AOC, Rubio Surging in New 2028 Primary Polls from Top-Rated Pollster
Perhaps the most striking takeaway from the Democratic primary polling is that former Vice President Kamala Harris … has fallen to fourth place with just 13%.
AtlasIntel, an A-rated, right-leaning polling firm, released new 2028 presidential primary surveys showing Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) leading the Democratic field, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio tops the list of Republican contenders.
Perhaps the most striking takeaway from the Democratic primary poll is that former Vice President Kamala Harris — long considered the frontrunner — has fallen to fourth place with support at just 13%. The survey shows Ocasio-Cortez at 26%, a 10-point jump since the last Atlas poll was conducted in December. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg placed second at 22%. Meanwhile, California Gov. Gavin Newsom registered 21%, marking a 14-point decline from the previous survey.
Additionally, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and New Jersey Sen. Corey Booker each received 4%, while Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro garnered 2%. Candidates registering 1% included Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, California Rep. Ro Khanna, and former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel.
📊 2028 National Democratic Primary By AtlasIntel (A)
🔵 AOC: 26% (+10)
🔵 Buttigieg: 22% (+7)
🔵 Newsom: 21% (-14)
🔵 Harris: 13% (+5)
🔵 Beshear: 4% (-2)
🔵 Booker: 4% (+1)
🔵 Shapiro: 2% (-4)
🔵 Tim Walz: 1%
🔵 Whitmer: 1%
🔵 Khanna: 1%
🔵 Emanuel: 1%
—
🔵 Moore: 0.4%
🔵… pic.twitter.com/Nr2paWPj1f— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) May 12, 2026
The new poll shows a dramatic reversal at the top of the Republican field. Rubio has catapulted past Vice President J.D. Vance to lead the pack with 45.4%, a stunning jump from 22.6% in December. Meanwhile, Vance’s support has dropped to 29.6%, down sharply from 46.7% in the previous survey. As Professor Jacobson noted in the post below, this is “essentially a complete flip of positions in 5 months.” He added that, “The big online ‘influencers’ and podcasters are out of touch.”
While Rubio has maintained a very high profile throughout President Donald Trump’s second term, his visibility has grown significantly over the past two months amid the Iran war. And clearly, Republicans like what they see.
Trump once called a Vance-Rubio ticket a “dream team.” Perhaps he should revise that to a “Rubio-Vance” ticket.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis finished third with 11.2%, while 10.3% of respondents said they preferred “none of the above.”
Rounding out the field were Ohio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, and Donald Trump Jr., each drawing between 1.7% and 0.4% in the survey.
Rubio surging (per A-Rated Atlas Intel) – JD Vance 29.6% down from 46.7% in December 2025 – Marco Rubio 45.4% up from 22.6% – Essentially a complete flip of positions in 5 months. The big online 'influencers' and podcasters are out of touch. pic.twitter.com/S8iCSAUsGu
— William A. Jacobson (@wajacobson) May 12, 2026
Speculation surrounding a possible presidential run by Ocasio-Cortez began almost immediately after the November 2024 election. Until now, she has remained in the middle tier of potential candidates.
Her current position atop the Democratic field, however, may say more about the political collapse of Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom than any overwhelming enthusiasm for Ocasio-Cortez herself.
While she is undeniably charismatic, she lacks the depth of experience, policy substance, and the level of intelligence expected of a commander-in-chief. Fiery rhetoric about oligarchs and billionaires may energize the Democratic base, but would likely prove a far tougher sell among the independents who ultimately decide national elections.
Imagine Ocasio-Cortez sharing a presidential debate stage with either Rubio or Vance. She would quickly find herself outmatched on both experience and command of policy.
Earlier this week, I highlighted her disastrous performance on the world stage at the Munich Security Conference in February.
The post centered on her extraordinary response to a question from Democratic strategist David Axelrod about a possible 2028 presidential bid. She replied that her ambitions are “way bigger” than the presidency, saying her ultimate goal is to “change the country.”
Axelrod: There are a lot of people who would like you to run for president in 2028. And there are others who would like you to run for the senate.
AOC: In this op-ed that Bezos paid for in The Washington Post, there was a veiled threat—it was the elite saying if you want this… pic.twitter.com/ZjyuXPVu1G
— Acyn (@Acyn) May 8, 2026
The Republican Party would be well-served by either Rubio or Vance at the top of the ticket. And while Ron DeSantis would also be a strong contender, he may be better served by first demonstrating his abilities in a cabinet role within a Rubio or Vance administration before launching a future presidential bid.
It’s still early days. However the chips fall, Republicans are heading into the 2028 election cycle with a strong bench of candidates. While I’m admittedly biased, I can’t say the same about the Democratic Party’s top tier. If AOC, Buttigieg, Newsom, and Harris represent the Democrats’ best options, then I feel extremely confident about a GOP victory in 2028.
Elizabeth writes commentary for Legal Insurrection and The Washington Examiner. She is an academy fellow at The Heritage Foundation. Please follow Elizabeth on LinkedIn.
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Comments
“Imagine Ocasio-Cortez sharing a presidential debate stage with either Rubio or Vance. She would quickly find herself outmatched on both experience and command of policy:
To the loyal democrats experience and command of policy doesn’t matter.
– She’s a woman
– She’s hispanic
– She’s young
– The simps all think they have a chance
– She promises to give them stuff
= She’s a democrat
That is all that matter to them.
‘Tis true… but the Democrats need more than just their loyal base of idiots in order to win. They need people to think their candidate is capable of running the country. All it would take would be one humiliating moment of stupidity and she’d be a laughingstock among everyone who doesn’t automatically vote (D). Thankfully for the Democrats the early frontrunner rarely reaches the finish line in any race that isn’t a forgone conclusion.
My early guess is Newsom, but we’ll see.
obama was not a “great” orator
he just spoke better than 90%+ of those that are blk and that we are use to seeing…fjb ( in his earlier years) was a better speaker than him
kamalala made obama sound like churchill but she still got 70m + votes
aoc could win b/c the rig is in on how to properly cheat
the real beauty of all this is that its 2 latins at the top of the heap
and if anyyy of mamdamis policies “succeed” ( as the capitalism is still flowing to him)
he could be vp
dont forget
the laws WILL CHANGE
and you will not need to be born in the usa to be potus
and with all the lefty trickery ( visa green card cant say illegal etc etc) no one will be allowed to ask your status
Rubio would crush any Democrat in the General Election.
AOC will be the first openly socialist, openly kill-the-Jews candidate. How can she lose? She is basically Mamdani-lite and that is what way too many people want.
*I meant assuming she gets the nomination, which I think she will.
We live in stupid times. God knows how she is going to find someone even stupider than her to be her VP.
fdr…
oh wait you did say openly
Without a major change to the Presidential debates where leftist journalists ask the questions, you know they’ll fact check Rubio just to throw him off. And they will let AOC spout lie and lie.
Fact checking Rubio, if they can even do that, won’t throw him off at all. I doubt it would throw Vance off. They have a lot of years dealing with hostile media.
FWIW I think that the Democrat candidate is going to turn out to be none of the above.
In that list of ‘democrats’ I think the only one close to being a normal American is Shapiro.
Vance suffers from the same problem Harris did: what has he actually done?
Hard to explain, but Rubio now walks with the strong give-no-fucks let’s-get-it-done *executive* stature, while Vance still acts like a senator.
I would pay a lot of money to see Rubio tear into AOC in a debate.
the next dem truly big front runner will be someone who either led the blmplo asent or in fact has been charged with a major violent crime and/ or “acquitted” of one or showed that they were now less prone to violence unless triggered by something crazy like,,,the facts
the disinformation position that fjb granted and then pulled back on was one of those trial runs to see how/what the reaction would be to that
it is a part of the dna of the left to knowingly use propaganda in causing divisions within maga types
fdr was great at it and the msm has and will only grow stronger now as they have shown that the could even stand up against the Musk takeover of twits
this should be aoc running mate as he has the credit and certainly
“the look”
https://patch.com/massachusetts/cambridge/details-cambridge-shooter-tyler-browns-criminal-history-controversial-prison
What would Antisthenes have made of a donkey faced president?
I certainly think Rubio should be the top of the ticket.
To me that seems like newsome supporters looking for a new home.
AOC will flounder. She does not represent a coherent position or mode of change her party needs. Much of her time in government has been her supporters lamenting how hard she plays ball with her elder democrats and how much she shies away from people yelling at her. If we are to have a young president, they need to be made of MUCH tougher stuff than that. Unless the DNC was truly desperate, I would not expect her to see a nomination. Not least of all because of her position on Israel, as far as appealing to the global intifada goes
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