This is just a poll of delegates who will vote on April 21 at the Utah Republican nominating convention, not an actual vote, but if true, it would be an earthquake in UT-04:

In Utah’s newly formed 4th district, things are considerably tight, according to the poll.

Four republicans are vying to fill the seat, including Carl Wimmer, Mia Love, Steven Sandstrom and Jay Cobb.

The poll shows Love with a 13-point lead among delegates over her nearest challenger Carl Wimmer, who came in with 25%, Sandstrom with 18% and Cobb with less than 10%.

Some local analysis:

Mia Love is ahead in the delegate count in the much-contested GOP  4th Congressional District race.

This may be a surprise to rank-and-file Republican voters,  said Jones, because former state Rep. Carl Wimmer does much better in public  surveys of GOP voters in general.

The Saratoga Springs female mayor is not well-known  outside of her small Utah County town, but she is well-known and liked among GOP  delegates, said Jones.

Love gets 38 percent of the 1,000 GOP delegate vote in the  4th District, the new poll shows.

If this holds, it means that there would be a primary between Love and Wimmer, since a primary is avoided only if a candidate gets 60% of the delegates.

This is an earthquake because Wimmer was the odds on favorite by a wide margin just two months ago, and he picked up the endorsements of the Mike Lee, Club for Growth, and many Utah Republican politicians.

I’m not counting any chickens yet, but, remember you heard it here first.

 
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