On Monday, I reported that after another tranche of ballots was counted in the Los Angeles mayoral race, City Councilwoman Nithya Raman had overtaken Spencer Pratt. At the time, I noted how extraordinary the shift was. With 63% of ballots counted the morning after Election Day, Pratt held a commanding lead over Raman, 30.4% to 22.3%.
Yet after election officials processed another batch of ballots equal to roughly 20% of all votes cast, bringing the total count to 83%, the race was transformed. Raman’s support had climbed to 27.1%, while Pratt’s fell to 26.7%, erasing his 8.1-point lead and then some, pushing him into third place.
Based on those numbers, the Decision Desk projected that Raman would advance to the general election.
Later in the day, another round of ballots was added, increasing the share of votes counted to 92.5%. Raman’s support grew further to 28.5%, while Pratt’s slipped to 25.8%.
Following this update, The Associated Press joined the Decision Desk HQ in projecting Raman the winner of the coveted second-place runoff spot.
The AP reported:
Progressive city council member Nithya Raman has advanced to a November runoff against Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass, setting up an unexpected matchup between two Democrats and former political allies to run the struggling city of nearly 4 million.
Unexpected? Not quite.
On Monday night, the Decision Desk projected that Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton would advance to the general election.
Although it’s good news that Hilton will move on to the runoff, his path to get there was far less comfortable than it first appeared. As more ballots were counted, his early strength faded, raising questions about whether he would ultimately secure one of the two runoff positions.
As of 9 a.m. Wednesday, the day after the primary, with 62% of precincts reporting, Hilton led his Democratic opponents with 27.8% of the vote. Former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra followed at 25.4%, while billionaire Tom Steyer — who reportedly poured $200 million into his primary campaign — trailed at 19.6%. The early returns put Hilton in a strong position to advance to the general election.
By Monday, however, with 84% of the ballots counted, the landscape had shifted considerably. Hilton’s and Becerra’s positions had reversed. Becerra now led the field with 27.7% of the vote, while Hilton had slipped into second place at 25.1%. Meanwhile, Steyer continued to gain ground as additional ballots were processed, climbing to 22.4% — an increase of 2.8 percentage points from his election-night showing.
The Decision Desk projected Hilton would win the second spot and go on to compete in November.
At one point in early May, polls showed Hilton leading the pack and a second Republican candidate, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, running close behind. Needless to say, Democrats were panicked over the prospect of GOP candidates winning both of the coveted runoff spots.
Asked by a reporter about this possibility last month, California Gov. Gavin Newsom alluded to a plan that was designed to prevent this from happening. He said, “There is a ‘break the glass’ scenario and there’s many people that have a deep understanding of what it would look like if Democrats were locked out and we’re going to do everything to make sure that doesn’t happen.”
For obvious reasons, Newsom refused to provide specifics, but according to Politico, it may have involved an “opposition campaign” against Bianco that “could drive GOP voters to Hilton” and away from him.
Politico reported:
[T]he Democratic Governors Association recently began sending mail highlighting Republican Steve Hilton as a fierce conservative. The ostensible opposition campaign could drive GOP voters to Hilton, ensuring he consolidates the party’s voters and saps the support of the other Republican candidate, Chad Bianco, enough to keep him from finishing in the top two.
[I covered this story here.]
At any rate, after Hilton’s and Pratt’s strong initial showings were followed by what many conservatives see as a disproportionate decline in support as additional ballots were counted, concerns about California’s electoral system have only intensified. Some — including me — are now asking whether Hilton stands a chance in the general election pitted against the California Democrats’ entrenched control over elections in the state.
President Donald Trump, who has been down this road before, blasted California’s vote-counting process in a Truth Social post last week.
The Dumocrats are at it again! They are trying to STEAL THE GOVERNOR OF CALIFORNIA PRIMARY, AND THE MAYOR OF LOS ANGELES, PRIMARY, AWAY FROM TWO GREAT REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES. Here we go with the very late and massive numbers of MAIL IN BALLOTS
Elizabeth writes commentary for Legal Insurrection and The Washington Examiner. She is an academy fellow at The Heritage Foundation. Please follow Elizabeth on LinkedIn.
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