the first time the survey showed the GOP ahead in this election cycle.The poll showed 38.1 percent of registered voters said they would vote for a Republican candidate if midterm elections were held today, compared to just under 37 percent who said they’d vote for a Democrat. …The new poll was conducted on May 17 and surveyed 1,338 registered voters.For the week ending May 20, pollsters also found that Republicans held a nearly 6-point advantage over Democrats. That marked a 9-point swing from the previous week, when Democrats held a 3-point lead among registered voters.The results are a stark contrast to previous polls, which showed Democrats with a 10-point edge as of late April.
That 6 point Republican lead in the most recent of the rolling Reuters/Ipsos polls is particularly shocking, and must be an outlier. Nonetheless, the poll is in keeping with a trend of tightening generic ballot polls. CNN reported earlier this month that Democrats’ 2018 advantage is nearly gone.
What a change since last fall, when we reported how the Cook Political report anticipated A 2018 Democrat Wave Is Building In The House. At that point in time, Democrats were up 8+ points in the generic ballot, down from double-digit leads but still substantial.
It was all doom and gloom, but in a break from my generally dread-ful mood, I wrote in January 2018, Don’t fall for Operation Demoralize 2018:
Sure, Republicans should take seriously the signs that the 2018 midterms could go against them. That is the history of a party that wins a presidency — look what happened to Obama and Democrats in 2010. And there have been some on-the-ground indications (not Alabama, which was unique) that Democrats are outperforming.The key is to motivate our voters, despite the media, Democrat and #NeverTrump Republican efforts to get them to stay home. The lesson is not to get complacent and do nothing. But to recognize the strategy and work against it.To quote the old saying, I was born at night, but I wasn’t born last night. Much of what you are seeing is Operation Demoralize 2018.
Generic ballot polling isn’t so much an electoral predictor, as a mood measure. And the mood in the country is moving in favor of optimism, as reflected in two Gallup surveys released in the last few days.
First, Optimism About Availability of Good Jobs Hits New Heights:
Sixty-seven percent of Americans believe that now is a good time to find a quality job in the U.S., the highest percentage in 17 years of Gallup polling. Optimism about the availability of good jobs has grown by 25 percentage points since Donald Trump was elected president.Gallup has asked Americans to say whether it is a good time or bad time to find a quality job monthly since August 2001. Prior to 2017, the percentage saying “good time” never reached 50%, but since Trump took office in January that year, the percentage has stayed at or above 50% and has been higher than 60% in eight of the past nine months.
Another Gallup survey showed Satisfaction With Way Things Are Going in U.S. Rises to 37%:
Thirty-seven percent of Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in the country today, up from 29% in April. Gallup has not measured a higher level of satisfaction since a 39% reading in late September 2005, although 37% were also satisfied right before the November 2016 election, and 36% were satisfied in February 2018 after the State of the Union address.
What this all means is that #TheResistance is losing. The lunatic politics that has taken over the Democratic Party and particularly its base no longer is working.
Democrats have become the party of Russia Russia Russia, and Stormy Stormy Stormy, and impeachment impeachment impeachment, and constitutional crisis, constitutional crisis, constitutional crisis. It’s exhausting people.
I’m not predicting a Red Wave, yet, but if trends continue, my 2018 prediction likely will come true:
Republicans will pick up 4 net seats in the Senate, and hold the House with a reduced majority of 10-15.
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