#TheResistance is losing
Democrat generic ballot lead evaporates amid a wave of optimism
A Reuters/Ipsos poll shows a generic ballot lead for the 2018 congressional midterms … in favor of Republicans.
WUT?
Republicans hold a slim lead over Democrats in a generic ballot among registered voters, a new Reuters poll found, marking the first time the survey showed the GOP ahead in this election cycle.
The poll showed 38.1 percent of registered voters said they would vote for a Republican candidate if midterm elections were held today, compared to just under 37 percent who said they’d vote for a Democrat. …
The new poll was conducted on May 17 and surveyed 1,338 registered voters.
For the week ending May 20, pollsters also found that Republicans held a nearly 6-point advantage over Democrats. That marked a 9-point swing from the previous week, when Democrats held a 3-point lead among registered voters.
The results are a stark contrast to previous polls, which showed Democrats with a 10-point edge as of late April.
That 6 point Republican lead in the most recent of the rolling Reuters/Ipsos polls is particularly shocking, and must be an outlier. Nonetheless, the poll is in keeping with a trend of tightening generic ballot polls. CNN reported earlier this month that Democrats’ 2018 advantage is nearly gone.
What a change since last fall, when we reported how the Cook Political report anticipated A 2018 Democrat Wave Is Building In The House. At that point in time, Democrats were up 8+ points in the generic ballot, down from double-digit leads but still substantial.
It was all doom and gloom, but in a break from my generally dread-ful mood, I wrote in January 2018, Don’t fall for Operation Demoralize 2018:
Sure, Republicans should take seriously the signs that the 2018 midterms could go against them. That is the history of a party that wins a presidency — look what happened to Obama and Democrats in 2010. And there have been some on-the-ground indications (not Alabama, which was unique) that Democrats are outperforming.
The key is to motivate our voters, despite the media, Democrat and #NeverTrump Republican efforts to get them to stay home. The lesson is not to get complacent and do nothing. But to recognize the strategy and work against it.
To quote the old saying, I was born at night, but I wasn’t born last night. Much of what you are seeing is Operation Demoralize 2018.
Generic ballot polling isn’t so much an electoral predictor, as a mood measure. And the mood in the country is moving in favor of optimism, as reflected in two Gallup surveys released in the last few days.
First, Optimism About Availability of Good Jobs Hits New Heights:
Sixty-seven percent of Americans believe that now is a good time to find a quality job in the U.S., the highest percentage in 17 years of Gallup polling. Optimism about the availability of good jobs has grown by 25 percentage points since Donald Trump was elected president.
Gallup has asked Americans to say whether it is a good time or bad time to find a quality job monthly since August 2001. Prior to 2017, the percentage saying “good time” never reached 50%, but since Trump took office in January that year, the percentage has stayed at or above 50% and has been higher than 60% in eight of the past nine months.
Another Gallup survey showed Satisfaction With Way Things Are Going in U.S. Rises to 37%:
Thirty-seven percent of Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in the country today, up from 29% in April. Gallup has not measured a higher level of satisfaction since a 39% reading in late September 2005, although 37% were also satisfied right before the November 2016 election, and 36% were satisfied in February 2018 after the State of the Union address.
What this all means is that #TheResistance is losing. The lunatic politics that has taken over the Democratic Party and particularly its base no longer is working.
Democrats have become the party of Russia Russia Russia, and Stormy Stormy Stormy, and impeachment impeachment impeachment, and constitutional crisis, constitutional crisis, constitutional crisis. It’s exhausting people.
I’m not predicting a Red Wave, yet, but if trends continue, my 2018 prediction likely will come true:
Republicans will pick up 4 net seats in the Senate, and hold the House with a reduced majority of 10-15.
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Comments
I suspect that the “Blue Wave” is going to morph into a “Red Tsunami” as all the reports of “doom and gloom” related to Trump’s presidency has shown to be lies, distortions, and smears. Additionally, Americans hate cheaters…and the game of I Spy that Team Obama played in 2016 is the origin of the oncoming GOP Tidal Wave.
“Americans hate cheaters”
Aye, particularly when that cheating would screw us over as well were it to succeed. Another thing to consider is that we generally respect those who persevere in the face of adversity, something Trump has had to do plenty of both during the campaign and his Presidency so far.
I don’t buy anything pollsters do any more and as evenly divided as the nation is, no one should. They can easily manipulate the outcome depending on the motive of the pollsters.
Conspiracy theory alert based on admittedly simplistic logic:
All pollsters had Hillary beating Trump.
Trump beats Hillary.
Many people blame pollsters for getting it wrong and creating a false sense of security.
Left leaning pollsters resample closer to election time to skew results towards Republicans and make Dems the underdog.
Embracing an underdog role may improve voter turnout and ultimately swing more close races their way.
/tinfoil
Americans tend to root for the underdog, so it isn’t all that far fetched to have pollsters, many of whom are leftist leaning if not full on left, at least the main ones which are tied to media or universities. I’ve noticed lately that polls change closer to elections, which also have a change in the sampling numbers.
One thing harder to gauge is Republican voters, as a decent number of conservatives have changed to independent over being registered as Republicans due to the let down from the party, but they still vote primarily Republican as that is the closest to the party that would lean slightly conservative that has a chance to be elected.
Completely agree with both comments above, but see it from a slightly different angle. As I always say:
Never forget, despite having almost complete control over the press, academia, entertainment and social media, they STILL need to massive numbers of illegals, homeless, felons, fraud and union$ turnout to win… and now they can’t even manage that.
So they way I see it is they use all of that power to promote the notion that their party is the one that everyone is going to. But as the election gets closer, they have to do two things..prepare them for a reality slap and motivate them to turn out.
I have been predicting a Red Wave since Kanye West.
I’m writing a little blues ballad along the lines of Stormy Monday called Stormy Stormy Russia (but North Korea’s just as bad).
I remember the Bobby Bland version of that T-Bone Walker song! And, “The eagle flies…” at the end of the week in the song and at the end of this leftist coup I pray.
I like the Allman Brothers version, too.
I have a prediction but I refuse to voice it.
Because I have been wrong every time I predicted a SCOTUS ruling. Every. Single. Time.
My wife says I’m jinxed. She won’t even let me discuss tomorrow’s weather. Because one find April day I remarked “thank God spring is finally here” which resulted in a blizzard that weekend, snow 6 feet deep.
So I’m keeping mum.
There are only two things that can be predicted about Supreme Court decisions:
1) The law and Constitution will not be involved, except to be overturned.
2) It will be detrimental to the American people.
If that’s what you always predict, you must end up being wrong an awful lot.
More people are realising that Trump is good for America. Iranians and North Koreans are worried, rightfully worried. I love it that they are worried.
Trump’s actions have improved the economy, improved the job market, and when things are going well economically it is hard to go against the source for a good economy. Less money woes means families are happier, less stress filled.
With the Democrats crying impeach Trump, and making that a battle cry for the election, as well as saying they want to increase your taxes, it is hard to vote for more turmoil in the market (that’s retirement hopes for many people) and less in the paycheck. In a way it is like voting for the “free stuff” which never really materializes, it is voting in your benefit.
Regan was reelected in a large wave because of the economy compared to Carter’s term. Despite the playing with numbers like Obama did with unemployment and the economic factors, people didn’t notice any appreciable improvement in their own well fare. With Trump they are. It’s hard making a vote for change when things are going well, despite what the media is trying to push.
Just a clarification: Iranian and North Korean LEADERS are worried; I suspect the Iranian and North Korean people (as much as they’re able to hear of the news) are hopeful and excited!
O/T
Levin: Mueller’s appointment was unconstitutional
https://www.conservativereview.com/news/levin-muellers-appointment-was-unconstitutional/
can someone brins an amicus curae brief to d.c. and SCOTUS challenging the appointment and ongoing witch hunt ?
Thanx
Read about this yesterday. It certainly sounds compelling, and I would love to see everything this witch hunt has been end up being tossed because it coming from an unconstitutional move. Liberal heads and the propaganda wing would have their heads exploding all over the place, and it would remove their phony claims of Hillary being upstanding because there were no indictments, and Trump is evil because Mueller has been playing Gestapo tactics to persuade some to give anything to him that could be used against Trump.
The #resistance needs to be imprisoned, not just lose.
May sessions rot in hell for his complicity in it.
Warning. Liberal fake poll!
It is not real similar to the early polls showing a blue wave were real. It has three purposes.
To make GOP voters complacent and not show up at polls.
To boost Trump up and make him fear shaking up things and screwing up the polls by firing Mueller, Rosenstein or Sessions. So he keeps the investigation in place.
If he does one of the three above, then watch the polls swing the other way and try to get some members of the GOP get upset with Trump for messing things.
I didn’t believe the early polls. I don’t believe the present polls. The swing is too large. What I do believe is that either the Republicans will slightly increase in the House ( more in the Senate ) or at worse out-preform the first midterm electi9on averages.
I don’t think Trump lives and dies by the polls as Clinton and Obama did. Many of their actions were gauged against what the polls said, especially Clinton, he determined actions through polls, which helped keep him popular.
Whether the poll is an outlier or not, the GOP ought to nationalize the mid-term election around the econ9my. Do it after Labor Day weekend. Run morning in America ads.
Polls? Seriously? I can’t be the only guy that lies through my teeth every time I talk to a pollster.
I continue to maintain that these polls are worthless because the OIG and other reports will be coming out between then and now that will show the country what much of the Left has been up to. I maintain we are on the cusp of an information wave that will result in the very existence of the Democratic Party questionable. Once the public is made aware of the multitudes of illegal abuses by Obama and Democrats, there will be a price to pay for the Left.
>
I first made this claim months ago when the Left held a double digit generic lead over Republicans. As more and more information comes out and as the economy continues to do things Obie and the Dems claimed to be impossible, the country’s mood has shifted substantially. Expect more as time goes by.
Was a six point democrat lead ever described as ‘slim’?
They polled less than 1500 registered voters. I don’t trust Statistics any farther than I can throw my $300 textbook.
My favorite post 2016 comment was the Oberlin undergrad who didn’t understand how Trump won because he did not know a single person who voted for him. I bet he describes himself as inclusive and diverse as well.
Make America Greater. Be sure and vote in the coming midterm election.
Question for the Democrats in 2018: Other than delusional and irrational Trump Hate 24/7, what are you going to offer the voters?
*Can’t talk about the economy. It’s on fire.
*Can’t talk about foreign trade. Trump has the Chinese modulation their tariffs.
*Can’t talk about foreign policy. Americans appear to understand and approve of ‘America First’. (Suck it, J. Kerry)
*Can’t talk about unemployment. Especially Black, inner city unemployment.
There are no real “pocketbook issues” for Dems to seize on.
So that leaves:
*Globalism and One World Government
*Man Made Climate Change
*Coddling of illegal aliens without distinguishing illegal criminal aliens.
*Abortion, abortion, abortion.
*LGBT rights
*Unfounded attacks on the FBI and DOJ
*Disastrous tax cuts
*Trump hate, Trump hate, Trump hate.
I see some sorely disappointed Dems in 2018.
Have to add gun control and impeach Trump to this list. Gun control is the number one issue right now for the Dims.
And lok at how well the AWB turned out for them in 94. But since it has been 24 years, about the same amount of time between major wars, maybe the smart ones who got bitch-slapped have gone off or have forgotten, and it is another time to school them. FWIW, the fall-out from the AWB went wider than congress, and that continued grassroots actions is why we have concealed carry an way way more places than there were in 94. people have tasted freedom, and taking it away will be much much harder now.
Exactly this!
The Dems run on hate and nothing else. They actually have nothing to run BUT thats only because they have backed themselves in to this corner! All they have campaigned on is hate, hate and more hate!!
But it turns out that the people actually like being employed and earning money and don’t give a rats flying fuck about what the Democrats care about (clue: hate!).
There are no real “pocketbook issues” for Dems to seize on.
Add to your list of residuals, ‘Drain the swamp’ … the most recent Alinsky inspired (“Control the language, you control the people.”) DEM tactic spouted by Chuck & Nancy.
One can only wonder in disbelief.
Do you think they cackle hysterically in private when they see themselves in the mirror?
My boss says it was easier to be an employer a few years ago, because employees had nowhere to go if they didn’t like the pay or conditions, and that has changed.
This is a subtle change that doesn’t show up in statistics, but it may show up in the voting booth.