In the aftermath of Zohran Mamdani’s surprise Democrat mayoral primary victory in New York City last month, many political observers were left scratching their heads.
After all, how could a far-left radical who has expressed pro-Hamas viewpoints, supports the antisemitic BDS movement, and who previously has shown a general hostility towards Israel, win in a city with the largest Jewish population in the world, especially after the October 7, 2023, Hamas terrorist attacks?
While his deceptive “relatable socialist” shtick and promises of free stuff were certainly part of it (not to mention the fact that Andrew Cuomo has a lot of baggage), something else that may have factored in is the dramatic shift in the Democratic Party over the last near-decade on with whom their sympathies are more closely aligned: Israel or the Palestinians?
CNN‘s data guru, Harry Enten, shared some pretty mindblowing numbers Wednesday that underscore the crossroads the Democratic Party now finds itself at on this conflict:
Enten: I mean, look, Andrew Cuomo, during the primary, attacked Mamdani as being insufficiently pro-Israel. I’m not quite sure the former governor understood how much the politics have changed around this issue among Democrats.What are we talking about here? All right, who [do] Democrats sympathize more with, Israelis or Palestinians? In 2017, the Democratic Party was a pro-Israeli party. Look at this, they sympathized with the Israelis by 13 points. More with the Israelis than the Palestinians.But look at this sea change. Now Democrats sympathize more with the Palestinians by 43 points. Oh my God, that is a change in the margin of 56 points over the course of just eight years. So, all of a sudden, it’s the pro-Palestinian position that actually reigns supreme in Democratic politics, not the Israeli position. And that is part of the reason why Mamdani was able to do so well in this primary because those attacks over Israel, simply put, did not ring true for Democrats. They are now on the side of the Palestinians, not the Israelis.
Enten went on to point out that the most significant shifts came with younger Democratic voters (those under 50 years old):
Who, age 18 to 49, [do] Democrats sympathize more with, the Israelis or the Palestinians? Again, in 2017, younger Democrats sympathized more with the Israelis by 14 points. Look at this shift now. Palestinians. They sympathize more with the Palestinians by 57 points. That is an over 70-point shift in the margin in just a matter of eight years.So, the bottom line is, Mamdani’s base within the Democratic Party, and the base of the Democratic Party of younger voters, younger Democrats, have changed tremendously on this issue in eight years’ time.I rarely ever see shifts like this, Kate, in which you see one side of the equation leading by 14 points eight years ago, and then all of a sudden, the other side of the equation leading by 57 points.
Watch:
While obviously there is a difference between “sympathize with” and “support,” this is nevertheless a deeply troubling development for Democrats, which comes after decades of them coddling antisemitic “leaders” like Louis Farrakhan, and looking the other way when anti-Israel members of their party like Reps. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) and Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) say the quiet parts out loud.
The information from Enten may also better explain some of the panic that has set in among Democrats (especially the ones in New York) about being tied to Mamdani ahead of the 2026 midterms and the 2026 gubernatorial election in the Empire State, especially in the event that he wins four months from now:
“It’s not hesitancy, it’s absolute panic and fear – and fear that not only are they saddled with (Gov.) Kathy Hochul’s very bad polling numbers, now they have to deal with the toxic impact of Zohran Mamdani in the outer boroughs and suburbs,” the source said.Hochul, and the other Dem leaders, now find themselves in a bind and many have held off on publicly endorsing the mayoral nominee — nearly a week after he bested former Gov. Andrew Cuomo by 70,000 votes in the first round of the ranked-choice primary.[…]A source close to Hochul explained endorsing Mamdani could be toxic for the governor as she eyes re-election next year and needs to stay in moderate Democrats’ and Republicans’ good graces.“She can’t endorse him. That’ll be the election. She’ll lose Long Island,” the source said.“She has to be a middle-of-the-line Democrat to win. Not just her, but any national Dems who stand with Mamdani will have to answer for it.”
Democrats built this. Now they must own it.
-Stacey Matthews has also written under the pseudonym “Sister Toldjah” and can be reached via Twitter/X.-
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