AOC, Rubio Surging in New 2028 Primary Polls from Top-Rated Pollster
Perhaps the most striking takeaway from the Democratic primary polling is that former Vice President Kamala Harris … has fallen to fourth place with just 13%.
AtlasIntel, an A-rated, right-leaning polling firm, released new 2028 presidential primary surveys showing Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) leading the Democratic field, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio tops the list of Republican contenders.
Perhaps the most striking takeaway from the Democratic primary poll is that former Vice President Kamala Harris — long considered the frontrunner — has fallen to fourth place with support at just 13%. The survey shows Ocasio-Cortez at 26%, a 10-point jump since the last Atlas poll was conducted in December. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg placed second at 22%. Meanwhile, California Gov. Gavin Newsom registered 21%, marking a 14-point decline from the previous survey.
Additionally, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and New Jersey Sen. Corey Booker each received 4%, while Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro garnered 2%. Candidates registering 1% included Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, California Rep. Ro Khanna, and former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel.
📊 2028 National Democratic Primary By AtlasIntel (A)
🔵 AOC: 26% (+10)
🔵 Buttigieg: 22% (+7)
🔵 Newsom: 21% (-14)
🔵 Harris: 13% (+5)
🔵 Beshear: 4% (-2)
🔵 Booker: 4% (+1)
🔵 Shapiro: 2% (-4)
🔵 Tim Walz: 1%
🔵 Whitmer: 1%
🔵 Khanna: 1%
🔵 Emanuel: 1%
—
🔵 Moore: 0.4%
🔵… pic.twitter.com/Nr2paWPj1f— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) May 12, 2026
The new poll shows a dramatic reversal at the top of the Republican field. Rubio has catapulted past Vice President J.D. Vance to lead the pack with 45.4%, a stunning jump from 22.6% in December. Meanwhile, Vance’s support has dropped to 29.6%, down sharply from 46.7% in the previous survey. As Professor Jacobson noted in the post below, this is “essentially a complete flip of positions in 5 months.” He added that, “The big online ‘influencers’ and podcasters are out of touch.”
While Rubio has maintained a very high profile throughout President Donald Trump’s second term, his visibility has grown significantly over the past two months amid the Iran war. And clearly, Republicans like what they see.
Trump once called a Vance-Rubio ticket a “dream team.” Perhaps he should revise that to a “Rubio-Vance” ticket.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis finished third with 11.2%, while 10.3% of respondents said they preferred “none of the above.”
Rounding out the field were Ohio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, and Donald Trump Jr., each drawing between 1.7% and 0.4% in the survey.
Rubio surging (per A-Rated Atlas Intel) – JD Vance 29.6% down from 46.7% in December 2025 – Marco Rubio 45.4% up from 22.6% – Essentially a complete flip of positions in 5 months. The big online 'influencers' and podcasters are out of touch. pic.twitter.com/S8iCSAUsGu
— William A. Jacobson (@wajacobson) May 12, 2026
Speculation surrounding a possible presidential run by Ocasio-Cortez began almost immediately after the November 2024 election. Until now, she has remained in the middle tier of potential candidates.
Her current position atop the Democratic field, however, may say more about the political collapse of Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom than any overwhelming enthusiasm for Ocasio-Cortez herself.
While she is undeniably charismatic, she lacks the depth of experience, policy substance, and the level of intelligence expected of a commander-in-chief. Fiery rhetoric about oligarchs and billionaires may energize the Democratic base, but would likely prove a far tougher sell among the independents who ultimately decide national elections.
Imagine Ocasio-Cortez sharing a presidential debate stage with either Rubio or Vance. She would quickly find herself outmatched on both experience and command of policy.
Earlier this week, I highlighted her disastrous performance on the world stage at the Munich Security Conference in February.
The post centered on her extraordinary response to a question from Democratic strategist David Axelrod about a possible 2028 presidential bid. She replied that her ambitions are “way bigger” than the presidency, saying her ultimate goal is to “change the country.”
Axelrod: There are a lot of people who would like you to run for president in 2028. And there are others who would like you to run for the senate.
AOC: In this op-ed that Bezos paid for in The Washington Post, there was a veiled threat—it was the elite saying if you want this… pic.twitter.com/ZjyuXPVu1G
— Acyn (@Acyn) May 8, 2026
The Republican Party would be well-served by either Rubio or Vance at the top of the ticket. And while Ron DeSantis would also be a strong contender, he may be better served by first demonstrating his abilities in a cabinet role within a Rubio or Vance administration before launching a future presidential bid.
It’s still early days. However the chips fall, Republicans are heading into the 2028 election cycle with a strong bench of candidates. While I’m admittedly biased, I can’t say the same about the Democratic Party’s top tier. If AOC, Buttigieg, Newsom, and Harris represent the Democrats’ best options, then I feel extremely confident about a GOP victory in 2028.
Elizabeth writes commentary for Legal Insurrection and The Washington Examiner. She is an academy fellow at The Heritage Foundation. Please follow Elizabeth on LinkedIn.
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Comments
“Imagine Ocasio-Cortez sharing a presidential debate stage with either Rubio or Vance. She would quickly find herself outmatched on both experience and command of policy:
To the loyal democrats experience and command of policy doesn’t matter.
– She’s a woman
– She’s hispanic
– She’s young
– The simps all think they have a chance
– She promises to give them stuff
= She’s a democrat
That is all that matter to them.
‘Tis true… but the Democrats need more than just their loyal base of idiots in order to win. They need people to think their candidate is capable of running the country. All it would take would be one humiliating moment of stupidity and she’d be a laughingstock among everyone who doesn’t automatically vote (D). Thankfully for the Democrats the early frontrunner rarely reaches the finish line in any race that isn’t a forgone conclusion.
My early guess is Newsom, but we’ll see.
I will pay actual money to watch that midwit AOC try and have a debate against either Marco or J.D. Talk about lambs to slaughter.
If not command of the English language. She’s beyond an idiot, but like that weirdo from Delaware and others, she is overexposed in the media.
Which weirdo from Delaware? There are so many now I;m losing track.
obama was not a “great” orator
he just spoke better than 90%+ of those that are blk and that we are use to seeing…fjb ( in his earlier years) was a better speaker than him
kamalala made obama sound like churchill but she still got 70m + votes
aoc could win b/c the rig is in on how to properly cheat
the real beauty of all this is that its 2 latins at the top of the heap
and if anyyy of mamdamis policies “succeed” ( as the capitalism is still flowing to him)
he could be vp
dont forget
the laws WILL CHANGE
and you will not need to be born in the usa to be potus
and with all the lefty trickery ( visa green card cant say illegal etc etc) no one will be allowed to ask your status
Your correct. Obama read great teleprompter but the few times it failed he had nothing to say. Trump, like him or not, can speak for a couple of hours and not need any help doing it.
He can also speak for several hours and say absolutely nothing.
There is that and although I like Trump and voted for him 3 times I have not been to any of his rallies. He does wander around but at least he talks. Obama just stumbles in incoherence. Kamala is the same way. Ask either to talk off the cuff and it gets pretty brutal showing how carefully manicured they are.
How far we have fallen, to think that AOC is leading in a presidential race! Democrats literally have no concept of patriotism!
Take away the teleprompter, and suddenly we have 7 more states than we started out with.
Not without a constitutional amendment.
But you already don’t have to be born in the USA. As the rule is currently interpreted, you just have to be born a US citizen. Hence George Romney and Ted Cruz were/are eligible under the current interpretation.
I certainly remember the left’s floating that McCain couldn’t be President because he was born in the Panama Canal Zone. Farcical then as it is now. Children born to legal US citizens are citizens no matter where the birth happens.
Someone floated the idea. It’s based on Blackstone, and I think it’s a very plausible theory. It’s certainly what I was taught as a child. But that’s not the consensus view of legal experts, and everyone of any significance in the Dem Party denounced it. The senate passed a unanimous resolution declaring its belief that he was eligible.
The consensus view is that “natural born citizen” means “born a citizen, and thus not in need of naturalization”. That’s why George Romney was able to run.
like I said..trickery or otherwise..it will happen
No, it won’t happen and it can’t happen. It might happen that the interpretation changes to become stricter, i.e. “natural born” means actually born under US sovereignty as Blackstone would have it, but I don’t see how it can become more lenient than it currently is. How can one possibly define “natural born citizen” to include someone who wasn’t even born a citizen at all?
OK, one could read it as requiring a president to be “a US citizen who was born naturally and not by caesarian section”, but that’s so obviously incorrect that it would never even be attempted.
Rubio would crush any Democrat in the General Election.
AOC will be the first openly socialist, openly kill-the-Jews candidate. How can she lose? She is basically Mamdani-lite and that is what way too many people want.
*I meant assuming she gets the nomination, which I think she will.
We live in stupid times. God knows how she is going to find someone even stupider than her to be her VP.
Walz will be unemployed and available by then.
In a contest between dumb and dumber it would be a toss up as to who is whom.
Sorry, Joe Biden already owns that “first,” with his “Obiden-Bama” comment.
There’s always Adam Schifty and Ilhan Omar. I doubt as though we can count on jail or deportation to prevent it.
Omar is not native born. She’s prohibited.
fdr…
oh wait you did say openly
Without a major change to the Presidential debates where leftist journalists ask the questions, you know they’ll fact check Rubio just to throw him off. And they will let AOC spout lie and lie.
Fact checking Rubio, if they can even do that, won’t throw him off at all. I doubt it would throw Vance off. They have a lot of years dealing with hostile media.
Rubio is the least likely politician to get “thrown off” by a “fact check” of any politician I have ever seen.
Any “moderator” attempting to do so will simply get humiliated and Rubio will look even stronger.
FWIW I think that the Democrat candidate is going to turn out to be none of the above.
In that list of ‘democrats’ I think the only one close to being a normal American is Shapiro.
Ja! Aber, zu viel Judisch für der partei!
I disagree. It’s Fetterman.
Vance suffers from the same problem Harris did: what has he actually done?
Hard to explain, but Rubio now walks with the strong give-no-fucks let’s-get-it-done *executive* stature, while Vance still acts like a senator.
I would pay a lot of money to see Rubio tear into AOC in a debate.
I like Vance, but he’s really a lightweight. Not ready for prime time as POTUS.
Rubio is head and shoulders above him. Its not even close.
the next dem truly big front runner will be someone who either led the blmplo asent or in fact has been charged with a major violent crime and/ or “acquitted” of one or showed that they were now less prone to violence unless triggered by something crazy like,,,the facts
the disinformation position that fjb granted and then pulled back on was one of those trial runs to see how/what the reaction would be to that
it is a part of the dna of the left to knowingly use propaganda in causing divisions within maga types
fdr was great at it and the msm has and will only grow stronger now as they have shown that the could even stand up against the Musk takeover of twits
this should be aoc running mate as he has the credit and certainly
“the look”
https://patch.com/massachusetts/cambridge/details-cambridge-shooter-tyler-browns-criminal-history-controversial-prison
Keep an eye out for reports (like this one) that studiously avoid ANY mention of the armed citizen passerby who was instrumental intaking this goblin down.
What would Antisthenes have made of a donkey faced president?
I certainly think Rubio should be the top of the ticket.
To me that seems like newsome supporters looking for a new home.
AOC will flounder. She does not represent a coherent position or mode of change her party needs. Much of her time in government has been her supporters lamenting how hard she plays ball with her elder democrats and how much she shies away from people yelling at her. If we are to have a young president, they need to be made of MUCH tougher stuff than that. Unless the DNC was truly desperate, I would not expect her to see a nomination. Not least of all because of her position on Israel, as far as appealing to the global intifada goes
My issue with your argument is that you hold up AOC to an objective standard of accomplishment. That’s how we should be choosing our chief executive. But AOC exists within the domain of the vapid, and there she is queen. Outside her office on Capitol Hill, the walls are festooned with thousands of post it notes to her suggesting this and that – basically a junior high student council level listing of demands. It’s utterly childish and unserious, just like her. However, I wouldn’t count her out at all. She’d be an utter disaster but that doesn’t mean she can’t win.
“Kamala Harris — long considered the frontrunner — has fallen to fourth place with support at just 13%.”
People with her problem often have to hit rock bottom before they can get their life back together.
Swagger-Rate 2028!
https://x.com/rduke0071/status/2054326527576232030
I have no idea what that means.
Is that Mark Wahlberg? Or as we call him, Pokey-Poke?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shooter_(2007_film)
And Levon
Hopefully they use RICO and permanently abolish the lying, satanic crime cabal by then
Watching Occasional Cortex battle greasy Newsolini will be a lot of fun. Two malignant, revolting, entitled, silver spoon-fed, coddled narcissists and incompetents.
Pass the popcorn.
There is no way on God’s green earth that dumb-as-rocks, witless Occasional-Cortex gets elected POTUS. Like crone-harlot-dunce, Kamuluh, she’s too manifestly stupid, lazy, narcissistic and unlikeable.
If the possibility of giving AOC that kind of power wasn’t so dangerous it would be very amusing
I know Dems are a mess but there is no way in hell they are going to nominate AOC! Even the dumb ones know better than that. /she is a big mouth with no brains behind it like Kamala. She talks but doesn’t know what she is talking about. She has no history to debate anyone let alone Rubio, Vance, or DeSantis. My dream is to have an honest debate, maybe on FNC of Rubio, Vance and DeSantis and ask tough questions of all. Remember Rubio has done a good job of carrying out Trumps orders but we have no idea what his orders would be if he were POTUS. Vance has disappeared and it’s basically Trump’s fault because he hasn’t given him any meaningful assignments. Rubio is doing a great job but if you look back to his early days when he was a Trump foe, his ideas were not that great. He was on the “Gang of Eight” that voted for amnesty for most of the illegals. I do not think he would keep Trump’s mass deportation alive if elected.
I was on the radio in Austin today speaking to this very subject
They actually had me on pretty long considering I was a call in
The primaries are a long way off.
For the D’s, I doubt Kamala has a chance. She has no base. AOC maybe, but again doubtful. The California Cuckold has a good shot. If not Gov Hair Gel, then my guess is the D nominee will be someone no one is really talking about yet.
Bonus: For AOC, when was the last time a Congressman won the general election for President? 1880! Governors and Senators win, and now the occasional businessman.
Well, there was Gerry Ford, though no election was involved.
Much better chance of being a senator. She does not have the brainpower to make significant decisions, or the ability to know what she does not know. Imagine her with Xi. Lots will depend on what happens in November and whether the lunatics gain or lose in the Party. But AOC is a dimwit opportunist and these qualities should be her undoing when the rubber meets the road.
Are the elite dems even going to allow just anyone to run? They set the new standard when they ignored their base, primaries and common sense and made cameladuh as “their” candidate.
Not that the base cared, they’re so stupid the elite know it’s a waste of money to have primaries when their extremely ignorant base will show up for they alone choose anyway.
These polls sample numbers are so small, that they are statistically insignificant.
Someone better tell AOC that. LOL
I see the governor of Illinois is MIA on the top ten list.
The only surges in AOC are surges of stupidity and shoddy politics.