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Reid “Fairly Certain” Democrats Will Retake Senate in November

Reid “Fairly Certain” Democrats Will Retake Senate in November

Is he right?

As he has repeatedly stated, Obama is confident that a Democrat will win the White House in November, and now Harry Reid is expressing that he is “fairly certain” that Democrats will take back the Senate this year.

The Hill reports:

Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) said on Sunday that he thinks his party will win back the majority in the Senate this year.

During a radio interview with John Catsimatidis, Reid detailed the Democratic efforts against several vulnerable GOP senators up for reelection this year.

Considering that Democrats need win only five Senate seats (they currently have 46 seats, including the two Independents who caucus with them) to accomplish this goal and given the disarray on the right, Reid’s prediction seems far less laughable than it would have only a year ago.

The Hill continues:

“We only need four [seats] to take the majority,” he said. “With the numbers I’ve given you, it’s going to be a fairly certain thing that we can do that.”

Reid predicted earlier in the interview the Democrats would win, or at least compete for, Senate seats in Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Florida, New Hampshire, Iowa and Arizona.

Reid’s assertion that Democrats need to take four instead of five seats is rooted in his belief that Hillary (or a Democrat) will win the White House in November and the Democrat Vice President would be the tie-breaking vote in the Senate.

According to Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the chances of Democrats taking up to six seats in November has improved in recent months.

Sabato, et al. write:

[T]he Crystal Ball is changing six Senate race ratings, all in a Democratic direction. This does not mean Democrats will actually win all six, though one was already leaning toward the Democrats. As for the other five, two races are now designated pure Toss-ups, and the three other states where we are making a change still favor Republicans, though less so than earlier. There is a clear if premature trend here.

The six states Sabato discusses as moving toward Democrats are:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/senate-governor-2016-several-ratings-move-toward-democrats/

While it seems rather unlikely that some of these states will go with a Democrat, the shift that Sabato notes is worth consideration.  It’s also worth noting that only four of the six states Sabato mentions are also mentioned by Reid:  Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, and Iowa.

Reid believes that Florida, Wisconsin, Illinois, New Hampshire, and Arizona are also in play this November.  Given that Obama won Florida, Illinois, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in both 2008 and in 2012, Democrats have reason to believe that these states are in play.

The Cook Report has Florida, Illinois, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin as currently held Republican Senate seats that are toss-ups, and only one currently held Democrat Senate seat that is a toss-up this year (Reid’s in Nevada).

The Cook Report also has North Carolina as “Leans Republican” and Colorado (now held by a Democrat) as only “Leans Democrat,” and Arizona (McCain’s seat) as “Likely Republican.”

Democrats need five Senate seats to retake the Senate, and while it’s not a lock, things don’t look good for Republicans who are defending 24 seats to the Democrats’ 10.

Not only is the Senate in play, but the House may be, as well.  While the House would be harder for Democrats because they need to win 30 seats, it’s not impossible.  It may not even be improbable at this point.  After all, Republicans needed 39 House seats in 2010 to win the majority (and ended up winning 63 that year).

Given the current chaos and uncertainty on the right, Democrats are in a position they didn’t expect to see for several more election cycles and are starting to realize that they might be able to pick up a lot of House seats in November.  However, because they didn’t expect their chance this soon, their bench is practically bare (unlike the GOP bench in 2010), and they aren’t ready to compete at the level needed to retake the House.  Hopefully, anyway.

U. S. News reports:

Critics within and outside the [Democrat] party say the sudden instability on the right caught Democrats, resigned to long-term House minority status by redistricting, flat-footed, and without viable candidates in newly-competitive seats. Add in a few strategic missteps with unfavorable historic trends, the argument goes, and it’s less probable that House Democrats can reverse a 30-seat Republican advantage, a difficult feat under most circumstances.

“Republicans are sitting on their largest majority since 1928 – 247 seats to 188 – meaning Democrats would need to pick up 30 seats, a daunting challenge given the GOP’s immense redistricting advantage and the vaporization of swing districts,” analyst David Wasserman wrote in last month’s Cook Political Report.

In their 2014 Democrat Party autopsy, Democrats noted their stunning losses since 2008:

-69 House Seats 

13 Senate Seats 

910 State Legislative Seats 

30 State Legislative Chambers 

11 Governorships

These numbers provide a snapshot of the damage a president—as party leader—can do at the national and state level.  Something that’s worth thinking about as we move closer to November and the general election.

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Comments

rabid wombat | May 1, 2016 at 4:58 pm

If you need a reason to vote….think of the Supreme Court with Hillary and a Democratic Senate…

the Trumpslide will bury them.

    PaulM in reply to redc1c4. | May 1, 2016 at 5:21 pm

    redc1c4 wrote, “the Trumpslide will bury them.”

    Bury which, the Democrats or the Republicans?

    Estragon in reply to redc1c4. | May 2, 2016 at 6:29 am

    Trump loses badly, in Goldwater numbers, carrying no more states than Barry did. He also loses the Senate – won’t be close – and puts the House at risk as well.

    His unfavorable rating hasn’t ticked below 60% since he announced, and is now at the all-time high negative measured by Gallup.

    His stupid supporters are too blind to see that 40% of the GOP vote translates into a pittance in the general election.

      Barry in reply to Estragon. | May 2, 2016 at 10:05 am

      “His stupid supporters ”

      Ah, the stupid calling every one else stupid.

      Note: Estragone will not even declare what candidate he supports. Why is that? Because if he did we would all know him for the lickspittle GOPe supporter he truly is. He will tell us what is good for us…

The pundits say that every two years and it never comes to pass. Example, they all said that the DemocRATs would smash the Republicans in 2014. Look what happened.

I can’t wait until Reid slinks back into the shadows, so I never have to hear about him again. What human garbage.

He needs to say this, because it definitely will not happen if he does not. That said, the Democratic policies, not just Hillary Clinton, are taking this country in the wrong direction.

    healthguyfsu in reply to Valerie. | May 1, 2016 at 10:23 pm

    Actually, it could have the opposite effect of energizing the lethargic party of entitlements.

The Dems never lost the Senate. McConnell has faithfully continued Reid’s work.

The source of the turmoil is obvious. Romney was declared the nominee with 600 delegates. I don’t remember McCain but it was about the same. Yet the GOPe came up with #neverTrump. This has just increased the anger that is out there. Now there are many who are even calling the GOPe, Whigs 2.0 and taking votes not to vote down ticket.

If Trump becomes the nominee, the anger does not go away but the turmoil does and these candidates can run in peace.

Imagine if all that money these antiTrump superPACS have wasted, was instead used for Congressional elections.

Oh one more thing. Don’t confirm Garland.

    Anti-Trump super-packs. Huh. He got billions in free coverage, and to be sure he will continue getting his free coverage- out of the courtroom. Imagine the drama!

Democrats are poised to recover. They generally do better during presidential elections, and this year is looking particularly good for them. Hillary will have no problem turning out the young, the women, the minorities, the ideological base even if they re not excited about her personally. Even if Trump doesn’t get the nomination, too many people (young, Hispanics) are registering to vote against him. They will sure come out in November.
Tea party will be wiped out.
With Trump running on the Republican side, SCOTUS will be lost for another generation, and that’s not the worst of it.

It is no secret that Democrats are trying to find candidates in districts usually considered Republican. Move is based on the anticipation of Trump candidacy providing such negative coattails that Democrats will take over, and it is not an unreasonable expectation on Democrats’ side.

“-69 House Seats

– 13 Senate Seats ”

And yet, it appears the democrats are still in control.

Common Sense | May 2, 2016 at 9:05 am

What do you expect the liar Harry Reid to say?

That Trump is going to shred Crooked Hillary?

Voting for the dems is down about 30% this year.

Voting for the republicans is up about 60% this year.

We have been told time after time that Trump can’t do this or that! Guess what all the experts are wrong. Trump will be the nominee. He beat 16 other candidates!
He will shred Hillary and they will hold the house and the Senate!

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