Image 01 Image 03

Mass Senate race tightens as Obama bounce helps Warren

Mass Senate race tightens as Obama bounce helps Warren

A poll by Kimball Political Consulting, apparently a Republican leaning entity, found that the Senate race has tightened.

Whereas two weeks ago Brown was up by 6 (consistent with PPP finding Brown up by 5 with likely voters), now Brown is up by less than 1%.  Obama’s 16% lead is up 5% versus the prior poll (here), and Warren has closed the gap by that same 5%.

It looks like Warren is benefitting from an Obama bounce:

 In the days following the Democratic Convention President Obama has extended his lead over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney to 16 points (56 percent to 40 percent with 9% undecided) according to a Kimball Political Consulting survey of “likely voters” in Massachusetts.

Senator Scott Brown has less than a 1 point lead over Democrat Elizabeth Warren (46 percent to 45 percent) with 9 percent undecided. The figure is well within the survey’s 3.5 percent margin of error.

“While pundits often suggest that conventions have little effect on voters these results contradict that assumption,” explained Spencer Kimball, a Republican Strategist who conducted the poll. Compared to an earlier survey of the “most likely to vote” population two weeks before the convention Obama gained 5 points while Brown dropped by 5 immediately after the Democratic convention.

“Both Senator Brown and Elizabeth Warren are carrying very high favorability rating at over 50% each.  This may be the result of both campaigns’ pledge to keep outside money from buying negative ads,” said Kimball.

It speaks to the fundamental weakness of Warren that she lags 11 points behind the presidential nominee of her own party (Obama getting 56%, Warren 45%).

As I predicted two weeks ago, it is not surprising that there is some fluctuation in the polls.  Let’s see how long the Obama bounce helps Warren.

Update:  The Boston NPR station has a very good analysis of Warren’s many problems, What’s Wrong With The Warren Campaign:

Elizabeth Warren continues to raise huge sums of money, a lot of it from outside Massachusetts. But when the money gets here, it supports a plodding, low-wattage, organizational campaign that can’t figure out how to present the candidate, seems unable to communicate, ducks the news media, and produces generic TV spots….

Tribal warfare. She and her campaign were unable to shut off questions this spring about her Cherokee heritage and it cost her a month’s worth of news coverage. Native Americans tried to meet with her in Boston but she declined. At last week’s Democratic convention, they again tried to meet with her; she again refused. Like the Indiana strikers who dogged Mitt Romney in his race against Ted Kennedy, this ain’t over; it’s coming back this fall in debates and TV spots.



Donations tax deductible
to the full extent allowed by law.


Let the people decide who will represent them. That is the double-edged sword of our democracy.

If the people of Massachusetts are given a clear choice, and they elect Lyin’ Lizzie Warren, they deserve what they get.

If the people of the U.S. re-elect Pres. Paracosm, provided the choice they have, I am content. The glorious experiment that was this nation will have ended, and we will part ways.

If the people of the U.S. re-elect Pres. Paracosm, provided the choice they have, I am content. The glorious experiment that was this nation will have ended, and we will part ways.

Since this nation was founded on universal truths, those truths will be resurrected somewhere, somehow, in a manner impossible to foresee, even if we throw away our birthright. Hopefully, if it comes to that, those future societies, our successors, will learn from our mistakes.

Another Athens shall arise,
And to remoter time
Bequeath, like sunset to the skies,
The splendour of its prime;
And leave, if naught so bright may live,
All earth can take or Heaven can give.

It hasn’t come to that yet and, Heaven willing, it won’t.

    BannedbytheGuardian in reply to gs. | September 11, 2012 at 8:29 pm

    Percy would like some acknowledgment . Not everyone knows their poets.

    counsel4pay in reply to gs. | September 11, 2012 at 11:29 pm



    “No Way, Lizzy”

    As a lawyer, Liz was “fair”,
    But to be “Prof” she had to share
    MINORITY traits that just weren’t there.
    Oh, poor Lizzy.

    And then she had a wicked dream,
    She’d steal a “Cherokee Nation” theme,
    Theft of a race was her crazy scheme,
    Crazy, crazy Lizzy.

    Harvard bought the lie real fast,
    And Liz kept lying to the last!
    She could deceive with stunning class!
    Dirty, dirty Lizzy.

    Now Cherokees kept perfect lists,
    Of their descendants in our midst,
    And Lizzy’s name did not exist!
    Oh, oh Lizzy.

    But when confronted by her fraud,
    Liz attacked–she wasn’t awed
    By truth, or even Indian Gods
    Danger, danger Lizzy!

    In fact the TRUTH was stranger still,
    LIZ’ soldier forebears killed,
    The Cherokees who were living still!

    Now Massachusetts must decide,
    If Liz, with BO right at her side,
    Can mock both state and indian pride.
    NO, NO, LIZZY.


    Can be sung to the tune of “London Bridges Falling Down.”
    Hey, I’m only good for cheap rhymes.

ot hey prof. jacobson.

there’s a 3rd party candidate for the senate in md.

What Obama bounce? The one the dogs humping his leg invented?

You would have thought that the Massachusetts Democrats would have learned their lesson with Martha Coakley.

Buck up! If Obama is ahead (and I doubt it) it is by a field goal advantage and we are in the third quarter. And don’t get me started about Lizzy Borden Warren!

The polls are @#$%. Don’t be fooled.

The only polls that count are inside polls, and no one other than the people commissioning them see the results.

I would caution about putting any credence at all in a single poll, no matter what it says.