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Wow, Mia B. Love leading in poll of Utah delegates

Wow, Mia B. Love leading in poll of Utah delegates

This is just a poll of delegates who will vote on April 21 at the Utah Republican nominating convention, not an actual vote, but if true, it would be an earthquake in UT-04:

In Utah’s newly formed 4th district, things are considerably tight, according to the poll.

Four republicans are vying to fill the seat, including Carl Wimmer, Mia Love, Steven Sandstrom and Jay Cobb.

The poll shows Love with a 13-point lead among delegates over her nearest challenger Carl Wimmer, who came in with 25%, Sandstrom with 18% and Cobb with less than 10%.

Some local analysis:

Mia Love is ahead in the delegate count in the much-contested GOP  4th Congressional District race.

This may be a surprise to rank-and-file Republican voters,  said Jones, because former state Rep. Carl Wimmer does much better in public  surveys of GOP voters in general.

The Saratoga Springs female mayor is not well-known  outside of her small Utah County town, but she is well-known and liked among GOP  delegates, said Jones.

Love gets 38 percent of the 1,000 GOP delegate vote in the  4th District, the new poll shows.

If this holds, it means that there would be a primary between Love and Wimmer, since a primary is avoided only if a candidate gets 60% of the delegates.

This is an earthquake because Wimmer was the odds on favorite by a wide margin just two months ago, and he picked up the endorsements of the Mike Lee, Club for Growth, and many Utah Republican politicians.

I’m not counting any chickens yet, but, remember you heard it here first.

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Comments

And people think the Tea Party is dead.
heh heh heh.

Guess it’s too late to send more money now, but will send some for the runoff. Please keep us posted, Professor.

I don’t get too excited over these “tea party” candidates anymore.

They sound great, get elected, then get swallowed whole by the establishment.

Col. West not withstanding….

    Tamminator in reply to Browndog. | April 18, 2012 at 2:18 pm

    What would you prefer, Browndog? More people like John McCain?
    Changing Congress takes time and patience.
    We took over the House.
    Next step, the Senate.

      Browndog in reply to Tamminator. | April 18, 2012 at 2:56 pm

      I prefer substance and results over rhetoric and labels.

      That’s all.

      No offense to Ms. Love…I don’t know her.

LukeHandCool | April 18, 2012 at 1:13 pm

I can almost hear Chuck Berry singing “Mia B. Love” at the victory party.

1. Instapundit swooned over Love:

Mia Love: Could She Be The Smartest Congressional Tea Party Candidate? Her favorite economist is Bastiat.

Ooh, Bastiat! Back to this later.

2. PJM’s Bryan Preston is more skeptical. I posted a couple of comments at the link.

3. It could be just me, but this group photo with Love opponent Carl Wimmer in the middle is kinda creepy.

4. Back in 2008, Wimmer spoke highly of Bastiat.

Maybe both Wimmer and Love both have read widely and thought deeply and independently arrived at an admiration of Bastiat. Maybe.

5. As a libertarian, I am akeptical of candidates with an authoritarian hue, but the remarkable coincidence wrt Bastiat strikes me as a comparison of Love and Wimmer wherein Wimmer shows to advantage.

    gs in reply to gs. | April 18, 2012 at 2:45 pm

    6. Regarding the video in Bill’s first Love post, I commented that Love said ‘you know’ fourteen times. That mannerism is gone in the Instapundit interview I linked above. Love is improving as a retail politician.

    If she forces a runoff with Wimmer, it will be a step up for her whether or not she wins.

She’s a sharp woman with a future, no matter what happens in the primary, as gs notes above.

Wimmer really needed to lock the thing up at convention – not that he won’t be the favorite in the primary, but it’s more than just expensive, it is fraught with risk against a rapidly rising star like Love.

    Good point about the expense of a primary. The Republican nominee will need every penny for the general election.

    Congressman Jim Matheson, who has been a Representative since 2000, is running for the seat. A Democrat in Utah who withstood the GOP surges of 2002 and 2010 must be a formidable politician.

    Bill is entirely correct not to count any chickens yet.

    (But if Love pulls off the double upset…wow!)

I usually just trust the Club For Growth to pick candidates for me, so when I saw that they’d endorsed Wimmer I asked them why. This is the response I got:

Regarding the UT-04 race, we endorsed Wimmer rather early, but we were also fully aware of Love. We have deep concerns about her support for tax increases on the city council and her overall record. Second, Wimmer’s record in the state legislature in opposition to the Governor and leadership was nothing short of spectacular. He will be an excellent advocate for economic issues if he is elected.

    William A. Jacobson in reply to Milhouse. | April 19, 2012 at 10:11 am

    The “support for tax increases” meme is misleading. Take a look at this Salt Lake Tribune article which provides balanced background, including the problems she encountered as new Mayor in a city which was growing rapidly but entirely dependent on building permit revenue, and the deep cuts she instituted, http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/politics/53442370-90/budget-building-council-love.html.csp

    While property taxes were raised, it only was because the city depended almost entirely on building permit revenue previously, which collapsed with housing. Love instituted massive budget cuts, eliminating entire departments, and the property taxes now are in the middle of the pack for similarly sized cities — so what she did was realign how the city raised revenue. The city budget has grown over time, but only because the city has grown.

sevenechomike | April 19, 2012 at 3:05 am

In addition to Mia Loves support for tax increases she has admitted to multiple discrepancies with her FEC filings and she was recently caught on tape exposing complete ignorance of the insider trading issues with Congress. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w9o3MV9h0iw
Conversely, Carl Wimmer has been a proven conservative leader that has proven himself as a founder of the Patrick Henry Caucus and the sponsor of the key legislation that gave all 26 states “standing” in the case against Obamacare. We need his vision and leadership in Washington.

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