for splitting the vote between Eric Hovde and Mark Neumann, allowing Thompson to win the primary with under 40% of the vote.
I have a bad feeling about this, via Althouse:
Thompson was up 9 points in the polls a month ago, and now he’s down 9 points. It’s useless to fret about whether the Marquette poll is accurate: How inaccurate can it be? How did it happen? Tammy Baldwin ran negative ads against the once presumptively popular Tommy Thompson, and they obviously worked….
Tommy must have been thinking that he could cruise to victory, but the old man is getting kicked around.
Remember, this was a race which most commentators considered a likely Republican pick up, and the foundation of regaining control of the Senate.
A different poll has the race tied, but really. Someone needs to light a fire here.
But it doesn’t seem likely, as Thompson is blaming Romney for Thompson’s sinking numbers:
“The presidential thing is bound to have an impact on every election,” Thompson told Madison television station WKOW on Wednesday. “You know, whether you’re a Democrat or Republican. If you’re a standard-bearer for the presidency is not doing well, it’s going to reflect on the down ballot.”
Scott Walker, I know you don’t run Thompson’s Senate campaign, but please pull him aside and talk some sense into his campaign operation. Put your own people in there. Do something.
I think I’m going to scream and kick something.
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Comments
No one actually believes the latest Marquette poll.
Just so.
Althouse: “How inaccurate can it be?” is the sort of credulity the scammers bank on.
There is no way Tommy is down by 9. No way. He may lose, but if the margin is more than 2% against him I’ll be surprised. No way to know if Hovde or Neuman would have done better. There is a pattern developing though: any time Neuman gets involved things get fouled up. He is a three time loser and should give it up.
The Marquette poll oversamples Democrats by nearly 8 points and has independents (which are really democrats in this poll as evidenced by the lean question) going to Obama by nearly 20pts. No election exit poll ever showed independents going to the dem by more than 10pts, EXCEPT 2008. In all recent elections, the independents in 2010 and the recall gave the Republicans a ten percent vote margin.
In the 2004 election, the exit polls showed Wisconsin with a Democrat/Republican/Independent (DRI) of 35/38/27 and 2008 with a DRI of 39/33/29, but Marquette thinks THIS election will be a DRI of 34/26/38.
They are right about the Democrat category, but WAY WAY off on the Republican category and Independent category. They think that the Republican turnout WILL BE THE LOWEST EVER TURNOUT in the last twelve years after four years of Hope and Change and that the independents will turnout at the HIGHEST ever turnout? And they will vote for Democrats by 20% more than Republicans, please. They are discounting the recall election and 2010 elections where independents voted for Republicans nearly 10% more than Democrats.
According to Marquette 2012 will be the BEST DEMOCRAT YEAR EVAH!!!11one!!!
In addition, they also oversampled blacks by 1%, latinos by 1%, and added an “other race” which includes Asians and all other categories at 5% (which just so happens to vote for Obama/Baldwin at 60%+ margins).
The recall exit poll in JUNE OF THIS YEAR had it at
White 91%
Black 5%
Latino 3%
Asian 1%
Other 1%
This poll says that: contrary to all recent elections, Wisconsin now has 16% minority population with only 84% white. In every recent election minorities counted for 10% of the population while 2008 was massive increase of 1%. This election is going to have an increase of +6%, according to Marquette. Huh.
And we are wrong to wonder about poll bias?
“The presidential thing is bound to have an impact on every election,” Thompson told Madison television station WKOW on Wednesday. “You know, whether you’re a Democrat or Republican. If you’re a standard-bearer for the presidency is not doing well, it’s going to reflect on the down ballot.”
Pathetic. Take responsibility and fight. In these days of Leftist depredation and failure, you have NO EXCUSE.
Context, please. It matters. For instance: what question was he asked?
Yeah, a number of Senate races look odd. WI is one, also IN, even Akin in MO one would expect to make gains as the hubbub subsides.
In November we’ll find out: were the media and the pollsters right? Or did the ’10 midterms, the WI recall election and Chick-fil-A buycott provide better foreshadowing?
I’ll go with “Obama loses in blowout, Dem party’s future questioned” but hey, time will tell.
And in the end, does it matter? Is there anyone here who plans to give in and embrace BigGov and CronyCapitalism? Regardless of the outcome of an election.
My path is laid, I bet yours is, too.
I think it matters.
Obamacare, when fully implemented, will destroy America. Unless we win the White House both houses of congress it will be implemented.
Sure, the election is a big deal.
But will it make an iota of a difference in your personal beliefs? Your personal commitment to our children’s future?
Will you give up and give in, or are you persistent? (Not you personally, everyone who feels like us)
I agree about ObamaCare but the GOP loves ObamaCare. They may give a few sound bites to the contrary here and there but their actions are clear. In Nov. 2010 we gave them the people to stop funding it and they told us to drop dead. Even in the past week the GOP voted to continue funding for it. Tommy Thompson campaigns that he’s against ObamaCare but he worked with numerous companies that strongly advocated it after leaving George Bush. Thompson’s presence at this moment is just to block us from getting the kind of person we need to save this country.
Hate to say it this way, but, hey…
after this show of gutlessness and perfidy…
bub-eye.
No great loss. We’ll do better next time (if it comes to that).
I think I’m going to scream and kick something.
I think if LI readers had a better idea who Tammy Balwin is–what she is– they’d have the same reaction.
You know what, Professor? І’ve had a very bad feeling about November from the time Romney looked like he would clinch the nomination. It’s nothing rational; just a gut instinct. I hope it’s wrong. But it rarely is.
As for the Tea Party splitting the vote, you’re right. There are no adults anywhere, not even running the Tea Parties at the national level.
They piously affect “non-partisanship” by refusing to endorse any GOP primary candidate. So the conservative vote gets split. Result: we get tired, complacent RINO dinosaurs like Tommy Thompson and George Allen (VA isn’t looking so good, either).
The Tea Parties have a lot in common with Barack Obama: they’re great at organizing, utterly incompetent at leadership. Everything is a crisis; there’s no forethought; there’s seemingly no strategic planning.
The Tea Parties have been around for almost 4 years. There’s no SuperPac to drive the media narrative and run commercials; there’s no publicity army like liberal groups have. No, they’re still scratching for small donations.
And for all the hope the Tea Parties gave initially, they’re fast turning into underfunded, directionless groups of “small-ball” thinkers who prefer complaining and attending meetings and conferences to the low-to-medium level, steady, long-range activity that leads to victory.
In short, conservatives have forgotten how to think big and lead. That’s what Reagan gave us; that’s what Gingrich gave us. They were both hated for that reason.
I’ll open by saying I’m not looking for a fight; the request below is prompted by genuine curiosity.
Folks giving me the “thumbs-down”: I’d be very interested to know why.
Because if they did you would attack them.
If you’re one of the “thumbs-down,” tell me why.
Actually I wasn’t. If I wanted to read that sentiment I would be at Hotair.
The problem is the establishment not the Tea Party. Thompson’s candidacy exemplifies this. He should not have run but the establishment’s first goal is not to defeat democrats or Obama but to defeat the Tea Party and conservatives. Establishment GOP who destroyed this country and gave us Obama haven’t even apologized to us for what they did. Instead, they’re on tv and elsewhere condemning Romney or making other negative statements getting publicity for themselves. Some like Ed Rollins insist on tv that Obama’s a nice guy and we better shut up and stop criticizing them for saying Obama’s a nice guy. So, no, I don’t think the Tea Party is the problem. The last thing Obama is is a ‘nice guy.’
1. I think I’m going to scream and kick something.
I’ve felt that way ever since Bush 41 broke the tax pledge with which he swindled conservatives into going all-out for him. Welcome to my world.
2. The national and state tickets are not where they should be and their apparent attitudes concern me, but the outcome remains undecided.
Uh, oh. Sounds like the professor may need a “Pep Talk”!
On Nov. 6, vote “Yes” to a brighter future for America. Vote Romney/Ryan!
All to familiar story to us all. Once again the standard GOP craps the bed and guess what , we TParty types will be to blame. While this is somewhat true it will be more true that old retreads thru a cap.
Breitbart has some more details on this Marquette poll. As usual, their polling way over samples Democrats. http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/09/19/marquette-u-packs-dems-into-poll-to-lift-obama
I guess Thompson has not seen the latest Gallup Poll.
The “Tea Party” is not perfect and it is not an “elected leader” – but it did drive a grassroots movement to net gain us 60 seats in 2010. Imagine if the Dems had controlled this House for the past 2 years? Just sayin.
That said, we are better off with a RINO that votes with us 75-80% of the time in the Senate than losing the seat altogether. But apparently the “establishment Republicans” don’t agree – we are flushing the Akin seat (I agree that Akin is damaged goods, but in Texas we were saddled with Kay Bailey Hutchison FOR YEARS).And his polling is up.
I have never seen the right wing media turn against Romney faster than during the 47% “controversy”. Somebody needs to tell Bill Kristol perhaps we should wait and see if a Mother Jones video provided by Carter’s grandson just might have a little selective editing before we start calling for Ryan/Rubio.
The massive turn out for Chick-fil-A is typical TEA Party mentality: marching to the sound of cannon fire. The TEA Party seems to be more of an idea than an actual organization. An organization would be scrutinized and harassed by the IRS and DOJ. The foul pack of main stream media would come after them. By laying low they can avoid the hassles of being a formal organization. Neumann and Thompson are the ones muddying the waters. Thompson almost acts like all he had to do was announce his candidacy and Wisconsin would roll over for him. Wisconsin is an open primary state. Any idea of the Democratic turnout for Thompson on primary night?
The poll looks rather suspect, as it defies any prior polls on the race. I find the results hard to reconcile with the voting patterns from the last several state-wide races, including govenor (twice) and a Wisconsin Supreme Court slot.
The same poll also shows a surge by Obama in the state. All in all, I suspect that the poll is wrong.
Finally, the alternatives were not attractive. Neuman, the guy who melted down in the govenors race two years ago, has demonstrated he cannot win a state-wide race (multiple times).
Hovde, who SAYS the right things, but is a virtual unkown, with bagage of his own. He is most likely to be the RINO in the grouop.
As far as I know, since the primary, I have seen many Baldwin ads and none for Thompson. Is he even running any more? Does he think that he can cruise into the Senate?
You haven’t seen Thompson ads because the primary race pretty much wiped out the cash on the Republican side. The same would have happened to Neumann and maybe even Hovde. It’s one of the hazards of holding primaries fairly late in the year. Thus Baldwin is able to get on the air while Thompson is still raising funds for the general election.
I’m not worried yet. If there was a referendum asking Wisconsin voters if they would like excise Madison like a tumor it would pass with ease. Remind voters how very Madison Baldwin is and Thompson should be OK.
Out of any state in the Union Wisconsin’s voters are set. Nothing will change their minds because they have been evaluating & fighting for 3 1/2 years solid.
Wi has moved to the Purple but it s not crimson. Few states have 2 R Senators plus a VP candidate. Forces will definitely be in play for pushback.
Example A – Alaska 2008.
However Ryan is no Palin unfortunately. BTW where is he ? He is not giving Wisconsin the wow factor .
He is just the place he was when it was Palin & Cain out there in the wilds of Madison in the snow facing down the rabble.
Okay. Let’s try this one more time. Repeat after me:
“Establishment Republicans are unmitigated losers whose goal in life is to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.”
There is more empirical evidence to support this point than exits to support “Darwinian Evolution.”
Concur.
My theory: Establishment Republicans LIKE having the Democrats in charge.
They get the big government spending necessary for the graft and corruption that’s so near and dear to their hearts. But they can then pretend there’s nothing they can do about it. (We’re the minority party and powerless! they whine. Although Democrat minorities wield enormous power. Hm.)
Out with all of ’em. I lost faith in most of them when they voted to suspend earmarks, which Michelle Bachmann promptly tried resurrect under another name because “my district needs the highway funding.”
My recollection of Thompson as a Governor is that he might have been conservative on social issues, but wasn’t necessarily on financial issues. He was best buds with the highway contractors. Crony capitalism there. Mark Neumann escapes my understanding. He is one of the guys Walker defeated in the primary for the Governorship. Neumann’s been around quite a bit, not particularly successful, but he keeps trying. My impression is that Neumann is more establishment than is needed. Without knowing Eric Hovde, I would say Thompson and Neumann were same-old-stuff. Thompson needs to get off his tired old ass and get to work.
I am so tired of these so-called seasoned politicians crying and whining and blaming some other guy when they aren’t campaigning worth a damn. Mr. Thompson, it is YOUR campaign. Do not cry like a b**ch and blame others for your failures. Now, FIX IT, because we do not have time for your dramatic BS. Thanks.
…and now this:
WILL THIS VIDEO SINK TOMMY THOMPSON’S WISCONSIN SENATE HOPES?
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/09/will-this-video-sink-tommy-thompsons-wisconsin-senate-hopes/262887/
Ok: will it?