If history is any guide, Republicans should be bracing for a difficult midterm. With the lone exceptions of 1998 and 2002, the party occupying the White House has lost House seats in virtually every modern midterm election, fueling Democratic confidence about retaking the chamber next year. But a new poll suggests the outcome may not be quite the slam dunk Democrats are anticipating. Republicans may be in a stronger position than many analysts have assumed.
A Washington Post/Ipsos poll released on Saturday asked participants which political party they trusted to handle the economy better. Despite the spike in energy prices due to the war with Iran, Republicans held a four-point advantage, with 39% choosing the GOP compared with 35% who selected the Democrats.
Likewise, despite the Left’s portrayal of President Donald Trump as a reckless authoritarian bent on destroying “our democracy,” Republicans also narrowly led on the question of which party voters agreed with more on “important issues.” Forty-one percent sided with the GOP, while 40% chose the Democrats.
Democrats maintained a slim three-point edge, 48% to 45%, on the generic congressional ballot — a standard measure that asks voters which party’s candidate they would support in their congressional district if the election were held today.
Although Democrats still lead, their advantage has narrowed considerably from the eight-point margin they held in the RealClearPolitics polling average in early June.
And, as political analyst Chase Bowes points out below, “Anything under D+4 on election night is likely a good sign for Republicans, as they may narrowly hold on to the House. Anything greater will be a win for House Democrats.”
A Democratic advantage of three points on the generic congressional ballot is generally considered neutral territory. In an article about last summer’s redistricting battles, The Wall Street Journal reported that, because of Republicans’ structural advantages from redistricting, analysts estimate that Democrats must win the national House popular vote by 3 to 4 percentage points to secure even a narrow majority. That “efficiency gap” could allow Republicans to retain control of the House even if Democrats win the national popular vote by a smaller margin.
Perhaps the biggest obstacle facing Republicans this November is the enthusiasm gap. Democrats appear far more energized to turn out. Fifty-three percent of Democrats said they were “absolutely certain to vote,” compared with just 45% of Republicans. One possible explanation is frustration among GOP voters over their party’s failure to pass the SAVE America Act despite controlling the White House and both chambers of Congress.
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2078666518078882097?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
As difficult as it may be to believe, another possible explanation is that Trump Derangement Syndrome among Democrats is beginning to subside. A recent CNN poll found that Democrats’ share of the vote among voters who disapprove of Trump has fallen from 90% in 2018 to 69% today.
Finally, Sarah Longwell, founder and editor of anti-Trump website The Bulwark, sounded the alarm over the weekend on X. She warned, “At some point Dems are going to have to grapple with the reality that in the face of all of Trump and Republicans’ manifest horribleness and incompetence, people aren’t rushing toward the Democrats. If you think the DSA stuff is helping, you’ve never talked to a swing voter.”
Republicans would be foolish to ignore the historical pattern of midterm losses or the current enthusiasm gap. Even so, Democrats have little reason for overconfidence. With the generic congressional ballot back in neutral territory, Republicans benefiting from structural advantages created by mid-decade redistricting, and Democratic primary voters increasingly embracing democratic socialist candidates, reclaiming the House may prove more difficult than many expect. If Democrats continue moving left while Republicans maintain their edge on the issues voters say matter most, the anticipated “blue wave” may never materialize. In that case, Democrats could discover that defeating their own moderates is far easier than persuading swing voters to hand them control of the House.
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