Antarctica’s Ice Sheet Expands for the First Time in Decades

Antarctica’s Ice Sheet Expands for the First Time in Decades

Antarctica is a fascinating place. The icy continent has a hidden volcanic system that includes 138 volcanoes beneath its West Antarctic Rift System, which contains the planet’s largest volcanic region.

In fact, earlier this year, a spate of articles emerged, asserting that global warming would cause enough of the region’s ice sheet to melt, resulting in eruptions.

“As the ice melts away, the reduced weight on the volcano allows the magma to expand, applying pressure upon the surrounding rock that may facilitate eruptions,” the authors write. “The reduced weight from the melting ice above also allows dissolved water and carbon dioxide to form gas bubbles, which causes pressure to build up in the magma chamber and may eventually trigger an eruption.”

Sadly, the melting of the Antarctic Ice Sheet shows no sign of slowing, in fact, due to a process known as the ice-albedo feedback—when less reflective ice surface decreases solar reflectance—the cold regions of the world are warming up to four times faster than other areas. While tackling climate change and eliminating emissions remains priority No. 1, thousands of years of volcanism will already be impacted by the damage anthropogenic warming as already wrought.

It looks as though we have staved off another planetary disaster, then.

For decades, Antarctica’s ice sheet has been melting fast, pushing sea levels higher with each passing year. The losses were relentless, particularly in West Antarctica and the vulnerable glacier basins of East Antarctica.

But in an unexpected twist, scientists observed a dramatic reversal: between 2021 and 2023, the Antarctic Ice Sheet gained mass — for the first time in decades. This anomaly, driven by unusual precipitation patterns, is reshaping how scientists understand the icy continent’s role in the climate crisis.

REPORT: Antarctica reverses trend and gains ice for the first time in decades, according to a new study published by Science China Earth Sciences.

Researchers say from 2021-2023, the Antarctic Ice Sheet saw a record-breaking mass *gain.*

Tongji University researchers say… pic.twitter.com/mOtm0NxczK

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) May 4, 2025

The study was recently published in Science China Earth Sciences and is summarized via a piece in the Watts Up With That blog.

The research team, led by Dr. Wei Wang and Prof. Yunzhong Shen at Tongji University, found that the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS gained) mass (about 108 gigatons per year) after years of loss, especially in West Antarctica and the Wilkes Land–Queen Mary Land (WL-QML) region of East Antarctica.

The findings indicate that turnaround was most pronounced in four key East Antarctic glacier basins (Totten, Moscow, Denman, and Vincennes Bay), which shifted from accelerating mass loss to notable gains. The primary driver behind this recovery is attributed to anomalously high snowfall, or “anomalous precipitation accumulation,” which offset previous losses caused by reduced surface accumulation and increased ice discharge.

I will simply note that a study following the eruption of the Hunga-Tonga underwater volcano in 2022 vaporized trillions of gallons of seawater into the atmosphere. Researchers assessed that the eruption was responsible for “the unprecedented increase in the global stratospheric water mass by 13%.”

New research on Hunga-Tonga 🌋

The volcano blew 40 Trillion gallons of seawater into the stratosphere in early 2022. 🌋

"unprecedented water vapor injection"

2023 –> Effects in Northern Hemisphere amplified after strong sudden stratospheric warming starting in mid-February.… pic.twitter.com/v6x4T4BXPR

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) July 30, 2023

Another potential explanation cites sulfur dioxide release from that eruption as a potential explanation for the findings.

For instance, the 2021 Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption, which injected sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, may have temporarily cooled the Southern Hemisphere, potentially enhancing snowfall in Antarctica. Such natural phenomena challenge the assumption that slow, CO2-driven warming is the sole driver of ice trends, highlighting the limitations of climate models that often overpredict warming and ice loss.

The assertion is that this rebound has temporarily slowed global sea level rise, with the recent gains offsetting sea level increases by about 0.3 mm per year from 2021 to 2023. However, I question whether disastrous “sea level rise” is a thing…

30 years of unprecedented man-made sea level rise has left Miami Beach larger than it was 30 years ago pic.twitter.com/6r9OtffX07

— Tony Heller (@TonyClimate) April 29, 2025

The Chinese researchers actually note that natural variability (such as unusual precipitation, volcanic activity, or ocean circulation changes) appears to play a significant role and highlight the complexity of Antarctic ice dynamics.

But the scientists, being scientists who want to be funded for their research, also stressed the need for continued monitoring and nuanced understanding.

To conclude: Natural variability is real and it is spectacular.

Score 1 for natural variability. Record breaking mass gain for the Antarctic ice sheethttps://t.co/Lja57B4nBW

— Judith Curry (@curryja) May 3, 2025

This is especially true when you are dealing with volcanoes.

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