New Poll Suggests Midterms May Not Be Quite the Slam Dunk Democrats Expect
Republicans held a four-point advantage on the economy, with 39% choosing the GOP compared with 35% who selected the Democrats.
If history is any guide, Republicans should be bracing for a difficult midterm. With the lone exceptions of 1998 and 2002, the party occupying the White House has lost House seats in virtually every modern midterm election, fueling Democratic confidence about retaking the chamber next year. But a new poll suggests the outcome may not be quite the slam dunk Democrats are anticipating. Republicans may be in a stronger position than many analysts have assumed.
A Washington Post/Ipsos poll released on Saturday asked participants which political party they trusted to handle the economy better. Despite the spike in energy prices due to the war with Iran, Republicans held a four-point advantage, with 39% choosing the GOP compared with 35% who selected the Democrats.
Likewise, despite the Left’s portrayal of President Donald Trump as a reckless authoritarian bent on destroying “our democracy,” Republicans also narrowly led on the question of which party voters agreed with more on “important issues.” Forty-one percent sided with the GOP, while 40% chose the Democrats.
Washington Post/Ipsos poll | 7/9-7/13 RV
Generic congressional ballot 2026
🟦Democratic 48%
🟥Republican 45%
—
Which political party do you agree with more on important issues?
🟥Republican 41%
🟦Democratic 40%
—
Which political party do you trust to do a better job handling the…— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) July 18, 2026
Democrats maintained a slim three-point edge, 48% to 45%, on the generic congressional ballot — a standard measure that asks voters which party’s candidate they would support in their congressional district if the election were held today.
Although Democrats still lead, their advantage has narrowed considerably from the eight-point margin they held in the RealClearPolitics polling average in early June.
And, as political analyst Chase Bowes points out below, “Anything under D+4 on election night is likely a good sign for Republicans, as they may narrowly hold on to the House. Anything greater will be a win for House Democrats.”
Anything under D+4 on election night is likely a good sign for Republicans, as they may narrowly hold on to the House. Anything greater will be a win for House Democrats https://t.co/NFpiBqmulL
— Chase Bowes (@PolPredictions) July 18, 2026
A Democratic advantage of three points on the generic congressional ballot is generally considered neutral territory. In an article about last summer’s redistricting battles, The Wall Street Journal reported that, because of Republicans’ structural advantages from redistricting, analysts estimate that Democrats must win the national House popular vote by 3 to 4 percentage points to secure even a narrow majority. That “efficiency gap” could allow Republicans to retain control of the House even if Democrats win the national popular vote by a smaller margin.
Perhaps the biggest obstacle facing Republicans this November is the enthusiasm gap. Democrats appear far more energized to turn out. Fifty-three percent of Democrats said they were “absolutely certain to vote,” compared with just 45% of Republicans. One possible explanation is frustration among GOP voters over their party’s failure to pass the SAVE America Act despite controlling the White House and both chambers of Congress.
Washington Post/Ipsos – Generic Ballot
Registered voters
🟦 Democrats: 48%
🟥 Republicans: 45%
——
Absolutely certain to vote
🟦 Democrats: 53%
🟥 Republicans: 45%7/8-13 | 2,092 RV | ±2.2%https://t.co/mReJ105rx6 pic.twitter.com/okP2Lb5njf
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 19, 2026
As difficult as it may be to believe, another possible explanation is that Trump Derangement Syndrome among Democrats is beginning to subside. A recent CNN poll found that Democrats’ share of the vote among voters who disapprove of Trump has fallen from 90% in 2018 to 69% today.
Democratic vote share among voters who disapprove of Trump
2018: 🔵 Democrats 90%
*2026: 🔵 Democrats 69%
*(CNN Poll) pic.twitter.com/Rm58D4r9ii
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) July 19, 2026
Finally, Sarah Longwell, founder and editor of anti-Trump website The Bulwark, sounded the alarm over the weekend on X. She warned, “At some point Dems are going to have to grapple with the reality that in the face of all of Trump and Republicans’ manifest horribleness and incompetence, people aren’t rushing toward the Democrats. If you think the DSA stuff is helping, you’ve never talked to a swing voter.”
At some point Dems are going to have to grapple with the reality that in the face of all of Trump and Republicans’ manifest horribleness and incompetence, people aren’t rushing toward the Democrats. If you think the DSA stuff is helping, you’ve never talked to a swing voter. https://t.co/9LgLHkwnYf
— Sarah Longwell (@SarahLongwell25) July 19, 2026
Republicans would be foolish to ignore the historical pattern of midterm losses or the current enthusiasm gap. Even so, Democrats have little reason for overconfidence. With the generic congressional ballot back in neutral territory, Republicans benefiting from structural advantages created by mid-decade redistricting, and Democratic primary voters increasingly embracing democratic socialist candidates, reclaiming the House may prove more difficult than many expect. If Democrats continue moving left while Republicans maintain their edge on the issues voters say matter most, the anticipated “blue wave” may never materialize. In that case, Democrats could discover that defeating their own moderates is far easier than persuading swing voters to hand them control of the House.
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Aaaaaand… the crazy just keeps on rolling…
Former Arizona Democratic Party Vice Chair [Trans] Arrested In Alleged Knife-Wielding Home Invasion
S/he said, she said… who to believe?!
I miss the good old days when we used to lockup insane people.
It’s been a long time since the Democrat party appeared rational.
Fruits, nuts and flakes is now the default setting.
When I had cattle, animals showing these kinds of defects were turned into hamburger or just sent to the renderers for processing into fertilizer and pet food.
It certainly isn’t the party of Scoop Jackson, Stuart Symington (sp?), Hubert Humphrey, or Estes Kefauver.
Another thing that may work against the Democrats is if the DSA gets upset with them and either stays home or votes third party. It may not be a huge number of votes but it may not take the Democrats losing many of those votes to cost them a few close elections.
Don’t be complacent. Go vote, donate where you can to individual candidates, volunteer as a precinct captain, sign up and get trained as a poll watcher. Polls are important reference points for a trend line but not definitive. That said these polls were begun prior to upward moves in oil price and gas prices creeping up towards $4. They don’t fully account for latest economic impact of Iranian conflict. Personally I’m all in favor of curb stomping the Iranian regime till they give up or as Nick Saban was fond of saying ‘make their ass quit’ b/c Iranian operatives targeted me personally, put an individual bounty on my head and killed/maimed friends of mine …but not everyone feels the same way.
The biggest thing IMO is don’t sweat the Cray Cray in deep blue State/CD so much that you get demoralized with some narrative of DSA/commie inevitability and fail to do your part in your own State/CD. The Crazy train in those places is running headlong down the tracks b/c lots of their voters want it that way and/or they’ll vote Cray Cray instead of a sane GoP alternative out of spite. It would have been better resisted by blowing up their primary. Instead we got lots of radicals who won their primary, A few more may very win theirs and many of them will enter Congress b/c the primary IS the race. Maybe some of the $25 million + spent to take a scalp in KY would have been better deployed against Hamawy in NJ or El-Sayed in MI among other very radical candidates. Not just Federal offices either, spending in local contests to counter leftist funding radicals is gonna need to be a priority. We’ll certainly find out in Nov whether that $25million+ was worth it or whether it might have been better spent elsewhere.
Restraints on voter fraud may impair their anticipation.
Hey Thune, try becoming useful!
If it weren’t for the stupid, indefensible war with Iran its pretty likely the GOP would keep the House given the Democrats propensity for self immolation.
But Trump went against one if his most sacred pledges and got us back in another forever war in the Middle East. Unforgivable.
Where have you been? Iran was actively working to develop a nuclear warhead and the delivery vehicle to transport it on. The leadership already said outright that they would destroy Israel and the United States. So would you have Trump wait until a mushroom cloud appeared over Tel Aviv or a major European capital city within range? The job would have been infinitely harder by then.
The screen name fits. Go back on your meds.
.
The gullible have chimed in. “Iran is about to develop a nuclear weapon” is trotted out annually to justify strikes on that country. It was less than a year between the last strike (Operation Midnight Hammer) and the new forever war.
“On June 22, 2025, the United States Air Force and Navy attacked three nuclear facilities in Iran as part of the Twelve-Day War, under the code name Operation Midnight Hammer.”
In the aftermath, Trump stated that Operation Midnight Hammer “obliterated Iran’s nuclear program.” Look it up. From obliteration to nuclear threat in 8 months.
Keep lapping it up.
Some folks say with great regularity and conviction that we can’t believe a word Trump says–that he is an inveterate liar. Yet when it suits their purposes they quote Trump as if his word is gospel. When Trump bragged that “Midnight Hammer” had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear capability I knew he was blowing hot air. Until their enriched uranium AND their religious fanatics are eliminated they are a threat to you and me that must be neutralized.
Seven months is hardly a forever war. Trump did not go against a “sacred pledge.” He did a reality check. You might consider doing the same.
Did you expect it to last seven months when we struck? It was supposed to be a few weeks. The Iranian people were going to rise up and overthrow the Mullahs. How’d that work out?
Did anyone expect Iraq to last 9 years? Afghanistan over 20 years?
We are seven months in, there is no end in sight, inflation is back, US service members are dying and there is no easy out.
We were supposed to send them weapons to do that. I don’t know what happened to that. Did we send the weapons and they were stolen? Or did some State Dept weenie put the kibosh on sending them in the first place?
Bruh, there’s plenty of reasons to justify military action against the Iranian regime. From the ’79 attack on our Embassy they’ve been targeting US Citizens. Too many terrorist acts to list. Let’s use more recent history; Iranian regime sent operatives, equipment, training and cash into Iraq to target US forces. They placed cash bounties on some US military personnel (I was one of many others) They are directly responsible for deaths and maiming of US military personnel. They’re off/on closed or threatened to close international shipping lanes. They are the sponsor of several proxy terrorist groups providing funds, training and personnel to assist and expand the reach and effectiveness of these terrorists to destabilize the region.
This isn’t a ‘new war’ it is the continuation of an existing conflict underway hot/cold since ’79. You won’t find a more America First true believer than me and this conflict is wholly justified as part of that worldview b/c Iran has earned a curb stomping from the USA. Now that’s not to say there isn’t an end state to it, there most definitely needs to be clear goals expressed and achieved by the Trump Admin. In the meantime the Iranian regime intransigent insistence that ‘Iran controls/dictates passage through Strait of Hormuz and/or Red Sea, Gulf of Oman, Persian Gulf or any other international waters will do as the basis to keep curb stomping them until they publicly abandon that folly and demonstrate they will continue to do so.
Generic polls for decades have always shown the Democommies with the advantage. As you can see when the rubber hits the road that advantage vaporized. That being said get off you backside and see that it does again.
No problemo. They just need to dig up a few more Bolsheviks to run.
It is not as if the DSA or some sort of outliers. What they are is dumb enough to say the quiet part out loud. The Democrats have always worked on the Trojan Horse strategy, Run on normal and then govern like a lunatic.
The louder the lunatics of the Left shout, the better to hear them and understand the threat they pose. Keep it up; America is tuning in.
Democrats will destroy everything that they are allowed to touch. Then they’ll blame Republicans.