The 2028 presidential race may still be years away, but the early numbers are starting to paint a clearer picture, and two names are already standing out.
On the left, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is making a serious impression. Once considered too progressive for a national run, AOC is now climbing in the early Democratic primary polls. AtlasIntel, one of the most accurate pollsters in 2020 and 2024, shows her near the top of the field if Vice President Kamala Harris chooses not to run. Without Harris, Pete Buttigieg leads at 17%, with AOC right behind him at 14%—a surprising leap for someone who hasn’t even announced yet. With Harris, she is a solid third at 16%.
Even with Harris in the mix, Ocasio-Cortez’s influence is growing. A recent Yale University poll put her favorability at 62% among registered voters. Her support is especially strong among younger Americans, a group that could reshape the Democratic electorate if they show up in big numbers.
Additionally, adding to her growing momentum, data guru and forecaster Nate Silver said in a recent interview that despite her second or third place position currently, she is his favorite to lead the field.
“Silver made his early call in the form of a “2028 Democratic primary draft” discussion on his “Silver Bulletin” Substack with “GD Politics” podcast host Galen Druke, who beat him to the pick.“F–k you,” Silver quipped after Druke named Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) as his first choice for whom he expects to win the 2028 Dem primary. “That was going to be my f–king first pick!
Meanwhile, the Republican side looks far more settled, for now. Vice President JD Vance is the clear frontrunner, leading a potential field that includes Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, pundit Tucker Carlson, and Virginia’s Glenn Youngkin. Vance’s close ties to President Trump and his populist messaging are helping him lock in support from the GOP base. And from the looks of things, no one in the Republican field is within striking distance.
AtlasIntel’s full poll adds more context. It shows clear partisan divides across geography, income, and age. Democrats lean younger, more urban, and more progressive. Republicans continue to hold strong with rural voters and working-class households. Across both parties, concerns about inflation, economic stagnation, and trust in institutions are rising.
So what does all this mean? If AOC’s momentum holds, Democrats will be heading for another identity crisis, torn between progressive ambition and electability fears that roiled them in 2024. On the right, Vance seems poised to carry the Trump torch unless a major challenger emerges.
We’re still early, but 2028 is already taking shape. And if these numbers are any sign, it’s going to be another wild ride and painful Democratic primary.
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