Something Brewing in the Northwest? Washington GOP Sen. Candidate Tiffany Smiley Polling Close to Democrat Murray
“Per the poll, 48.7% indicated they would vote for Murray, with 46.5% voting for Smiley. Those who were undecided made up 4.8%.”
Something seems to be happening in the northwest. Republican Christine Drazan is surging in the governor race in Oregon. In Washington State, Republican senate candidate Tiffany Smiley is pulling within striking distance of Democrat incumbent Patty Murray, according to one poll.
Races in this region are not typically this close.
Brett Davis reports at the Center Square:
New poll shows Washington races for SOS office, U.S. Senate narrowing
The latest poll from Atlanta, Georgia-based Trafalgar Group shows a tightening of races for secretary of state and the U.S. Senate in Washington state.
According to the poll of 1,091 likely general election voters conducted between Sept. 21 and Sept. 24, 40.4% of voters said they would vote for Democratic incumbent Steve Hobbs in the special election for secretary of state, while 36.8% would vote for his nonpartisan opponent, Pierce County Julie Anderson. Undecided voters made up 22.8% of those polled…
The Trafalgar poll also shows Republican challenger Tiffany Smiley gaining a little on incumbent U.S. Sen. Patty Murray, D-Bothell, trailing by only 2.2 percentage points.
Per the poll, 48.7% indicated they would vote for Murray, with 46.5% voting for Smiley. Those who were undecided made up 4.8%.
A poll by Trafalgar earlier in the month had Murray up by 2.9 percentage points. In that poll, Murray got 49.2% of the vote, Smiley got 46.3%, and 4.5% said they were undecided.
See the graphic below:
New @trafalgar_group
#WASen #Poll (9/21-9/24) shows incumbent #Murray still holding small lead, but challenger #Smiley gaining. #wapol48.7% @MurrayCampaign
46.5% @SmileyForWA
4.8% UndSee Report: https://t.co/Vafee0lWPg pic.twitter.com/fu00kjizZR
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 26, 2022
Robert Cahaly is also predicting huge Republican turnout.
Republican turnout will exceed even what we predict: Robert Cahaly https://t.co/JER5WwNeOk #FoxNews
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 25, 2022
From FOX News:
ROBERT CAHALY: We would just ask people, you know, how do you think your neighbors are voting? It’s a projection device, and it would allow people to explain that, yes, maybe I’m for Hillary, but my neighbors are all for Trump, and it let them say they were for Trump without being judged.
This year, our fear is that people are not going to be polled that are Trump supporters because all that Biden has said, and all the apparent attacks, and people coming after them and they’re just hesitant even to participate. I think everybody will underestimate them, including us. Republican turnout will exceed even what we predict.
Watch the clip below:
Pollster @RobertCahaly from @trafalgar_group to @dbongino on polls underreporting GOP support (again) due to social pressure:
"I think everybody will underestimate them, including us. Republican turnout will exceed even what we predict." pic.twitter.com/UZzaWAvBWJ
— Scott Morefield (@SKMorefield) September 25, 2022
Conservatives probably won’t get their hopes too high, but if Republicans pull out a win in one or both of these races, it will be a political earthquake.
Featured image via YouTube.
DONATE
Donations tax deductible
to the full extent allowed by law.
Comments
Murray well past her sell buy date. She has only one issue, abortion, and she sells with fear. Sadly, there are many just like her, guilt ridden white progressive women in comfortable settings that are out of touch with average people and reality. Hopefully, she will be removed from the shelves.
Even Washington State Dems think she is well past her sell by date, and should have stood aside.
While I wish her gone, I’m sure that King County will find sufficient votes to get her over the top.
Maybe I’m missing it, but if they are reporting a 2.2% separation between the Senate candidates, would not the Margin of Error be germane?
Also, noting in passing that one can be sure that in a Democrat area there will be election fraud. Sure wish we had a measure of Margin of Fraud.
Subotai Bahadur
Good points. This is why Republicans have long said that we need to win by such huge numbers that the fraud we all know happens in these Democrat areas is swamped by real votes. This was a huge topic of conversation among Scott Brown supporters in MA back in 2010 because there was a lot of concern that the commonwealth’s conservatives–and there are many outside Boston, the Cape, and the Berkshires–would sit it out (as they do most elections) thinking that their guy could never win. Somehow he did!
Not to mention the even bigger margin of fuck-you-pollster, which I suspect is the one that is going to win a whole lot of races for us.
Patty Murray is like the Rosa DeLauro of the west: they are both horrible little troll women better suited to living under bridges and devouring children passing overhead…
They’ve got state-wide cheat-by-mail there, don’t get your hopes up.
I was under the impression that the r party in WA or at least members with outside help were pushing pretty hard for ballot security and the SoS was being obstinate. Suits filed, hearings held and a fuss being raised. Hopefully that is enough to at least deter the more egregious forms of shenanigans by indicating that someone is actually paying attention.
WA had had GOP secretaries of state since at least the 70s, until the incumbent recently resigned despite several years remaining in her term, to go, of all places, to DC to work in the Biden administration.
Bucking tradition, Gov. Inslee appointed a Democrat to fill out her term. We have had all mail-in voting for years now, and I have not seen any news about any ballot security measures or the like; we do have official drop boxes for ballots, one at my local city hall, for example, but I do not believe any great amount of security is provided. Ours may have cameras, as it is at the entrance to City Hall which also houses the police department.
The key is the outside envelope must bear both the date the ballot is being completed and the voter’s own signature which, theoretically, must match the signature on file. Once that hurdle is passed, though, the inside security envelope containing the actual ballot is separated from the envelope with the signature. Fraud around lax or missing verification of signatures is quite possible unless there are enough watchers in the processing offices to keep things honest. But once separation between outside and inside envelopes has taken place, there is no way to verify the bona fides of any ballot. That was why the challenge to the 2004 gubernatorial result was unsuccessful — no way to identify fraudulent ballots, such as those found after hours in some King County election workers’ car trunk. Really need a GOP landslide to get beyond the margin of fraud.
Thanks for that. I had read that a group in Skagit County was still pushing. My previous impression of WA State by mail voting had that it was the ‘what I ordered’ portion of the meme while the States using Rona to adopt emergency mail in ballots were the ‘what I received’ portion. IOW that they had a pretty good system as long as the ballot integrity measures were followed.
If she loses, she can always get a job as a door stop.
I’ve heard that Murray is one of the dumbest members of the Senate. Her oratory hasn’t proved that wrong. We can only hope.
Yes, she gets a lot of sympathy votes.
Dunno. A close contest between Murray and Oregon’s Merkley.
When Murray first ran she played on the “mom in tennis shoes” schtick – she was Wendy Davis before Wendy Davis was Wendy Davis. If only Murray had tanked as badly as Davis. Sadly, we ain’t TX proud in WA state.
Patty Murray is dumber than a bag of hair.
She’s right up there with Spartacus in the competition for dumbest person to ever disgrace the US Senate.
Just ask T-Bone.
My favorite was when she claimed Osama bin Laden was popular in the Middle East because he built daycare centers. Is it possible to be beyond totally clueless? Apparently.
I was in deep blue West Seattle less than one month ago…There were Tiffany Smiley signs everywhere. I didn’t know she was a Republican until I came home and found out who she was running against.
West Seattle wasn’t always deep blue … down around Alki point maybe – but lots of working class folks there working in ship yards and for Boeing at Plant 2.
I saw the same in Kirkland/Redmond/Bothell a few weeks ago. I’m not sure what to make of it though. What I find a little more interesting is that there are less signs up generally for the time of year.
No one wants to publicize who they are voting for?
It’s deep blue big time now…lot’s of gentrifying has taken place.