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Scott Brown surges ahead of Martha Coakley

Scott Brown surges ahead of Martha Coakley

No, that’s not a typo or some psychological slip.

It’s what I believe to reflect a sea change in how people view the Scott Brown – Elizabeth Warren match-up.

Earlier this week PPP released a poll showing Brown ahead by 5 points, and people were stunned particularly on the left.

For the first time in their adult lives, the progressive movement is wondering out loud whether the “nice guy” Brown is beatable at all, and whether Warren is up to the task.  Demands that Warren “nationalize” (how fitting a word!) the race are increasing.

Warren herself seems desperate to lash out on the war on women theme so much so that she is becoming a caricature.

All in all, there is a sense in the air that resembles what took place in early January 2010 when the political world collectively came to the realization that the Democrats had nominated a seriously flawed candidate, and were up against a guy with a unique political talent and ability to connect with the folks.

Make no mistake, Warren’s bizarre handling of her false claim to Native American ancestry has compounded if not caused the problem, as it revealed a personality defect which is not very becoming.

PPP’s results now have been confirmed by a second poll just released which shows Brown up by 6 points (via Weekly Standard):

According to a Kimball Political Consulting survey of registered voters in Massachusetts, Senator Scott Brown has a 6 point lead over Democrat Elizabeth Warren (49 percent to 43 percent) with 9 percent undecided. The figure is just within the survey’s 4 percent margin of error.

President Obama continues to hold a double digit lead over former Massachusetts Mitt Romney (52 percent to 41 percent) with 7 percent undecided. Poll results are based on a sample of respondents most likely to vote in November.

“Senator Brown is winning decisively among independents but Warren still has a chance to come back. The data suggest that for Warren to close the gap it may be time for her to change her emphasis, from the cost of education to job creation,” said Spencer Kimball, Political Consultant and President of Kimball Political Consulting….

Independent voters are splitting their voting choices between President Obama and Senator Brown; 56% of Independents favor the Senator and 44% intend to vote for the President.  Warren also needs to shore up her base of Democrat support with 21% of Democrats saying they would vote for Brown.

The most important issue facing likely voters in Massachusetts is jobs at 40 percent followed by the deficit at 21 percent.

There will be ups and downs in the polling.  Just days before the election in January 2010 there were polls showing Coakley running strong, but no one believed it anymore, it was against the trend, and the momentum on the ground was all Brown.

To put it in plain terms, Democrats selected a class and sex warrior when people are not concerned with those issues.

The Warren campaign and Warren herself seem as befuddled and confused as Martha Coakley standing outside Fenway for the Winter Classic hockey game refusing to shake hands with fans.

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Comments

    scrubjay in reply to Fuzzy. | August 25, 2012 at 7:39 am

    What idea are you expressing about Warren?

      Hee! I was trying to tweet the post, but I couldn’t think of a way to make the headline make sense in a tweet, started to explain here, noticed I’d be first commenter, tried to quit, what was left of my I thought deleted comment posted. Oh well.

Henry Hawkins | August 24, 2012 at 7:10 pm

Scott Brown owes LI big time. Heh. Keep it up.

Perhaps Brown will help Romney win Massachusettes.

Let’s be frank here.

Brown is not the second coming of Barry Goldwater or Robert Taft.

But he is a patriot who selflessly serves his country in uniform, has been married to the same woman forever, has beautiful children that are vibrant and successful in their own right.

He has also paid his dues by serving as an elected official in his hometown of Wrentham, most notably as a Selectman. He has been elected to serve at the state level as a State Senator as a Republican in a state where the entire Republican delegation could fit into a Chevy Suburban – literally.

I do not agree with Brown on everything, some things I disagree with him vehemently.

But I do not question his character. I know that if he votes a certain way that he truly believes in what he is doing and will defend it with vigor. Anyone who has called in to Howie Carr’s radio show in Boston and tried to go 15 rounds with Brown is just asking for a beating. He is good, very, very good.

In sum, he is a traditional retail politician of the old school. A man who is honest and decent that truly represents is constituents.

Warren?

True story.

Her husband was one of my customers. Bruce is a really good guy. I had many a conversation with him about everything from grass to medieval history. He is a very interesting man. I never spoke to him of politics. I have set eyes upon his wife twice – exchanged pleasantries but nothing more. From my personal experience, I could offer no insight into her true persona.

But what cannot be disputed is that she has never been elected to any office at any level of government. She cannot claim that she has accumulated the experience that I believe necessary to represent a state of our size and breadth.

Here’s something else.

I cannot say that Ted Kennedy was a good man. There are so many true stories of this man that soil irreparably his reputation that it is not worth discussing.

Yet the man was one of the longest serving Senators in American history.

Ask yourself why.

I’ll tell you.

He and his staff were dedicated to constituent service. If you called his office it was like calling the fire department. His staff would go to incredible lengths to accommodate his voters.

I remember as a kid (something like 1976) a neighbor calling “Teddy’s office” and asking to speak with the Senator. No kidding – five seconds later he was on the line calling my neighbor by her first name and personally pledging to help her with whatever her concern was.

He may have been a demon for what he did to Mary Jo, but his constituents knew the other side of the man. And that’s why he died in office.

Sorry for the rambling.

    Henry Hawkins in reply to turfmann. | August 24, 2012 at 7:41 pm

    “He (Ted Kennedy) and his staff were dedicated to constituent service. If you called his office it was like calling the fire department. His staff would go to incredible lengths to accommodate his voters.”

    As a NC resident I was frequently asked how Jesse Helms kept getting elected. Same thing.

      Estragon in reply to Henry Hawkins. | August 24, 2012 at 11:00 pm

      SC’s Strom Thurmond & Fritz Hollings were the same way. When my daughter in service was pregnant, she was eligible to get out but her skills were critical and rare, so her base commander (Fort Campbell) made her promises in my presence to induce her to stay in, and she did.

      Then, after the baby came, he reneged completely. One call to Strom got her an apology and a sweeter deal. Elapsed time from call to apology: less than 24 hours.

    gasper in reply to turfmann. | August 24, 2012 at 9:15 pm

    I had read somewhere where Kennedy was one of the best Senators to work for. Be that as it may, the reason people like the Kennedys, Reids, and all the others keep getting re-elected is because they bring home the pork. It will be a good day in this country when that is not seen as a good sign of governing. I met a lady last year at an event who said she was going to vote for Reid because he had done a lot of good for Nevada. I honked her off when I said, “Yeah, with my money”. That’s how they judge people. That’s why you can’t get these people out of office. They do so much good for THEIR people at the expense of other people. Just a slice of socialism within our current system. It’s more than the good deeds for individuals they may do, it’s the good deeds they do for the big people that count. Think about it…it doesn’t cost them a damn thing to be altruistic. They’re using our money.

      “Bringing home the pork” is counter productive to good government. If my Senator “creates” funding for a pet project, it is paid for with tax dollars that we all pay. So Senator X does this and is loved by his/her constituents. So are Senators Y and Z who fund pet projects for their states. All paid for with your tax dollars. If the money stayed in the state with the state government providing for the pet project. Maryland would not be paying for a super fast train in California, California would and the voters could vote out the jackasses who funded the pet project.
      And, the companies that get these contracts contribute heavily to Senators X, Y and Z.

    ars21689 in reply to turfmann. | August 24, 2012 at 9:24 pm

    I went to Washington DC in 2006 for a National Youth Leadership Conference (I was a junior in high school). During the week I was there the attendants from my state got to meet our representatives and then walk around to different offices to see if anyone else had time to meet with us.

    Well we got to Ted’s office and asked his secretary if we could get a picture with him, mainly as a gag because I’m from Georgia and our entire group was made up of young conservatives. She walked into his office and was gone for a couple of minutes, came back and said he was busy. It was the Thursday before a holiday weekend so I’m guessing he’d had a few snorts. The funny thing was she offered us autographed pictures of him. We all looked at each other and just turned around and walked away.

1. The difference: Coakley is an amoral hack; Warren can do real damage.

2. Brown alienated the Tea Party after he was elected, so he presumably doesn’t get the grass-roots activism he had in his previous campaign. Personally I wish he hadn’t dropped the TP, but in purely political terms it will prove a bravura move if it succeeds.

3. I’ve never claimed that Bill and his associates are ineffective against Warren, but apparently I misunderestimated how effective they are. My cautious congratulations: there is still a long way to go.

I’m kind of excited by this. I’ve been seeing a lot of Warren stickers at my local Whole Foods near Amherst. Yes, I shop at Whole Foods and drive a Volvo, too.

I think I could put a Brown sticker on my car and it won’t get keyed. I wouldn’t dare put a Romney sticker on it after a bad experience with my Reagan sticker years ago.

    Granny!

    How are things in the “Happy Valley”?

    Just remember – in 1980, there were lines around the building with kids waiting to vote for Reagan. God’s honest truth. The UMass Minuteman Marching Band (yours truly included) marched in his inaugural parade.

    That was the year that everyone showed up for school only to find out that the town had run out of water. The university shut down with a couple hour’s notice – sent everyone home until they could figure out what to do. What a way to start a college career!

      I moved to Amherst in 1970. It took ten years but anti-Reagan hysteria, political indocrination in the school system, and nuclear free zone wackiness changed me from a liberal to a conservative. I well remember those long lines of kids waiting to vote against Reagan. I was standing there with all these long-haired hippies and thought to myself I’m going to give it to them…I’ll vote for Reagan.I never thought he would actually win but never looked back.

      That would have happened anyways but Amherst just made it happen sooner .

      I’m a big UMass hockey fan and sit near a group from the marching band. I think I can wear my Romney t-shirt or Scott Brown t-shirt to the hockey games and still be safe. Hockey fans probably aren’t your average UMass liberals or less so.

        I’ve transplanted to MA and Brown has passed my litmus test for this particular area: a close friend who is also a liberal likes him. I’ll vote for him, and find the opportunity to do so one of the highlights of my move. Warren is little more than a shake-down wanna-be, and I am so tired of her commercials.

        Would that I were in Sean Bielat’s district. Speaking of which, has anyone taken a look at that thing? I think it should be in the dictionary as an illustration of gerrymandering.

Spent the last week in Winthrop,MA, my hometown. I saw two Presidential bumper stickers, one for Obama, one for Romney. Scott Brown was on so many fenders I lost count, good sign.

TrooperJohnSmith | August 24, 2012 at 8:29 pm

Brown has Big Medicine on his side. Heap, Big Medicine.

Warren is messing with ancient, cosmic forces she’s better off leaving dormant.

Watch for this: Elizabeth Warren appearing at a press conference wearing a Mao suit, reciting quotations from his ‘Little Red Book.’ (She might even have Anita Dunn at her side.)

If I were a resident of MA, my position would be ANYONE but Warren. Scott Brown is much better than anyone and hopefully the voters of MA will see it that way too…

Anyone else notice with her hairstyle Lizzy looks like a stubby circumcized male organ wearing glasses? I wonder if her Cherokee mother taught her to sit erect.

It was the harley picture that did it. Most people do not want someone who looks that ridiculous representing them.

Not believing any poll until 1st week of October.

Funny, PPP poll is an outlyer, unless it suits us.

Stop it already.

Occupied Territory | August 24, 2012 at 10:06 pm

That’s where I am. I volunteered for Brown in 2010 and was thrilled he won. He’s disappointed me on occasion–particularly w/ his defence of The One’s unconstitutional recess appointments. But when push comes to shove, comparing him to Warren is no comparison at all. I suffered 47 yrs under Teddy and I ain’t goin’ back!!!

Occupied Territory | August 24, 2012 at 10:07 pm

(the preceeding was supposed to be a reply to GrumpyOne)

I like Scott Brown, I’m a pro-choice, centerist, fiscally conservative independent, and for MA, Brown is a good choice, a million times better than a lying woman like Warren, who apparently is not supported by the Kennedys.
I cannot stand the Kennedys and the “kennedy seat”

We ain’t a monarachy Kennedys!

The #1 Rule of 2012 is: Don’t Get Cocky, Kid! But this is good news.

Note that independents are either the most registered in MA or a very close second. So a lead among them there means a lot more votes than in most states or nationally.

Brown should continue to emphasize his record of public service and that he’s doing what he said he would when he ran. Plus that he will never embarrass them by his behavior or falsely claiming to be something he is not.

Surrogates should continue to pound Warren for her phony resume and the motive for it, her opportunism in running after Obama decided she could not be confirmed by the Senate of her own Party because her views are so extreme, and do we need another lawyer in Congress?

And the leftists will be in shock, they won’t believe it possible that he won. Of course, they will be most shocked about Romney that night, but every grain of salt in their wounds is well deserved.

    Estragon in reply to Estragon. | August 24, 2012 at 11:15 pm

    No offense intended on the lawyer thing, Professor.

    But lawyers have been holding roughly half the seats in Congress for too long. It’s a conflict of interests!

    Imagine if doctors could get together and pass new diseases that everyone would instantly get, and then go home and charge to cure them! Why, they’d be sued or something . . .

      It will be a sorry day when non-lawyers begin passing laws they don’t understand. Wait — they already did. It’s called Obamacare.

      Okay, then it will be a sorry day when non-judges are appointed the Supreme Court. Wait — they already did. Her name is Elana Kagan.

      Okay,okay — then it will be a sorry day when a communist is elected president. Uh-oh.

Theres a new post on American Thinker ; Dems , you better put some ice on it. Pretty well says it all re topic of rape.

[…] you, Legal Insurrection’s William A Jacobson is not one of those people, and neither am I.  We’re both quite aware – even if […]

The karma is so sweet on this one. I don’t live in Massachusetts so I can’t vote for Scott Brown but it would warm my heart to see him win and deprive the Democrats possession of “Ted Kennedy’s seat” for at least 9 full years. Their self-serving (attempted) gaming of the system in changing the rules on how replacement Senators are chosen just keeps biting them in the you-know-what. May the price they pay keep on mounting.

Holy helll! Warren is going to hit the warpath now.

Whew!

After reading those articles, I think I need some oxygen. The writers may all have been men but those were some pretty serious examples of hysteria. Deep breaths will help calm you down.

Also? This quote is from Blue Mass Group:

“The roadmap here is to follow the same path as Sheldon Whitehouse vs. Lincoln Chafee in 2006, another case of taking down a likeable moderate by tying him at every turn to the national party and educating voters about how the Senate as a whole functions…a lesson which hasn’t seemed to sink in with a large enough share of Massachusetts voters yet.”

Keep on insulting the electorate guys…it’s a sure path to victory!

Warren herself seems desperate to lash out on the war on women theme

Warren on the “war path” ?
Keep the “fire water” away from her.

[…] As William Jacobson of the Legal Insurrection blog–which has followed the race closely–notes: […]

[…] Jacobson thinks he knows why. For the first time in their adult lives, the progressive movement is wondering out loud whether […]

Simple: Brown is likable; Warren is not.

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