AOC and JD Vance Define 2028 Presidential Race Early
Once considered too progressive for a national run, AOC is now climbing in the early Democratic primary polls
The 2028 presidential race may still be years away, but the early numbers are starting to paint a clearer picture, and two names are already standing out.
On the left, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is making a serious impression. Once considered too progressive for a national run, AOC is now climbing in the early Democratic primary polls. AtlasIntel, one of the most accurate pollsters in 2020 and 2024, shows her near the top of the field if Vice President Kamala Harris chooses not to run. Without Harris, Pete Buttigieg leads at 17%, with AOC right behind him at 14%—a surprising leap for someone who hasn’t even announced yet. With Harris, she is a solid third at 16%.
NEW from Atlas Intel…
2028 Democrat Primary poll:
🔵 Buttigieg 28%
🔵 Harris 24%
🔵 AOC 16%
🔵 Booker 9%
🔵 Whitmer 9%
🔵 Newsom 7%
🔵 Beshear 2%
🔵 Warnock 2%
🔵 Murphy 2%Most accurate pollster in 2020 and 2024 pic.twitter.com/XgtcA6plU3
— Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) April 18, 2025
Even with Harris in the mix, Ocasio-Cortez’s influence is growing. A recent Yale University poll put her favorability at 62% among registered voters. Her support is especially strong among younger Americans, a group that could reshape the Democratic electorate if they show up in big numbers.
Additionally, adding to her growing momentum, data guru and forecaster Nate Silver said in a recent interview that despite her second or third place position currently, she is his favorite to lead the field.
“Silver made his early call in the form of a “2028 Democratic primary draft” discussion on his “Silver Bulletin” Substack with “GD Politics” podcast host Galen Druke, who beat him to the pick.
“F–k you,” Silver quipped after Druke named Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) as his first choice for whom he expects to win the 2028 Dem primary. “That was going to be my f–king first pick!
Meanwhile, the Republican side looks far more settled, for now. Vice President JD Vance is the clear frontrunner, leading a potential field that includes Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, pundit Tucker Carlson, and Virginia’s Glenn Youngkin. Vance’s close ties to President Trump and his populist messaging are helping him lock in support from the GOP base. And from the looks of things, no one in the Republican field is within striking distance.
NEW from Atlas Intel…
2028 Republican Primary poll:
🔴 Vance 60%
🔴 DeSantis 9%
🔴 Rubio 9%
🔴 Noem 8%
🔴 Tucker Carlson 5%
🔴 Youngkin 3%
🔴 Ramaswamy 1%Most accurate pollster in 2020 and 2024 pic.twitter.com/3rakTZE3lm
— Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) April 18, 2025
AtlasIntel’s full poll adds more context. It shows clear partisan divides across geography, income, and age. Democrats lean younger, more urban, and more progressive. Republicans continue to hold strong with rural voters and working-class households. Across both parties, concerns about inflation, economic stagnation, and trust in institutions are rising.
So what does all this mean? If AOC’s momentum holds, Democrats will be heading for another identity crisis, torn between progressive ambition and electability fears that roiled them in 2024. On the right, Vance seems poised to carry the Trump torch unless a major challenger emerges.
We’re still early, but 2028 is already taking shape. And if these numbers are any sign, it’s going to be another wild ride and painful Democratic primary.
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Comments
Any wonder why things are a mess? Polling for president in 2028. Pathetic.
That said, AOC may be peaking too early. Inauthenitcity becomes tiresome. Over time a new generation of moderates could rise, like a Beshear, and there is always Clooney’s fave, another Maryland man. The white guilt progressives are on the march, enabling the violence in the streets.
It is extremely hard to govern when one side does not act for policy, but to damage. At it’s worst, it will be better under the more common sense Democrats, who will not try to ruin everything due to irrational hatred that even they cannot really explain.
The problem for d/prog ‘elders’ is they shut down and stiff armed the Bernie/AOC wing in ’16 for HRC, in ’20 for Biden, then in ’24 shut down the entire primary process to push Biden then when he crashed in his debate performance pushed the incompetent Harris.
Each time they kept telling the more openly commie wing to ‘just wait for their turn’ and that the preselected candidate chosen from the top down was essential to ‘beat the GoP’. They went 1/3 and the one ‘win’ was with lots of Covid shenanigans. The commie wing is tired of waiting. IMO the d/prog gonna get AOC or someone similar b/c they’ll have an internal revolt otherwise. Plus AOC is a ‘woman of color’ so there’s some more boxes checked off in the diversity Olympics that matter to d/progs.
Still would not be surprised if she burned out because there is nothing there besides a schtick. At this rate, 2026 may be a rude awakening for the 20%, and the presidential prospects may shift accordingly. The extremists are looking to force the issue. In any event, better use can be made of resources than prognostications from such a distance.
I don’t disagree about the lack of substance and emphasis on shtick …..buy the same could be said in ’16 for HRC, in ’20 for Biden and ’24 for both Biden and Harris.
Maybe she burns out. If she does then it will be another commie that picks up the nomination b/c the d/prog ‘elders’ IMO won’t be able to keep their hold on the commie/radical wing if they try to stiff them telling again to ‘wait their turn’. The Cray Cray in our culture is pointing to this; United Health Exec murdered, Teslas vandalized, pro terrorist rallies, breathtaking acts of violence cheered as necessary, reporting criminal illegal Aliens denounced. The far left radical wing of d/prog coalition is ascendant.
Let’s not forget the celebrations of the killing of whites by feral blacks. It has now progressed to Suburbia.
The brown shirts are getting itchy.
I’m betting on Jasmine Crockett.
I would not underestimate AOC. For one thing she’s known in her district for good constituent service. According to a leftwing podcast, she can own that seat forever. She’s mastered the skills of an old-school pol.
I even think she’s pretty smart, way better than her education would suggest. She’s young, rich and famous, and there are a lot of people who wanted that role but she’s got it, even with buckteeth. Like Stacey Abrams and her gaptooth, she hasn’t fixed her smile. It’s part of her trademark.
I am relieved to see Chris Murphy at the bottom though. I was afraid of him.
Good constituent service? You mean like losing her district 25K well paying amazon jobs because she couldn’t keep her big mouth shut? That kind of good constituent service?
I have news for you. Any service being provided is being done by her staff, not by her since she can’t bother to ever show in her district. Her chief of staff maybe very good and probably is.
Well of course she doesn’t actually fill the potholes or get people enrolled in government programs. Amazon jobs? Have you seen the people in her district? They weren’t going to rouse themselves for those Amazon jobs, nor get hired for them, in significant numbers. It’s more about food stamps and benefit programs.
An Amazon facility would have revitalized the whole district. Even if its residents wouldn’t get hired for tech jobs there would still be jobs there for them – shipping, cleaning, food, etc… Then there are the restaurants and businesses around the building which would be hiring. Then there are revitalization of the apartments near the building which would have required labor, Plenty of jobs would have been created,
Oh you’re talking about gentrification. It’s often protested against. They call us capitalist pigs and colonizers and worse.
Amazon was 3 election cycles ago. She’s won every race with major landslides.
In a D+25 district.
@ Alex deWynter – that’s the point. I was responding to an argument about poor constituent service. Her constiuents don’t care about amazon.
She is an ambitious, dangerous iditot, who, because of this guaranteed job, will fail upwards the rest of her life.
We’re talking about helping the residents of her district, They vote for D like Chicago votes for D, There is no logic involved.
There are a lot of congress-grifters who take a safe district and rule it until their bodies collapse into dust like in a mummy movie. That doesn’t make her formidable nationwide. She’s shallow and *extremely* leftist in a time where the nation as a whole is moving right.
Anything is possible, and I don’t write her off completely, but the chance of that ditz (and I don’t give her credit for being particularly intelligent) making it all the way to the White House is extremely small.
Is there a “nation as a whole”? There’s the left and the right. There used to be a “nation as a whole” but the communist left is lying in wait now, and unless Trump can clean up the elections and deport enough fake votes, they’ll be coming back.
Trump only won in 2024 because he was facing the worst major party ticket in US history. Biden might have been reelected, he had a lot of good will on the left. Heck maybe AOC with a black VP could have been elected.
BTW AOC was 35, the minimum age for president (who cares about qualifications after Obama though?), on Oct. 13 2024, according to Google.
The are no Common Sense Democrats. Just the loud Marxists and the not so loud but solid supporters.
What is inauthentic about AOC? She’s a genuine leftist. A true communist who steals some for herself just like the old USSR chieftains or current Chinese chieftains. Don’t think communists cannot win. We no longer have people like Joseph McCarthy fending them off. It could have been Bernie in 2020, and he might have won, or at least gotten more votes than Biden did and been declared winner. There’s bitter implacable hatred against Trump’s success, and conservatives generally, and this is not Trump’s fault because those people cannot be reasoned with, but they will be very energetic in 2028.
If we have to run with JD Vance and he’s weakened by having been the bad cop for Trump for 4 years, it could be tough.
She is following the Obama path to wealth while proclaimining to speak for the people. When has any socialist been authentic?
Maybe it will be her. Who knows? Those who rise fast, as in the presidential arena, can fall as fast. It would not be the first time. Unlike the others, including Obama, she would be the least experienced person ever, with the least life accomplishments. No wonder she can only parrot her fake power to the people. Her staying power would be much like Harris. She’s lucky to be speaking to people that only have experience in the social media environment, but even they will come to see that AOC stands for ME.
She doesn’t have great education, but she was a bartender, and who doesn’t like the bartender? Their job is to be friendly and take your money. It’s an honorable role, whereas Obama was “community organizer” which screams communism.
Anyway it probably doesn’t matter anymore after https://www.facebook.com/ALLODSatire/photos/aocs-sister-belinda-is-facing-up-to-20-years-in-prison-after-being-exposed-as-on/999481075647517/?_rdr
AOC at 62% favorability, Americans are F’g morons. I’m so embarrassed.
Don’t believe everything you read. Those numbers aren’t real.
If the numbers are at 1% it is still 1% too many
I’ll grant you that, but keep in mind: m any if not most voters vote for the party, not the candidate. Some locales have voting machines where one can vote straight-party ticket, right down to yes or no on ballot measures.
Because of this mentality, you get Republicans like Nixon who gave us the EPA, wage and price controls, and affirmative action. Three windfalls for the “progressives”.
Even if somewhat fake, that’s remarkable. She’s looking like the nominee.
4 years is a long time. The question is will the party oligarchs let her become the nominee. I say no. Look what happened to Bolshevik Bernie.
That depends on whether the Oligarchs see 2028 as a winnable contest. If they think the odds are bad, they will let AOC or Jazzmin take the L.
AOC sucks
but that won’t get her across the finish line
AOC didn’t define anything.
She can serve beer… if someone reads the labels for her
The youth vote has been becoming more conservative
Trump and Musk are cool
I do t think they will turn around and vote for bugged eye idiot, but then , who does vote for this scam?
I liked Sen. Kennedy’s joke too, but I think it’s wrong. She’s not dumb at all, even though she plays to some dumb-blonde stereotypes as a brunette. She’s crafty and she has a machine behind her. I haven’t heard her say a thing wrong in a long time.
Perhaps if she got together with Kamala and one of them sucked and one blowed they could get a little head wind.
Your a very bad girl
Move them to Iowa and together with JR they can power the state windmill power generators.
AOC got into office because of a low-turnout primary and an incumbent who took the primary for granted as he was spending more time looking at how he could become the Dem leader (and by extension, Speaker of the House). Given she’s now spending a lot of weekends and good chunks of House recesses on the road with Bernie, how often do her own constituents see her?
Also, current polling has her winning a primary in 2026 against Schumer. Does she do that and if successful, immediately springboard to a presidential run? Or does she stay put in the House and run from there?
See Obama.
Every time I hear his name, I think of a song Bert Kaempfert had on one of his albums. The title? “Out of Nowhere”.
Where Obama came from and where he’s going is the same: Nowhere.
Fur Schuur!
Whenever I hear his name, I immediately go to Manchurian Candidate.
In another way, see also Trump. He didn’t win by a big margin, didn’t flip a single blue state, against the worst major party ticket in US history.
Black swans, good and bad. Fortunately it looks like Chris Murphy has peaked as a senator, because if he’d been running in 2024, he’d be president now.
Too bad for Dems that Fidel Castro is no longer available. He was the richest communist in Cuba when he died.
His son is available since Mark Carney took his job. Hmmmm.
But he is not a natural born citizen because he is the son of a Cuban father who wasn’t an American citizen and a Canadian mother who was not an American citizen either.
Poor AOC. I can’t believe she lost her life after she caught a heel and fell in front of the Arkancide Express.
I want AOC to run against Chucky
lots of money gonna be spent that will not be available in the presidential primary/ election.
let mayor Pete run ….
/sarc
LIke Trump, it might be easier for AOC to win the presidency than higher office within NY. No way Trump in 2016, then a resident of NY state, could have been elected governor or especially senator for NY. Not even sure he could win in Florida.
And that might be a real reason for the Dem Establishment to nominate her for President. Chucko has a lot of clout. He will be protected.
🔵 Buttigieg 28%
🔵 Harris 24%
🔵 AOC 16%
The Drag
The Slag
And the Hag.
First off, yes please let her be the Dem nominee. That will be hilarious.
Second there’s not a chance in hell she has a 62% favorability among registered voters. Maybe they mean voters at Yale.
No, really.
It means real voters. The kind of voters that count. The kind of voters who vote. The kind of voters who care about the future.
They’re called “Dominion” voters. Created out of a machine.
But their vote still counts.
This guy says just after 1:05 that many of AOC’s voters also voted for Trump in 2024. He’s a leftist so he’s another one of those people who is well connected to AOC. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mw5zZw4yUIc
The populists (not the hard core radical arsonist/antifa/BLM) who pull the d/prog lever have a good deal in common with the populists of the center/right who voted MAGA/MAHA/Tea Party. That’s the some of the votes we picked up. IMO there are likely to be more than can be garnered by the GoP IF the Congress doesn’t fumble them by playing ‘go along, get along’ DC games instead of passing the policy agenda.
So… democrats first choice is a guy who was a bad mayor and a completely incompetent transportation secretary who didn’t show up to work most of the time. Second choice is someone who slept her way into politics and can’t string together a coherent sentence and claims she somehow didn’t notice her last boss was completely senile. Third choice is a bartender who can’t string together a coherent sentence.
And all of them stand a legitimate chance of becoming president.
How did we get here?
Both AOC and JD Vance are appallingly bad choices.
Can you explain how JD Vance is a bad choice based on his service in the Senate and as VP?
1. His service in the senate is he struggled in the state of Ohio, the money he raised was given to him by Mitch McConnel, the governor of Ohio did 30 points better than him in the same election, he underperformed Trump in Ohio, and it was just a stepping stone to the Veepstakes.
2. He is the one who advocates total extermination of the American economy through stupid self destructive 18th century policies based on lies and emotional manipulation. He is one of three people in the administration who hurts the stock market by opening his mouth.
3. He has picked as his associates America hating anti-Semitic assholes.
You would absolutely not tolerate a Democrat associating with Howard Zinn’s view of WW2, and that is the standard I have for J.D. Vance.
Churchill did not just represent Britain’s finest hour, WW2 was our finest hour to.
Failed to answer the question as asked.
1. Didn’t address his service only your views on candidacy or.the fact.he did win the Sen election.
2. Tariffs and protectionist policies ain’t gonna doom the economy. If they were then the rest of the world would have succumbed long ago.
The post WWII economic order and power dynamic of the USA with an open economy but the rest of.the world operating under protectionist economic policies to exclude US exports or impose tariffs/quota restrictions while the US military acts as world police is done.
Churchill wasn’t the brilliant dude some claimed. His performance as 1st.Lord of the.Admiralty in WWI was abysmal; see the stupidity of his disastrous plan to force Gallipoli campaign. As Chancellor of the Exchequer’24-29 he oversaw drastically reduced military spending and flat refused to see Japan as a Strategic threat. Lots of other less than flattering performances in politics and his personal life.
I will agree that he was the best man for the job in the UK during WWII but much of his success was in part kissing FDRs ass who was already predisposed to assist as an anglophile.. Lend lease helped keep UK in the fight until Japan and Germany foolishly brought the US into the war.
The meat of what you said is only two categories Churchill and post war fate of the U.S. Economy and claims about how badly tariffed America is. J.D. Vance service in the senate was brief and he achieved nothing there. He did however gobble up the vast majority of Mitch McConnel’s spending in 2022 to get there (practically his entire war chest was Mitch McConnel). The state of Ohio isn’t even a swing state there was no excuse for J.D. Vance to take resources from competitive races to save himself. If you meant to say military service instead of service in the senate there are Democrat veterans of the Iraq War in the senate now I hope you aren’t considering supporting those.
But for the meat
1. The “badly tariffed America” claim is a grade a lie. Israel tariffed America at 0% on 98% of goods, with low tariffs on the remaining 2% and switched that 2% to zero percent. Israel subsidizing Agriculture so it has something in the worst case scenario is neither worthy of a trade war nor is it worst than American subsidies which I know you know about because those used to be a major point of contention between LI and the Democrats.
Israel is just one example, Canada, Australia, Mexico……
If you want to discuss China fine, not only should we address Chinese policies but we should address why we are relying on China to fuel our industry when China is a hostile enemy.
China is not the world.
The chart Trump used wasn’t protectionist policies it was a lie he used trade deficits divided by imports. Trade deficits aren’t a bad or detrimental thing. Trust me if everyone worked in manufacturing and agriculture like Madagascar with the Malagasy economy you would have the Second American Revolution in seconds.
You could have autarky or good quality of life not both.
10% tariffs and the American Economy got a gut punch and was on the brink of an actual depression.
You can not convince me that a Ming Vase replica made by an antiquarian in Hong Kong is dangerous to American manufacturers.
You can convince me that the fact that DONALD TRUMP waived all tariffs on EVERY significant Chinese industry in order to prevent the destruction of the U.S. Economy indicts the entire policy.
Why is a Ming Vase replica dangerous but the parts for the cell phone in the pocket aren’t?
2. Did Hitler oppose Kristalnacht? Did the Holocaust happen? Was Churchill the main villain of WW2? Was Germany just a victim of the food not being available and mercy killing people who would have died anyway?
Did America drop the bomb on Nagasaki in order to kill Christians?
Is the dropping of the bomb unjustifiable as Tucker Claims and does it make America no better than Imperial Japan?
Are the Japanese Imperial Army generals who determined ten million Japanese civilians would die in urban combat in Kyushu alone (not counting military) insignificant? Is Tucker right to declare anyone who argues the bomb saved lives as you could prove using ONLY JAPANESE records (use Chinese, Vietnamese, or well any other records and you add many more. Include Japanese and American soldiers and you dwarf the bomb death toll to)?
That question is not an accusation I know you are on team America it is a reminder to you of what the Candace/Tucker/now Joe Rogan crowd are pushing and it is absolutely not America and if you believe any of it and do not believe in the abolition of American patriotism that deeply reflects a malevolent soul.
Churchill did not just represent the finest hour of Britain by keeping the war going at the darkest hour and mobilizing multiple countries to fight to the end he was our finest hour to.
Churchill made mistakes that historians have been pounding him for ever since.
The attack on Churchill from the right is a recycled anti-American anti-Western BS and is in some cases identical to Howard Zinn, only with a high dosage of anti-Semitism added in.
Japan and Germany would never have brought America into the war had Britain capitulated, and the most likely scenario in that case is Axis victory in Russia and everywhere else.
By the way we know who killed Kennedy and have since it happened. It took a special type of liar to notice that along with West German, East German, Italian, British and French and every other intel agency trying to figure out what happened for themselves the Israeli intelligence agency was also redacted and therefore Israel did it…..takes an anti-Semite like Candace Owens and Tucker Carlson.
The 9-11 conspiracy theories was in very recent memory entirely coming from the left.
Now allies of the VP are pushing it.
If he wants to endorse the capitalism he spoke out in defense of in Hill Billy Elegy and stop pursuing a section of the right that is increasingly vile and repulsive to normal people including other right wingers it is one thing.
If he wants to keep pandering to them it is entirely different.
I think capitalism has lifted more people out of poverty than anything else.
I hope the Republican Party I have been a life long member of still agrees with me.
Why is Vance a bad choice?
Because Danny is a Uniparty fangirl. He prefers Republicans that reach across the aisle to the communists and get nothing in return. That’s a win in Danny’s book.
Every moment he opens his mouth the stock market takes a hit.
“It’s the economy stupid”
Bidenflation is the reason Trump is in the White House which makes advocates of inflation like J.D. atrocious as candidates.
So Vance is not just a bad choice, but an “appallingly” bad choice?
Por que, Daniel-san?
Drop some factoids on us, boyo.
“ITS THE ECONOMY STUPID”
The stock market ain’t the ‘economy’.
What’s going on is a change in priorities away from globalist financial services/entertainment and back towards more Main St /middle-class economic concerns. So domestic manufacturing, forestry products,.agricultural products, small business will be the new priority. Seems fair since they’ve been neglected for the thirty years post cold.war era of ‘free trade’ that was anything but.
So why is Trump trying to force Powell to increase inflation right now?
There is no way to separate main and Wallstreet.
America manufactures more than at any point in American History.
Illinois and Michigan manufacture less.
Texas and South Carolina took their jobs because Texas and South Carolina have good capitalist based economics.
Furthermore it takes many fewer hands to manufacture a lot more now.
Ask any American if they want to change places with a Malagasy Rice Farmer to know if the goal of eliminating the current American economy is a good idea.
At this point, I believe that it is no more than 50/50 that the Republicans keep control of the House in 2026. The Democrats are being handed a “chaos” issue, with tariffs, deportations and DOGE. If the Reps lose control next year, all bets are off and the Hillbilly vs the Bartender is conceivable.
Unless the decision to be at war with the American Economy ends the Democrats will own the house.
I still think Shapiro will jump in after some of the loons are weeded out
He’ll try to look like the “moderate ” in the race
There is no way the Democrat party will ever nominate a practicing Jew like Shapiro. Look what they did to Lieberman and that was before the red/green alliance. Shapiro’s best future bet if he wants to stay in politics is retire to the senate.
Gotta say it at least does my heart good to see Newsom towards the bottom of the list. Of that entire list of miserable hacks and leftist nutjobs he’s the one who worries me the most, the perfect combination of incompetence, charisma, and outright maliciousness. And there’s a quality about him that I can’t quite put my finger on that creeps the hell out of me, like I’m look at the frikkin’ antiChrist every time I see him speak… and I’m not even a Christian.
Re AOC, I have heard reports that she really hasn’t done much in Congress, you know, her actual job, for her district. But, reality doesn’t enter into a political race.
That being said.. I just read a X post from Scott Adams,, he was hoping to see Hogg Walz 2028, because it would sound like a dancing pig. Not happening, but great visuals..
been saying it since she arrived
she is their next leader
the feds will be tasked with cleaning up her crime district which she will then use as both against the gop and then she will reap the rewards of a less crime ridden zone
the msm loves her
In 4 years there may not be a msm. They may get themselves sued into oblivion with their continuing antics. Then there are the FCC investigations into at least CBS.
7 Watt Sandy for President?