AtlasIntel, an A-rated, right-leaning polling firm, released new 2028 presidential primary surveys showing Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) leading the Democratic field, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio tops the list of Republican contenders.
Perhaps the most striking takeaway from the Democratic primary poll is that former Vice President Kamala Harris — long considered the frontrunner — has fallen to fourth place with support at just 13%. The survey shows Ocasio-Cortez at 26%, a 10-point jump since the last Atlas poll was conducted in December. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg placed second at 22%. Meanwhile, California Gov. Gavin Newsom registered 21%, marking a 14-point decline from the previous survey.
Additionally, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and New Jersey Sen. Corey Booker each received 4%, while Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro garnered 2%. Candidates registering 1% included Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, California Rep. Ro Khanna, and former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel.
The new poll shows a dramatic reversal at the top of the Republican field. Rubio has catapulted past Vice President J.D. Vance to lead the pack with 45.4%, a stunning jump from 22.6% in December. Meanwhile, Vance’s support has dropped to 29.6%, down sharply from 46.7% in the previous survey. As Professor Jacobson noted in the post below, this is “essentially a complete flip of positions in 5 months.” He added that, “The big online ‘influencers’ and podcasters are out of touch.”
While Rubio has maintained a very high profile throughout President Donald Trump’s second term, his visibility has grown significantly over the past two months amid the Iran war. And clearly, Republicans like what they see.
Trump once called a Vance-Rubio ticket a “dream team.” Perhaps he should revise that to a “Rubio-Vance” ticket.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis finished third with 11.2%, while 10.3% of respondents said they preferred “none of the above.”
Rounding out the field were Ohio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, and Donald Trump Jr., each drawing between 1.7% and 0.4% in the survey.
Speculation surrounding a possible presidential run by Ocasio-Cortez began almost immediately after the November 2024 election. Until now, she has remained in the middle tier of potential candidates.
Her current position atop the Democratic field, however, may say more about the political collapse of Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom than any overwhelming enthusiasm for Ocasio-Cortez herself.
While she is undeniably charismatic, she lacks the depth of experience, policy substance, and the level of intelligence expected of a commander-in-chief. Fiery rhetoric about oligarchs and billionaires may energize the Democratic base, but would likely prove a far tougher sell among the independents who ultimately decide national elections.
Imagine Ocasio-Cortez sharing a presidential debate stage with either Rubio or Vance. She would quickly find herself outmatched on both experience and command of policy.
Earlier this week, I highlighted her disastrous performance on the world stage at the Munich Security Conference in February.
The post centered on her extraordinary response to a question from Democratic strategist David Axelrod about a possible 2028 presidential bid. She replied that her ambitions are “way bigger” than the presidency, saying her ultimate goal is to “change the country.”
The Republican Party would be well-served by either Rubio or Vance at the top of the ticket. And while Ron DeSantis would also be a strong contender, he may be better served by first demonstrating his abilities in a cabinet role within a Rubio or Vance administration before launching a future presidential bid.
It’s still early days. However the chips fall, Republicans are heading into the 2028 election cycle with a strong bench of candidates. While I’m admittedly biased, I can’t say the same about the Democratic Party’s top tier. If AOC, Buttigieg, Newsom, and Harris represent the Democrats’ best options, then I feel extremely confident about a GOP victory in 2028.
Elizabeth writes commentary for Legal Insurrection and The Washington Examiner. She is an academy fellow at The Heritage Foundation. Please follow Elizabeth on LinkedIn.
CLICK HERE FOR FULL VERSION OF THIS STORY