As I noted with the report on Chile’s Earth Day volcanic spectacular, the prime cause of climate change is Mother Nature.

And while the eco-activists continue to gin-up man-made fear about “climate change”,  it appears that a new study, conducted by Duke University that looked at 1,000 years of temperature records, supports my assertion.  The analysis shows that the climate models, the holy grail of climate change science, are…less than completely accurate.

The study compared its results to the most severe emissions scenarios outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

‘Based on our analysis, a middle-of-the-road warming scenario is more likely, at least for now,’ said Patrick Brown, a doctoral student in climatology at Duke University. ‘But this could change.’

The Duke-led study says that variability is caused by interactions between the ocean and atmosphere, and other natural factors.

They claim these ‘wiggles’ can slow or speed the rate of warming from decade to decade, and exaggerate or offset the effects of increases in greenhouse gas concentrations.

If not properly explained and accounted for, they may skew the reliability of climate models and lead to over-interpretation of short-term temperature trends.

LI #26 Global Warming

Meanwhile, discussions among client scientists have recently included one of the leading religious figures in the world, Pope Francis. The pontiff is slated to give a much anticipated “climate change” encyclical this summer, to the delight of progressives everywhere.

…This is the basis of the moral cause of climate change, and why Francis’ encyclical has the potential to catalyze a great deal of action across the world when it’s issued.

So what is the encyclical likely to say? What is its basis, its foundation? And what right does a pope have to weigh in on what looks, on its surface, like a business and political issue?

For starters, the pope is likely to use his letter to more than 1 billion Catholics to explain the basics of what climate change is in plainspoken language that makes the issue available and relevant to everyone, rich and poor, and explain why we need to care about it.

Given that Francis selected his name for St. Francis of Assisi, who is the patron saint of ecology, a love-the-planet approach is unsurprising to those of us who are Catholic. Pope Francis is expected to use the summer encyclical as the basis for his address before the United Nations in September.

But I suspect this encyclical will make as much difference as the one issued by John Paul II, Evangelium Vitae/The Gospel of Life, which addressed the immorality of murder, directly willed abortion, and euthanasia. I am still waiting to read how vital this encyclical was to world opinion in a progressive publication.

However, Catholics opposed to policy based on the politicized science of “climate change” are preparing to address the fallout from the upcoming papal work.

Samuel Gregg, research director of the conservative Michigan-based Catholic think tank, the Acton Institute for the Study of Religion and Liberty, said he doubts that the pope will weigh in on the science of climate change or on any particular political course of action.

“Individual Catholics—lay people, as well as bishops—have a variety of views on the science of climate change, and as citizens, they’re quite entitled to hold those views,” he said. “It’s not the church’s responsibility, nor does it have the authority to say that Catholics must support this treaty, that treaty, or any treaty. It doesn’t fall into the area of faith and morals. And this is often a distinction not understood outside the Catholic Church, or even by a good number of Catholics themselves.”

…Kishore Jayabalan, director of Acton’s Rome office, already has laid the groundwork for courteous disagreement with Francis. “It is one kind of problem if a Catholic disagrees with papal teaching on the Trinity or abortion; that Catholic’s eternal soul would be considered at risk,” he wrote in a recent blog.

“It is an altogether different kind of problem if a Catholic disagrees with the pope on his diplomatic efforts or environmental views… The Church wisely respects differences of opinion on such matters.”

Leftists are in a tizzy that the dreaded Koch brothers are trying to give Pope Francis a slightly different set of data points:

A US activist group that has received funding from energy companies and the foundation controlled by conservative activist Charles Koch is trying to persuade the Vatican that “there is no global warming crisis” ahead of an environmental statement by Pope Francis this summer that is expected to call for strong action to combat climate change.

The Heartland Institute, a Chicago-based conservative thinktank that seeks to discredit established science on climate change, said it was sending a team of climate scientists to Rome “to inform Pope Francis of the truth about climate science”.

Frankly, if I had an audience with the Pope, I would respectfully ask him to enhance focus on the dangers of Islamic terrorists to Christian faithful and promote warrior saints. A well placed attack, such as at the Vatican, has much more potential to change the global climate than any other man-made activity.