Averaging turnout models over the last four 2-year cycles, gets different results in the polling than the doom being peddled by Operation Demoralize.
I don’t know if it’s right or wrong, but given that Operation Demoralize is in full swing, anything that keeps spirits up for the final push through the finish line is a good thing:
At this point, nothing less than an all-out final push is acceptable. The polls don’t matter. Even if we are ahead, push. Even if we are behind, push.
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http://www.pjtv.com/?cmd=mpg&mpid=105&load=7641
The Trifecta guys all predict Romney 300+.
I agree with that, though the states may vary from their calls.
Sea-change election…flushing the Obamic Decline.
Then, we need to CONTINUE to be militant, pushing the reformation that we need…REGARDLESS of who our representatives are.
Nate Silver doubles down again…
Let’s prove Silver wrong.
The less professional polls that are contracted to state parties or to news organizations – which pay for a desired outcome – are at this pint merely trying to game RealClearPolitics to discourage day-of voters.
That’s the last gasp tactic to try to rescue this election since Republican strategy includes significant day-of voting while Democrat strategy has always favored GOTV efforts to encourage early voting.
It won’t work.
Im trying new tactics to torment my liberal friends. Little phrases/brief talking points to send them to the valium container.
Things like *”what do you make of Obama’s 16% drop in white republican turnout in 2008 evaporating?”
*What is this Penn Pivot I keep reading about? The one that signaled a Reagan victory.
*I heard Obama turnout was really going to suffer because of Sandy and thats why Obama was campaigning with a winner like Christie.
As always Im always ready to help Democrats feel demoralized.
My only quibble with that video:
O’Reilly: Can a pollster assume that all Democrats and all Republicans are going to vote for whoever is running in their party? Can you assume that with certainty?
Morris answers affirmatively.
I would say there will be crossover voting and of that voting the vast majority will be for Dems who voted for Obama in 2008 now voting for Romney.
I can assume that with certainty given Obama’s record.
“My only quibble with that video:”
My quibble was O’Reilly. I could only take half the vid and had to turn it off. I didn’t think O’Reilly could get more obnoxious but he proved me wrong.
Bill O’R. sez: “HEY! It’s always all about me, all the time! Get with the program!”
I agree! He’s so, “But enough about me. What about you? What do YOU think about me?”
yeah, so many of these polls predict the same or even better turnout for Obama than 2008. It has never been more obvious that they are rigging the results, and the internet has made it more difficult for major media to control the message.
The left will lie constantly, but light dispels darkness. There is no time to rest before next Tuesday night. The bigger the win, the more powerful the mandate. 2010 all over again.
Push! Push!
Is that Maureen Dowd?
What Obama saw when he flew over New Jersey yesterday…
Sign of another storm coming.
That goes well beyond being a “broken glass Republican”.
Here’s an interesting explanation for the differences among the polls. The ones that are trending more for Obama all seem to use a looser screens to determine who is likely to vote. People always lie about this, which is why those organizations that do political polling on a daily basis such as Gallup and Rasmussen will ask not only is a person going to vote but also questions such as where they vote or who did they voted for last time. Bias may play a roll as many of these polls are paid for by media outlets but cost is also a big factor. Tighter screens = more calls to be made to reach the target sample size.
http://www.bobkrumm.com/blog/?p=2449
Woody Hays, while coaching at Ohio State, beat Michgan one year by over 30 points. On the final touchdown, he went for two points. When asked by the press after the game why he went for two points with such a massive lead, he replied, “Because I couldn’t go for three.”
That needs to be our attitude. ..bruce w..
We need to push now and after the election, regardless of who is elected. If it is Romney, then we need to simultaneously support and hold him accountable to his stated principles and positions. The only difference between Romney and Obama in this respect, is that the latter has demonstrated a conflict with individual and American interests, which means holding him accountable will be predictably more challenging.
Is one point up in OH enough to compensate for the fraud?
Well, that’s the whole problem with polls, isn’t it? Due to subjective influences, one cannot tell which polls are accurate and logic dictates that they might all be wrong, so the ‘one point up’ might be irrelevant if Romney is actually three, four, or five points up.
Just came home from a meeting with a) my Republican Congressman, b) my Republican State Senator, c) the Colorado State Republican Party Chairman, d) our County Republican Chairwoman, and a few candidates. No, it was not a private meeting; there was a crowd of Republicans.
The Democrats around here are demoralized. We have 13 polling places in my county [combining precincts]. Each requires an election judge from each party. Poll watchers are optional. Volunteers mostly come from the Spring precinct caucuses. All names are certified by the County Clerk and furnished to the opposite party the week before the election.
From the precinct caucuses alone, we have enough election judges certified and trained to run multiple shifts through the day at each polling place [so they don’t have to stay the full 12 hours plus prep times and securing the ballots afterwards. The Democrats got 4 [four] volunteers to be election judges. Because it is required, our Republican County Clerk had to go through the list of former Democrat election judges, and call and cajole them to get 13.
We have poll watchers, working shifts, at each polling place. The Democrats have 1 [one] certified poll watcher for the entire county.
Here in Colorado, if the Democrats are going to win the state; they have to take their strongholds of Boulder, Denver, and Pueblo Counties overwhelmingly. Plus then do very well in Jefferson, Adams, and Weld Counties.
In Pueblo County, the major newspaper has switched to endorsing Republicans this cycle [including going against a Democrat dynasty family], AND their Democrat early voting and absentee ballot return numbers are not only below 2008, they are well below 2010.
In rural Colorado, one of the things we do is go to major road intersections with groups of supporters and campaign signs, wave at drivers and they honk if they support the candidates. Low tech, but good for morale. I have not seen any Democrat groups doing it this campaign. Between the Republicans and the weekly TEA Party GOTV rallies; we do it at least twice a week.
They announced that for the rest of the campaign, my county Republican party is sending groups to wave signs … in the middle of the Democrat stronghold of Pueblo. Every day. Just to demoralize them.
The polls say we are a toss-up state. “Toss up” my dulcet gluteal musculature. I was one of the three crazies who ran the 1988 Bush campaign in my county. We thumped the Democrats then, here and statewide. This feels stronger than 1988. Absent massive Democrat election fraud [always a factor], count our electoral votes for Romney.
Subotai Bahadur
In 2008 Obama got 53% of the vote in a year of unprecedented black and college aged turnout. The far left was 100% behind him. He dominated the women’s vote. He ran extremely well in the suburbs. He got a large libertarian vote. He even got a good percentage of Republicans who saw electing the first black president as a good thing.
Starting with the Republicans, Obama still has Colin Powell and maybe David Frum. BFD. Liberaltarianism has been a complete bust. Libertarians who absolutely refuse to vote Romney will have Johnson but I expect them to be few in number. A poor job market, high energy prices and particularly the corrupt, race baiting Chicago Way has diminished suburban support. The War Against Women theme has flopped because most women do not see themselves as the mere sum of their lady parts. Camille Paglia is openly going Green Party and she will be joined by others on the far left. That leaves young voters and blacks, both groups of which seem decidedly less enthused than in 2008.
On top of it all, Obama has managed to tick off a lot of Catholics, evangelicals and Jews. This site has noted Obama’s Jewish problem. Catholics represent about 24% of the population. They gave Obama 54% of their vote in 2008. That isn’t going to happen this year, not with the US Catholic Conference of Bishops entering the election in a way I have never seen before. So far I have received three copies of the USCCB guide to casting an informed vote plus several sermons on how being on the wrong side of the pro life issues and the free exercise of religion disqualifies a candidate from consideration. Many evangelicals sat out 2008 because they disliked McCain and didn’t trust Obama. This article shows they are as fired up as the Catholic Bishops.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203707604578090962267200892.html?KEYWORDS=daniel+henninger
As far as I can tell there is only one group who is almost as fired up for Obama today as they were in 2008- mainstream journalists.
The biggest reason to keep pushing even if it seems Romney and the GOP will win big is obvious. The left has pretty much shown their cards. They have been crying voter suppression for a while. Already many in the media who are overtly helping Obama have started to opine about how Sandy will effect voting turnout in heavily Democratic regions.
The larger the margins the less credible all this nonsense will be post election. 300+ electoral votes is just a start….
So motivated here, and doing all I can to support Conservative candidates and get out the vote! Even helped with True the Vote! Phone calls, social media, talking to friends, email, blog comments – the works! So I am not letting the MSM “operation demoralize” take me or anyone I come in contact with down.
Now – regarding that video: this is EXACTLY why I don’t watch O’Reilly!! His bombastic, interrupting, snarky manner with Dick Morris was ATROCIOUS! Even though his ratings are high (I personally think it’s the time slot), he stinks, IMHO, at letting ANYONE talk! Even Hannity isn’t that interrupt-driven; you would have to go to a liberal leftie to get even close. (All IMHO, of course.)
O’Reilly is for O’Reilly. Period. He goes overboard showing how Fair And Balanced he is. He also treats most guests as props, there only to help show how Fair And Balanced O’Reilly is.
FOX News is #1, and 8 pm is the prime slot. You are right – that is why he’s been on top so long. Personally, he grates me like nails on a chalkboard, I have zero interest in what he has to say, and I rarely watch.
I agree with everything you said except: “He goes overboard showing how Fair And Balanced he is.” Bill O’nly seems to go overboard that way with conservatives/Republicans.
On balance, he’s a whole lot nicer to Dems. He had to admit it in early 2011, after roasting a couple of Republicans in late December 2010 for no good reason. Of course, the Omniscient O’Reilly didn’t apologize; that would be beneath him. Over a flap about mistreating Republicans, yet.
Let me repeat the three keys to success this election season: GOTV, GOTV, GOTV! Of course,that rule only applies to conservatives voters. But, then that three key formula applies to not elections held on November 6th, but any national election held on any date. 🙂
You got it. Turnout is everything. What value a pre-election poll showing you up 20 points if your supporters don’t vote?
In 2010 the people voiced a very loud and clear Oh HELL No to the Democrats, motivated almost entirely by detestation of Obama and his policies, which hurt the entire Democrat ticket. Well, it’s not 2010 anymore, it’s 2012, I’m told by pundits, but this time, unlike 2010, Obama himself is on the ticket and I suspect the people will be voting real loud and clear again.
Let’s just hope that the widespread reports of voting machine — ahem — malfunctions (but ALWAYS in Obama’s favor) don’t steal this from us.
Words cannot begin to express my loathing and contempt for the Democrats.