The tried and true Operation Demoralize media tactic is, of course, still in full effect, with the press working overtime to cover for Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris while hyping a horserace between the veep and GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump in the process.
Operation Demoralize, as explained by Prof. Jacobson, is when the MSM works to “create a narrative that it’s over, that the Democrat’s going to win, that it’s hopeless for Republicans to do anything,” and we’ve certainly seen that in the reports that talk about the alleged “Kamala surge,” her “Sun Belt gains,” the “rising enthusiasm” for the Harris-Walz campaign, etc.
In contrast, the coverage we get of Trump and his running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) revolves around manufacturing “controversies” over statements taken out of context, predictably pushing “Russian interference” conspiracy theories (again), and trotting out disgruntled anti-Trump Republicans to bash the former president.
In the midst of it all sits polling guru Nate Silver, who since Harris’ ascendance to the top of the Democrat Party ticket has been slicing through the media/Democrat spin machines to try and find the real story of where things stand in the race at this point in the game.
Silver is an admitted supporter of Harris’ campaign and says he plans on voting for her. But his stats models and number-crunching of swing state polls are showing a decline for Harris despite the pomp and pageantry (and media fangirling) of the Democrat National Convention last month:
In a lengthy write-up at his site, Silver went into detail about how the Electoral College could give Democrats nightmares again in 2024:
From the piece:
…let’s talk about the elephant in the room: the Electoral College is starting to look like a challenge for Kamala Harris. This was a problem for Democrats in 2016, of course, and also in 2020 — when Joe Biden won the popular vote by 4.5 points, but the tipping-point state, Wisconsin, went for Biden by only 0.6 points.[…]The problem for Harris is that Donald Trump has been gaining on her in our polling averages, too — at least in the most important Electoral College states. If, say, Harris had gained 1 point, when the convention bounce adjustment was expecting her to gain 2 points, that would look like more of a rounding error in the model. Instead, though, she’s actually losing ground since the start of the convention in swing state polls.[…]Still, a two-and-a-half-point Electoral College bias is a lot to overcome in a political environment when most elections are extremely close. And at the risk of piling on bad news for Democrats, I’d note that polls show a considerably smaller GOP lean in Wisconsin than in 2016 and 2020, a possible concern for Harris given the history of polling errors there.
As Silver noted on his Substack (emphasis his), “…we have the Electoral College in toss-up range even if Harris wins the popular vote by between 2 and 3 points. And she’d need to win the popular vote by roughly 4 points to truly [be] ‘safe’ in the Electoral College.”
Relatedly, there was also this:
It goes without saying that the numbers are subject to change and likely will. But one smart (IMO) rule of thumb to go by in the coming weeks for the Trump campaign and its supporters is to proceed like they are 20 points behind regardless of whatever good news they get polling-wise and keep pushing the pedal to the metal.
Because Democrats don’t just have their own internal war machine; they’ve got the media in their back pockets, too. And as we saw in 2016, 2020, and now as well, their combined forces will stop at nothing to keep Trump out of the White House.
— Stacey Matthews has also written under the pseudonym “Sister Toldjah” and can be reached via Twitter. —
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