Poll Analyst Nate Silver Gets Flamed on Twitter/X for Downplaying New York City Crime
“NYC has a considerably lower crime rate than most large American cities.”
Liberal poll analyst Nate Silver decided that yesterday was a good time to publish a tweet downplaying crime in New York City. It was a bad idea.
The city is reeling over the recent execution-style murder of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson by Luigi Mangione, who was arraigned in a NYC court this week, and the murder of a woman by an illegal alien who allegedly set her on fire on the subway.
See Silver’s tweet below:
NYC has a considerably lower crime rate than most large American cities. It's also a city of 8+ million where lots of crazy shit happens on a daily basis. I don't blame anyone for being concerned but it's sort of a test for whether you think in terms of narratives or base rates.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) December 23, 2024
Here are some reactions:
"Sorry ma'am, your daughter was burned alive on a subway train by a maniac freely roaming the city, and while we understand your outrage – it shouldn't reflect poorly on the city's base rate of violence. Have a great day." https://t.co/mDEGYXXA60
— GregGutfeld (@greggutfeld) December 24, 2024
This is why data-brain will kill your society
"Fewer people die in terror attacks than car accidents every year so muslim immigrants stabbing a few kids in a park is no big deal" -style reasoning
The correct number of immigrants lighting women on fire is zero https://t.co/dKHkwrbY9f
— Auron MacIntyre (@AuronMacintyre) December 23, 2024
How many people should we expect to be set on fire while riding the subway in any given year? https://t.co/mHTWyWS4Rc
— Jeremy Redfern (@JeremyRedfernFL) December 24, 2024
They don’t arrest for any number of crimes other jurisdictions do. The crime stats for NYC are garbage. On purpose. Can’t measure what you don’t track. And zero people should be set on fire by illegal immigrants already deported once. https://t.co/nuxU7GUBxK
— Stacey (@ScotsFyre) December 24, 2024
An illegal alien burned a woman alive on the F train while people videoed and a cop sauntered by but AKSHYUALLY the majority of riders complete their journey without a hitch …. https://t.co/xXBUdI38Bw
— James Morrow (@pwafork) December 24, 2024
What a wildly retarded take.
Toothpaste is locked up in our convenience stores, and ladies are being lit on fire on our public transit. Our grandfathers didn’t grow up in this America.
Stop the “but muh data” gaslighting. Migrants and criminal animals are running rampant. https://t.co/C4CVzm8f9u
— Petronius Arbiter (@soulofpetronius) December 23, 2024
https://t.co/FvIgHaSrdh pic.twitter.com/WPtK3NtcjN
— Premo Ottinger (@forager23) December 23, 2024
Even the liberal journal The Atlantic is admitting that New York City has a problem:
New York City Has Lost Control of Crime
It was like something out of the horrors of New York City’s past. At 7:30 yesterday morning, a man approached a woman sleeping on a Coney Island F train. The man proceeded to light the woman on fire, according to police, and then calmly watched her burn to death as transit police attempted to extinguish the flames.
A suspect has been taken into custody. But the killing marks a gruesome milestone—11 murders in New York’s subways in 2024, the highest figure in decades. It adds to the pervasive sense of unease on many people’s daily commutes. Transit statistics show that other kinds of violent crime, too, have risen on a per-rider basis, leaving millions of New Yorkers worrying about whether they will be next.
What Silver did in that tweet is the same as Democrats and the media insisting that the Biden economy is great while people struggle financially under inflation. You can’t lie to people about what they can see with their own eyes.
New York City has a crime problem.
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Same crap they did with the economy,
‘Stop complaining about your grocery bill, peasant. Look at this shiny chart that says AKSHUALLY the economy is doing great!’
“Stop the “but muh data” gaslighting. Migrants and criminal animals are running rampant.”
Throwing a million out is not anywhere near enough. Crowd source illegal removals
Is that why the South needed anti-crowdsourcing laws in the ’40s?
So this guy is driving in the desert when his car breaks down. He gets out and began looking for help. He can’t find any and passes out of heat stroke. But he survives and a snake stared him right in the eyes. ‘AHHHHH!!!’ He screamed. ‘Hello’ said the snake ‘My name is Nate and I am a magical snake’. Nate bites the guy and all of a sudden, he feels better. ‘I’m Jack by the way’ he says.
They talk for a while until Jack said,’That pole your coiled around looks like a lever.’ ‘It is’ Nate replies. ‘What does it do?’ Jack asked. ‘Destroys humanity’. ‘Come on’ Jack chuckled, ‘what does it actually do?’ ‘I’m not lying, it does destroy humanity. This place used to be the Garden of Eden and God placed it here incase the human race fell outta whack.’ Nate replied
Jack stayed for a while longer but eventually he asks Nate where the nearest town is. Nate directed Jack to the town and he found a tow truck to tow back his broken car.
A few weeks later Jack decides to go visit Nate. As he drove over the final sand dune he realised he was heading directly towards the lever that destroys humanity. He tries to turn but there isn’t enough traction. He guesses that if he veers enough, he might just be able to avoid hitting the lever. He veers left as hard as he can but soon realises that Nate is lying there. There isn’t enough time to turn the other way so he runs over Nate.
As he runs over Nate, he exclaims ‘BETTER NATE THEN LEVER’
Go to your room.
I *should* complain about this being off-topic but I was so welcome as a relief from the serious discussions.
But don’t you dare look at stats when talking about gun control. Or abortion.
We need gun control laws that violate the rights of millions if it’ll save just one life. And we need to murder hundreds of thousands of babies a year because a fraction of a percent of those abortion may help the “mother’s” health.
This cannot continue…thus the flood.
Deportation will be wild!
So we have 40-50 million illegals, 1 million to be expelled, a 2% or so. Is that risk enough to get others to flee on their own?
Sure when you consider how the deportation goes down. They ID Shamus O’Mally (the Irish guy who overstayed his student visa) as being employed down at the meat packing plant. They go to the plant where he works and figure out a whole bunch of other illegal aliens are working there as well. They take them all and eventually deport them.
Same thing when they instead go to an apartment or a house looking for Mr O’Mally and discover it to be full of other illegal aliens. Employers will stop hiring them b/c they don’t want the hassle or the risk. There’s only so many under the table jobs out there and many are consolidated into a few industries. Show up and start running folks for warrants while running the IDs. Fake SSA numbers? Unpaid taxes or employer paid unemployment insurance? Potential for civil asset forfeiture?
NYC did a great job of reducing crime when Giuliani and Bloomberg were mayors. Under their administrations, NYC’s crime rates compared very well with crime rates in other cities. Unfortunately, Mayor Bill De Blasio, a.k.a. Warren Wilhelm, began to unravel some of those accomplishments in order to bring greater “equity” to NYC’s law enforcement.
An appropriate question for Nate Silver is: how do murders in the subway system in recent years compare with subway murders just before Bill De Blasio became mayor?
Answer: not good: NY Post (Oct 12,2022): Killings in NYC subway system skyrocket to highest level in 25 years — even as ridership plummeted
At the time of the article in October 2022, there had been 8 subway murders in 2022, which increased to 10 by the end of the year.
NY Post (Sept 14,2024): Murders soar 60% on NYC subways, nearing record. As of Sept. 14, there were 8 murders. We know, with the subway fire-murder, there have been at least 9 for 2024. The record of 10 was in 2022.
Note the number of people interviewed in the 2024 article who did not feel safe on the subways. Does Nate Silver take the subway on a regular basis? 🙂
Transit police did no such thing. The Atlantic can’t help itself but lie. I think the magazine would be embarrassed if it publishes any sentence without some insane lie in it.
NYC, San Fransisco, LA, Chicago, New Orleans, etc., are all the culmination of the left’s philosophy. Those cities represent everything they wish for the rest of the country. Those were once the great cities of the US that were proudly displayed to the world of the promise of America. They are now third-world cities that no one wants to live in. Why is it that they cannot see what they have done? What does the left hold up and say, “Look what we have created with our ideas”? Their no-bail laws, their transgender policies, their no-border policy, equity for all instead of opportunity for all. There are many more of their failed policies like defunding the police that are miserable failures but they persist. Why?
There is none so blind as he who will not see.
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Hard to fault people not intervening; they saw what happened to Penny.
Sure, overall crime in NYC *is* low. But when you consider you need $100k/yr there just to be poor, and there’s a cop for approximately every city block, it ought to be.
Nate forecast kamala would win electoral college by one vote.
lol
He also said Hildabeast had a 70% chance of winning three days before the 2016 election.
I’ve written that in many comment sections to remind folks – but mostly the blog authors – that Silver is a leftist doofus. Yet authors continue to cite him as authoritative.
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