DeSantis Replaces Campaign Manager
Changing campaign managers of a flailing campaign may or may not do the trick. More fundamentally, DeSantis has followed a flawed strategy of dancing around Trump’s many weaknesses.
Ron DeSantis has had trouble gaining traction against Donald Trump ever since the Manhattan indictment of Trump in March, before DeSantis announced. That is where a race that was tightening coming into 2023 suddenly moved to a large gap for Trump as a rally-around effect took place, which Trump and his campaign expertly exploited for fundraising and demands of loyalty.
The chart shows the breakout in late March.
That rally-around effect has continued with each successive indictment. I’ve long called this a manipulation and a set-up, with Democrats doing everything they can to promote Trump getting the nomination because they want to run against him, while also making it more difficult than it already would be for him to win a general election. The rally-around is a trap.
It’s not just a rally-around effect, though. DeSantis has run a bad campaign. He allowed Trump to spend six months dumping $18 million of negative ads, and attacking relentlessly, before DeSantis even entered the race or responded. It was a very smart move by Team Trump.
DeSantis’ campaign rollout, with the botched Twitter Spaces launch, has been weak at best. The campaign has been too formulaic, too scripted, too conventional.
But most important in my view, is that DeSantis has followed a flawed strategy of dancing around Trump’s many weaknesses. DeSantis didn’t and doesn’t need to call Trump names the way Trump does, but DeSantis needed to confront Trump’s many failures and inadequacies as a general election candidate without hesitation.
I expressed this before DeSantis even launched his campaign:
“going after Trump remains largely taboo within the party” – nipping around the edges of Trump’s weaknesses isn’t going to work. If DeSantis is not willing to go after Trump head on (the way Trump has been doing to him), how can he expect Republican voters to do so? It’s the reason prosecutors walk up to the defense table and point at the defendant – not b/c people don’t know who the defendant is, but to show the jury that prosecutor is not afraid of the defendant and to give the jury the courage to convict. DeSantis needs to give Republican voters in the middle who are neither OnlyTrump nor NeverTrump the courage to vote against Trump.
"going after Trump remains largely taboo within the party" – nipping around the edges of Trump's weaknesses isn't going to work. If DeSantis is not willing to go after Trump head on (the way Trump has been doing to him), how can he expect Republican voters to do so? It's the…
— William A. Jacobson (@wajacobson) April 23, 2023
Now DeSantis is changing campaign managers:
Ron DeSantis has replaced his campaign manager Generra Peck, in what is the third major reshuffling of his operations, a campaign spokesperson and a person familiar with the move confirmed to POLITICO.
Peck will be shifted to a role of chief strategist as part of the new order. Taking her place atop the campaign will be James Uthmeier, who has served as chief of staff in DeSantis’ governor’s office. In a text message, Uthmeier said the change was happening “ASAP.” …
One person close to the campaign, who was granted anonymity to freely discuss the issue, said that Peck’s removal, which was first reported by The Messenger, was “no surprise. Should have happened a few weeks ago.”
DeSantis’ campaign spokesperson, Andrew Romeo, also confirmed the staff moves in a statement, saying that “Uthmeier has been one of Governor DeSantis’ top advisors for years and he is needed where it matters most: working hand in hand with Generra Peck and the rest of the team to put the governor in the best possible position to win this primary and defeat Joe Biden.”
Changing campaign managers of a flailing campaign may or may not do the trick, but it’s hardly a sign that the candidate is finished. Donald Trump changed campaign manager, campaign chair, and political director during the 2016 campaign.
It always was going to be difficult for any candidate to overcome Trump in the primaries. DeSantis has not done himself any favors with his botched campaign to date. But this is a long process, if he can turn it around.
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Comments
DeSantis is following Scot Walker’s footsteps. Great in a small pond; no appeal nor network nationwide. Also both fumbled their messaging against Trump early on in their campaigns.
President Trump should have selected Scott Walker vs having Pence the traitor dumped on him
From what I know, and I don’t know too much Post Walker Governance, what he’s been up to, he hasn’t been an obnoxious A$$hole like the antiTrumpers… but maybe I’m
Wrong
He was very good for Wisconsin
Just didn’t have much personality for a National run unfortunately
Scott Walker would not have done anything different regarding the 2020 election, gonzo. No sane person would.
So, we cannot disagree with you unless we are insane? Or, you are?
I specifically stated that Scott Walker would not overturn the 2020 election as these people claim Pence could (he could not, as the professor explained repeatedly). And that no sane person in the role of VP at the time would have, either. You can drag that out as far as you want, but what I said was perfectly clear.
Correct
I think the scope of the constitutional authority of the vice-president’s to resolve disputes over the legitimacy of electoral votes is not as clear cut as the Never-Trumpers like to pretend. But regardless, it is amusing to watch DeSantis fans try to distract themselves from his train wreck of a campaign.
“I specifically stated that Scott Walker would not overturn the 2020 election as these people claim Pence could (he could not, as the professor explained repeatedly). ”
And ‘The Proffessor” is wrong.
There IS a process that doesn’t ‘overturn’ elections, it’s what is done when a clear outcome is impossible to discern from the available information.
If the Vice president cannot determine a clear, verifiable winner, he has the option of moving the question to the state legislatures or to the Congress. Pence himself has noted this.
This is not ‘overturning’ anything since there is no certification to BE overturned..
It is a determination.
In 2020 this could not be allowed –because either option would have led to a second term for Trump. Republicans hold more state legislatures and more state delegations.
This is the perfidy we deal with.
Lol rrriiiggghhhtt…
But also , probably he would have been a asset to President Trump whereas Pence was a traior all alone
I believe in my heart he got Flynn out by orders from his handlers and just kept the treason going all through Covid and Jan 6
For some reason I don’t think Scott would be so easily bought
Also Pence admitted recently that he indeed had the power to put the count on hold
And
Funny, they changed the law right after
Hmm
Why change something of its not lawful?
https://rollcall.com/2022/07/14/bipartisan-bill-would-clarify-that-vp-role-with-electors-is-only-ceremonial/
Clarifying means …
I was a big supporter of Walker at the beginning of the campaign, but he made a big mistake by hiring the wrong campaign advisors, and they killed his campaign before he even got out of the gate.
I was also a big supporter of Walker – good results, well spoken, calm demeanor, battle tested – and he was my first choice.
Did feel like some of his positions were being influenced by big donors (i.e., no longer his own man); however, was still going to vote for him in the primaries.
Respected him for recognizing the situation – not going to win the nomination – and dropping out when he did.
Still makes me laugh to read the analysis of MSM experts:
“His exit offers an opportunity for former Florida governor Jeb Bush to consolidate his support among voters looking for an experienced executive. It also opens a potential avenue for New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and Ohio Governor John Kasich to become darlings of those same voters, who are wary of a third Bush in the White House. And Senator Marco Rubio now has an unrivaled path on his road to capture establishment Republicans looking for a fresh, young face. Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee complimented Walker’s decision to exit the race on Twitter.”
DeSantis has to face the reality that he is both far less savvy and more warts than Trump.
Dancing around President Trumps many weaknesses ?
First give him the respect he deserves and second.
The weaknesses are all little”d’s” himself
We do not have kings you idiot, nobody is owed a nomination, especially not someone who polls in the low 40s, who lost 2023 in Wisconsin, lost 2022 Midterms, lost the 2020 election, lost the 2018 election, and while a win is a win lost the popular vote in 2016 by a large margin while barely winning 3 swing states Hillary considered safe.
We need to pick up independents who don’t like Trump because a majority is 50%+1 not 45%+1.
Idiot
Lovely individual you are
Oh stop it. You accuse people of being drunk, dumb, disloyal, and a load of other things in your defense (you think) of Trump. Now you want to play holier-than-thou? Hilarious.
Fuzzy, I understand your disappointment with DeSantis blowing this. Maybe in 4, more likely 8 years, DeSantis will ready of prime time.
God. You need professional help fuzzy
For pointing out your hypocrisy? For noting the absolute, demonstrable fact that you regularly smear and attack anyone who is not bowing at the altar of Trump while simultaneously playing holier-than-thou as here? Yeah, I don’t think I’m the one in complete denial about what kind of person I actually am. That’s all you.
.
.
In your world it’s okay for husband Trump to hump filthy whores, disrespect and publicly embarrass his wife, First Lady Melania, and .. ah heck. Lets just stop at publicly embarrassing his wife.
The deal with power couples is this; never embarrass the spouse. I know there’s no love there, that’s okay. It’s the way of the world. But he broke a deal with his most intimate business partner. There’s something very disturbing about that.
Don’t you ever dare talk about ethics, or a moral code, not here, and especially not you.
Disgraceful!
1) “…who lost 2023 in Wisconsin, ”
• Social issues were a big part of the 2021 VA election, and after the SC decision abortion was a significant issue in WI – maybe THE issue, for many citizens.
“Abortions were legal until 20 weeks of pregnancy in Wisconsin until last summer, when the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the 1973 ruling Roe v. Wade, which had legalized the practice nationwide. The state’s revived 1849 abortion ban outlaws all abortions unless a mother would die without one. Though Gov. Tony Evers responded that he would veto any bill that does not codify Roe, the issue will likely end up in the hands of the Wisconsin Supreme Court.”
https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2023/03/31/wisconsins-supreme-court-race-heres-everything-you-need-to-know/70037178007/
2) “…who…lost 2022 Midterms, ”
• Another mid-term election that followed historical precedents in the House – but not Senate.
• After the SC decision in June, abortion was a significant issue – maybe THE issue, for many citizens.
• More Trump endorsed candidates won their election than lost their election.
• “Trump’s endorsees won 216 of the 257 called races held on Nov. 8 (84%).” — Ballotpedia
3) “…who…lost the 2018 election, ”
• In the last 20 mid-term elections, the party in the WH has lost seats in the House 20 times (100%).
• 6 Presidents have seen more House seats lost than Trump: -40 (Obama: -63, Clinton: -52, Ford: -48, LBJ: -47, Eisenhower: -48, Truman: -45).
• In the last 20 mid-term elections, the party in the WH has lost seats in the Senate 13 times (65%).
• Only 6 Presidents – including Trump: +2 – have seen seats gained in the Senate (Biden: +1, GWB: +2, Regan: +1, Nixon: +2, JFK: +3).
4) “… and while a win is a win lost the popular vote in 2016 by a large margin while barely winning 3 swing states Hillary considered safe.”
• In the last 10 elections Dems won the popular vote 7 times – and the election 5 times.
• Both Trump (2016) and GWB (2000) won elections without having the most popular votes.
• In 2016 Clinton had 48.1% of the popular vote (2.1% difference).
• In 2000 Gore had 48.4% of the popular vote (.5% difference).
• Clinton won two elections with less than 50% of the popular vote (1992: 43%, 1996: 49.2%).
• Nixon, JFK, and Truman all won elections with less than 50% of the popular vote (1968: 43.4%, 1960: 49.7%, 1948: 49.4%).
Everybody has feet of clay, and Trump is no different.
I like Trump, but that is no reason to ignore his shortcomings.
He is not a perfect person or a perfect candidate. But, he may win the Nomination.
He certainly doesn’t change, reset, and pander like other candidates.
“”Donald Trump changed campaign manager, campaign chair, and political director during the 2016 campaign.””
Disagreements on strategy, wrong peg in the wrong hole, unforced errors, personality conflicts, “personal reasons”; all sorts of reasons why change occurs.
yes.. I would say his personality is rough around the edges.. but you can focus on that, or focus on the good that he did.. Professor didn’t like him in 2016, nothing has changed. Fuzzy is the same. They are honest about it.. to each their own.
No they aren’t honest
Fuzzy claims she supported and voted for President Trump twice
I do t believe that
Well, you do project a lot.
I like Trump’s forthrightness and lack of polish.
Ten thumbs up. Trump’s appointments in DOJ/FBI, his lack of draining the Swamp and making Fauci “King For A Year” arguably cost Trump re-election and really hurt the country. Almost even worse, his failure to go all out in the GA Senate seat runoffs in Jan 2021 cost us the entire Biden legislative agenda. That said, Trump is still far better than Biden, but so are all the other Republican candidates.
Here in Florida the prevailing view with a majority of Republicans (even when Desantis was running for reelection as governor) is that Ron Desantis should finish his term as governor. The feeling at the time is that it was not a pro Trump view but an over riding fear that his successor is going to be half as good.
“2 MORE YEARS 2 MORE YEARS 2 MORE YEARS”
That is a funny way to show it.
I, too, live in Florida, and I, too, wanted DeSantis to sit this one out. But he didn’t, so here we are.
I do want to remind you, though I doubt you’ve forgotten, that one of Crist’s attacks on DeSantis was that he would only be gov for two years before leaving to run for president. Floridians knew that was a possibility, and we all said (and I said it directly to Crist) that we’d prefer two years of DeSantis to four of Crist. I still feel that way. Crist would have been an abject failure and complete disaster, our Lieutenant Governor is heads and shoulders better than him (and that was the choice during the ’22 midterms, remember?).
Since DeSantis is term-limited out after this term, we were always going to lose him as our governor, anyway.
I am getting a “shoot the messenger” argument here. In fact, when it comes to DeSantis (who was also my Congressman) I am sharing what I heard from many Republicans when working Voter Registration tables or attending campaign events in the Sunshine State. Those outside of here really have zero say in this.
I am curious how you bring in Chain Gang Charlie. Wait, mark that why would you? He has nothing to do with this. The concern that I heard and is quite valid is who succeeds Ron. I am not referring to Nunez (let’s speculate DeSantis somehow wins the nomination and the presidential election in 2024) since she would be elevated as governor. DeSantis has made his mark here. Most policies he has pushed have been quite conservative and popular as I am sure you have not forgotten either.
Yes, you state the obvious of RDS being term limited but voters here are thinking out loud and expressing appropriate concerns. So, does the next governor be Ashley Moody? Most don’t know this but she has received more votes then DeSantis. Is it Byron Donalds? He is a Rick Scott guy and Scott and DeSantis don’t like each other. Or is it an unknown Republican that Tallahassee wants?
Finally, though I like DeSantis and I give him a lot of credit for what he has done here, Ron is in trouble. We all know it and he knows it. Also, I am not an ass like many fervent Trump supporters who believe Ron DeSantis is a spawn of George Soros. Whoever gets the nomination should be supported 100%. Unfortunately, there are too many cracks to put back together.
I wonder id DeSantis is smart enough to mend fences and be a good soldier for Trump?
Mend fences with Trump? Gov DeSantis knows he won’t need to do that. You see he is smart enough to know that Trump will be begging him for a pardon from a Federal penitentiary.
I believe that he would be a good soldier, after all he is a politician and his future is in politics.. Just look at Ted Cruz who took a merciless beating from Donald Trump and now defends him with ferocity.
You say that as if Ted Cruz or Trump did an honorable thing. This is why Trump will lose the general. He’s more effective at attacking those the most like him than those that are exact opposite of him.
From back when SNL was a bit funny.
The indictments are causing DeSaantis’s failure — Yeha yeah that’s the story.
The Democrats are open about trying to get Trump as their opponent.
Rrriiiggghhhttt !!!!
I love a good scrap, also am fine with getting smelly by joining SOBs in the gutter long enough to do them in.
I’ve long called this a manipulation and a set-up, with Democrats doing everything they can to promote Trump getting the nomination because they want to run against him, while also making it more difficult than it already would be for him to win a general election. The rally-around is a trap.
Ha, that is funny and really out of touch. Sure, tell yourself that. I doubt the Dems are worried about DeSantis. It is going to be Newsom and Whitmer? It Trump wins the RINOs will pay the price. They have the most to lose.
I really don’t think DeSantis has a chance. He continues to piss off the Trump voting base. Why do you thing they would vote for DeSantis? Come on, he does not believe in election fraud? He does not believe Trump is getting railroaded? Is anyone tracking the voter fraud. They found bags with guns, gift cards and voter registration cards in Muskegon Mi. !
Pretend all you want but if voter fraud is not addressed, it does not matter who the candidate is. As for everyone running against Trump, sorry, I don’t think they have the guts to take on the established Uniparty and RINO’s.
Too much of this dancing around Trump and playing the Democrat’s game is likely to give us a total place holder final candidate. The Trump ‘NO’ vote is deep in the party. We could wind up with a candidate like Asa Hutchison who can’t beat Biden either..
“”The Trump ‘NO’ vote is deep in the party.””
Well, yes. A lot of that has to do with his core base. It makes things a little awkward to run as the candidate of a party completely rejected by his strongest supporters.
” The Trump ‘NO’ vote is deep in the party. ”
It is.
In the DEMOCRATIC party.
Republicans, and people on the right, however, think differently.
Never mistake nevertrumpers for Republicans. Their actions get Democrats and Democrat policies enacted. There is a term for people who help Democrats.
I don’t dislike DeSantis. But he has been painted, and rightfully so, a reincarnation of a Bush. He needs to separate himself from the Bush’s the Rove’s, the McCain’s, and the Romney’s of the world. He is too invested in by GOPe super donors. I don’t know how he will do that but until he does, he wont get past the smell test for the conservative base.
Please provide even ONE link to a credible source that states that DeSantis is in any way connected with “the Bush’s the Rove’s, the McCain’s, and the Romney’s of the world.” We’ll wait.
And how is he “too invested” in the “GOPe super donors” who previously, by the way, supported Trump (and are now moving on to Tim Scott)? Let me guess, Scott, too, is a globalist because Trump’s former donors have rejected him (and are in the process of rejecting DeSantis)? Get your story together. Either these donors are a problem for ALL candidates, including Trump, or they are not. If you are just upset that they no longer support your guy, just say that. Nothing wrong with that, but to impugn Trump’s own previous donors is to impugn Trump. Don’t you get that?
You can speak for the Only Trump base, but you cannot speak for the conservative base. DeSantis is ten times more conservative than Trump is, was, or ever will be. Conservatives know this because we actually pay attention.
That’s where all of his money is coming from! He’s inauthentic. He can’t kick out his major donors
It’s all he’s got. He has like 10% small donors vs President Trump 89%
Making Trump jealous as hell.
Attorney General Adam Laxalt has brought on two national political operatives to help run his nascent campaign for governor, including a former chief of staff to prominent Republican political operative Karl Rove.
A little deep dive in GrayRobinson (Chris Spencer) will get you a few nice links to Rove and Jeb Bush.
Kim McDougal as a little history with them.
There is still a lot of time before the primaries. DeSantis has a huge war-chest, and Trump is hemorrhaging money from legal fees. (I think this explains his earlier demands for candidates to step down.) There is no other major candidate who is viable in the race. Still, DeSantis’ campaign has not done itself any favors. His main appeal is that he showed impeccable judgment during COVID and stood up against the Powers that Be (including Trump) better than any other politician. That hasn’t come through. (FWIW, I’d love to see a DeSantis ad that’s just pictures of him with Kipling’s “If” spoken in the background.)
Instead, his messaging repeats the same rage cycle: Biden/AOC/DOJ/etc does something infuriating; DeSantis opposes it; and Donate! It’s stupid. It’s generic. It doesn’t play to his strengths at all.
I’m raged out. I want revenge, served cold. I want a plan to restore the old America. That means running against Biden and Trump and, especially, the GOP. He must argue that USG needs fundamental structural reforms: purging the administrative state, crushing modern robber barons, breaking Democratic power centers, bringing justice to his friends and retribution to his enemies. He should argue that this, quite frankly, revolutionary program must proceed any other social, economic, and political reforms, or these reforms are stillborn. Finally, he needs to make the case that he alone can make this happen. At this point, he has a platform to go against Trump due to his manifest limitations.
Few OnlyTrumpers will be convinced by a generic GOP candidate. Fewer will be convinced by Trump-lite. Perhaps though, they could be convinced by General Washington reborn and marching on DC.
I love the messaging of DeSantis supporters. DSeSantis would look real good with a backdrop of a poem that ends with the reader becoming a man.
I can’t decide whether the reference is to Kipling or to bottom surgery.
Touche!
BTW if you are interested there is a nice reading of Kipling by Michael Caine on YT.
“”That means running against Biden and Trump and, especially, the GOP.””
“”breaking Democratic power centers,””
Ok, I’m with you. Now, who do you thinks is left to vote for him – independents? They’re split pretty much between the major candidates, and I don’t see much enthusiasm for another Perot. That makes him a third party candidate with no base.
Not sure it will save his campaign at this point but yeah Desantis really needs to change up his approach if he is going to have a chance. His campaign has been stagnant for too long, if he doesn’t start gaining support soon he might not even make it to the first round of debates (if we even have them).
His campaign is definitely not taking off and may well already be over, but I do expect him to stick it out until at least the first debates and first round of primaries.
DeSantis should give his campaign a theme, perhaps something like “No More Lies”, and this should be supported by his refutation of the lies coming from both the Democrats AND Trump’s campaign.
Better than anyone else in the field, DeSantis is able to discuss the real issues in detail, and elaborate on what he has actually done in dealing with them.
“DeSantis should give his campaign a theme, perhaps something like “No More Lies”, and this should be supported by his refutation of the lies coming from both the Democrats AND Trump’s campaign.”
Do you think DeSantis should apply that standard to himself?
“He’s running in 2024 on the things that he promised to do in 2016 and didn’t do,” DeSantis said. “He said he was going to drain the swamp. [2) Build the wall, 3) Lock-up Hillary, and 4) Eliminate the national debt.]” — Ron DeSantis
https://www.wmur.com/article/ron-desantis-new-hampshire-town-hall/44737596
• Have not found a single source – other than DeSantis or Democrat partisans – that claim that Trump’ 2016 campaign goals included: Eliminate the national debt.
• Have not found a single source – other than DeSantis – that claim that Trump’ 2024 campaign goals include: ‘Lock-up Hillary’.
• Have not found a single source that claims that the scope of the ‘Drain The Swamp’ problem Trump campaigned on in 2016 – term limits, lobbying & campaign financing – defines the scope today.
It is 100% disingenuous for DeSantis to: a) assign 2016 goals to Trump that Trump did not have, or b) assign 2024 goals to Trump that he does not have, or c) pretend that in 2016 Trump ran on the current scope of the Drain the Swamp problem.
Again, do you think DeSantis should apply that standard to himself?
I dunno. I’m a lean Trump guy and I remember an awful lot of “lock her up” stuff. It may bot be written down on a website, but that was a definite theme of a lot of the rallies and even came up in the debates. “Cause you’d be in jail!” Or something close to that was a big deal when he said it.
But it wasn’t a policy
And unfortunately in the end he forgave her and wouldn’t let any lawfare take her out
That was a mistake but really, do you think Sessions would have done anything?
Sure, but repeated statements of intent should count as a campaign promise.
“I remember an awful lot of “lock her up” stuff. It may ot be written down on a website, but that was a definite theme of a lot of the rallies and even came up in the debates. ”
• 100% agree, and Trump said that he would appoint a special prosecutor to investigate Hillary Clinton in the debate.
““If I win, I am going to instruct my Attorney General to get a special prosecutor to look into your situation because there have never been so many lies, so much deception.””
• That was one of the best moments I have ever witnessed in a debate – a true ‘Truth to Power’ moment.
• It is true that after the debate Trump spoke often about the need to appoint a special prosecutor to investigate Clinton.
• It is also true that Trump fired Comey in May, 2017 – made decision to not investigate Clinton – and shortly thereafter his AG recused himself and his DAG appointed a special prosecutor to investigate Russian interference, etc. – which greatly complicated things for Trump.
• It is also true that a President cannot appoint a special prosecutor, and that Trump continued to publicly press his AG to do so (please see dates below in link below).
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/358772-timeline-trump-calls-for-clinton-to-be-investigated/
• To be fair, it is pretty clear that Trump tried to have Clinton investigated, and it strikes me as 100% disingenuous of DeSantis to claim that ‘Locking Hillary Up’ is a 2024 goal for Trump – when it is not, which is my key point.
https://www.wmur.com/article/ron-desantis-new-hampshire-town-hall/44737596
Multiple facts can be true at the same time.
A. “Ron DeSantis has had trouble gaining traction against Donald Trump ever since the Manhattan indictment of Trump in March, before DeSantis announced. That is where a race that was tightening coming into 2023 suddenly moved to a large gap for Trump as a rally-around effect took place, which Trump and his campaign expertly exploited for fundraising and demands of loyalty.”
1) Citizens are rallying around Trump as a reaction to both attempts to prevent them from nominating their preferred candidate, and the recognition that the charges are a reflection of the two-tiered justice system under the Biden administration.
2) Citizens are getting a better look at DeSantis since his May kickoff and have come to the conclusion that he looked better “on paper” than in person; which has led to a steady decline is his support, while other candidates have increased their support (see the graph WAJ posted).
3) Citizens prefer Trump because he was one of the most successful presidents in our lifetimes.
B. “I’ve long called this a manipulation and a set-up, with Democrats doing everything they can to promote Trump getting the nomination because they want to run against him, while also making it more difficult than it already would be for him to win a general election. The rally-around is a trap.”
4) Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.
5) Most citizens can see that a Dem controlled DOJ is attempting to keep Trump from running – because he was successful, and is a threat to win, again (See Gov. McDonnell).
C. “DeSantis … needed to confront Trump’s many failures and inadequacies as a general election candidate without hesitation.”
6) Take the concerns of ‘can win nomination, but not general’ seriously, and have been trying to see if I can learn anything helpful from history (i.e., party lost general election because selected wrong candidate).
• Over the past 20 elections – 1944 to 2020 – the Republican candidate won 10 times and lost 10 times.
• The 2nd place Republican primary candidate for each lost election is as follows: 1944-Bricker, 1948-Stassen, 1960-Rockefeller, 1964-Rockefeller, 1976-Reagan, 1992-Buchanan, 1996-Buchanan, 2008-Romney, 2012-Santorum.
• In 1960 Rockefeller lost to Nixon – 30,639 to 4,975,938. And in 1964 Rockefeller lost to Goldwater – 1,304,204 to 2,267,079 (57%).
• Kennedy beat Nixon in 1960 – with the help of voter fraud. And Johnson beat Goldwater in 1964 – but I am not sure any Republican candidate could have overcome the 1963 Kennedy assassination aftermath in 1964.
• Setting aside 1944 and 1948, it wasn’t until 1976 that the 2nd place Republican primary candidate popular vote came within striking distance of the nominee – Reagan: 4,760,222, Ford: 5,529,899 (86%).
• Ford lost to Carter in 1976, and Reagan beat Carter in 1980 – but I am not sure any Republican candidate could have overcome the 1974 Nixon & Watergate aftermath in 1976.
• Romney lost to McCain in 2008 – 4,699,789 to 9,902,797 (47%) – and then lost to Obama in 2012.
• Have not dived into the same Democrat data yet.
7) Have no problem with the 2024 Republican candidate being decided by the primary process for many reasons. Including the conclusion that the historical data does not support the concept that the 2nd place Republican primary candidate would have won the general election; which makes sense given the platform, coalition building, momentum, etc. required to win the nomination.
D. “But most important in my view, is that DeSantis has followed a flawed strategy of dancing around Trump’s many weaknesses.”
8) Citizens are getting a better look at DeSantis since his May kickoff and have become aware of his weaknesses too.
• 100% believe that once the primaries & debates start the contrast between DeSantis and the other candidates – not just Trump – will not work in RD’ favor. (see what has happened since RD announced).
• Have commented before that I support many of the positions/ actions that DeSantis has taken. And I do support many of the positions he has announced. The rub is when I go to the DeSantis campaign site.
https://rondesantis.com/
• I am not only underwhelmed, I am embarrassed for DeSantis. Especially when I compare his campaign site to the Trump campaign site.
https://www.donaldjtrump.com/
• To be fair I have no idea what Trump’ 2016 campaign website looked like. However, in 2023 there is a night & day contrast between how those two candidates are communicating their vision/ plan.
• Part of that is the clarity of the site design – home page stipulates vision/ plan via written executive summary & objectives v. verbal clips & headlines – and part of that is the clarity of the vision/ plan (i.e. form follows function).
• A sound vision/ plan should be Comprehensive, Cohesive, and Credible – not just a compilation of shiny objects and distractions. And even more disconcerting is how did DeSantis reach this point and not understand that the Economy will always matter.
• Only one of them comes across as an Executive, and has having the Experience & Expertise to be the President. Again, to be fair Trump has been both the President and one of the most successful Presidents in our lifetimes.
• DeSantis does deserve credit for what happened in Florida while he was Governor – especially when it concerns election corruption (see Brenda Snipes & Susan Bucher). And folks far more knowledgeable than me have written about the differences between a State and National executive office. However, it is not the office that determines if an individual has a ‘Command Presence’ or the ability to ‘Connect’.
• Yes, the DeSantis inventory of what we saw pre-Presential campaign was dominated by shiny objects/ distractions and angry denunciations/ sparring. However, it is starting to appear that that is who DeSantis is – not just what the MSM showed us – and that there may not be another “side”. Or enough of another “side” to help balance out his image.
• I’ll add that when he is not in a “set format” – news conference, speech, etc. – he appears unable to command-the-room, or connect with others. That will only become more apparent when he is compared to other candidates – sometimes literally side-by-side (see debates).
• DeSantis should have joined forces with Trump. That would have allowed him to contribute what he appears to do well, while seeing firsthand what the national role & responsibilities entail. That would also have required the humility to understand that experience matters.
Lastly, Have always found trends to be very useful for forecasting; which then leads to recommendations. Will concede that I cannot prove that my forecast is better than anyone else’s – but my experience is forecasting is undermined if it does not include all key facts & history.
Last lastly, for the life of me I cannot understand how some of DeSantis’ most ardent supporters expect to win over others when they will not acknowledge Trump’ tremendous successes as President.
https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/trump-administration-accomplishments/
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/trumps-list-289-accomplishments-in-just-20-months-relentless-promise-keeping
Looks like DeSantis is peaking way too soon. Panic is setting in. Too bad, he has appeal.
Peakng..maybe, or was it a failure to launch?
DeSantis has never been a great campaigner. I always thought he would struggle to connect with the working class coalition that Trump built.
He won a landslide in Florida because he did a great job as governor, not because he is charismatic. He is not.
His analytical nature makes him great at tackling certain issues and effective at execution. That same strength does not serve him well on the campaign trail where he comes across as calculating, trying to find nuance that comes across as typical political “having it both ways” when he needs to stake out bold positions.
Changing campaign managers won’t fix things if he doesn’t fix that. He is not Bush, I don’t buy the Trump supporters criticisms of him, love what he is doing in Florida, and I think he would do a great job as president in executing a similar agenda to Trump – and might be better than Trump at executing it.
But winning elections nationally is different than winning re-election in Florida.
I don’t think he can win the primary (or the national) without overhauling how he comes across. And that’s hard.
Excellent assessment.
DeSantis can’t win a national election that requires winning pro-abortion states like MI, WI, PA, VA, or AZ. Ramaswamy is a better alternative to Trump.
All DeSantis has to say is that he backs states’ rights (the 10th amendment) and that he is not going to push a national abortion ban. I don’t think he’ll do that, but it would be best politically since Americans generally support abortion in the first trimester but not beyond.
What we are going to end up with, of course, is Gruesome Newsom pushing abortion until the moment of birth, and Trump rambling on in his new Kamala braindead style about . . . whatever flits through his head. He’s an embarrassment.
Trump loses to Newsom. He loses to Biden. I doubt he could even beat Hillary this time since so many people have been turned against Trump by fake news, lies, and other nefarious means. But WHY they hate him and would rather stick with corrupt Gropey Joe doesn’t matter. What matters is that they do and they would.
I beginning to believe someone here is actually AL
But resist we much. We must, and we will much-
about that- be committed.
Al Sharpton
Gonzotx is the Al Sharpton of the always Trump drink the cool aid crowd. Remember how that turned out.
Anything you are for there’s a good chance it’s shit
Ram is a globalist
Ram just sued the WEF for giving him one of their “good boy globalist” awards against his will, to defame him. Stop lying about him.
I like much of what he has to say. I mention before that I was concerned about how his money was made, At that time I remembered I had qualms. I knew he did investment,that didn’t bother me because his approach to investment was antiDEI. I couldn’t remember how he got his seed money.
It was from working in Biotech. That concerns me. How excatly did he make his money in Biotech?
Ramaswamy has far too many question marks and unknowns to trust at this point, which is why I’ve at least for the moment written him off in the primaries. FWIW, he doesn’t talk like a globalist, but as I’ve noted elsewhere, he’s a little too glib with a “conservative” message that seems to conflict with what little is known of his background. Another big warning flag to me is that. although he’s moved up in the polls enough to challenge DeSantis, it appears that nobody in the Trump camp is taking note or engaged him. I think his role is to do just what he’s has done: take support from DeSantis, with at least the momentary full support of the Trump camp.
Obviously, all this is subject to change as he becomes better known and more is known about his past.
“Pro-abortion states like Arizona…???”
It is now.
not being able to recognize that their NT vessel is a total bust
NTers will resume their favorite pastime
cutting ads for the dims
they talk about Trump like he’s a new strain of the clap but say they will vote for him in the general
color me skeptical, self fulfillment runs deep with these folks
Well, one thing the OT’s are honest about is that they won’t vote for anybody other than Trump, so you have to respect that. OTOH, there’s no reason to respect people like you that project that state of mind onto everybody else, or ignore the fact that if everybody felt that way, Trump loses by the biggest landslide in American history. Millions of people who didn’t think all that much of Trump voted for him AT LEAST twice, (I voted for him 3 times, including one primary) and some of them will vote for him again – but my guess is, always assuming that his support doesn’t totally collapse in the next year for reasons both known and yet to know, he won’t get close to 75 million again, and Trumpbots will be one of the reasons.
Trumpets can’t seem to get through their heads that outright lies, factual inaccuracies, and a berating persuasion strategy are counterproductive. In this case, I’m not talking about Trump (although it could easily apply). I’m talking about their self-sabotaging toxicity.
I think Ron is missing something fundamental. Targeting the opposition is wrong. I just do not want to see a nation where criminals manage to keep 45 out of the election process. And, I fervently hope we have a fair election. That is the whole point of this.. The people choose. Support your favorite guy, either with time, or donations. I think it is too early to say what will happen. Way too early.
“I just do not want to see a nation where criminals manage to keep 45 out of the election process.”
Too late, you already live in one. Since 35. A little belatedly, but then again it wasn’t the election that was the issue back then.
Since the election fraud has not been and will not be substantively addressed, the end result will be the same as 2020; the Dems will win.
It doesn’t matter who the R nominee is.
DeSantis offers a stark choice when it comes too Trump’s fatal and horrendous decision to hand the country over to Fauci. That alone is why I hope Trump isn’t the nominee again because I don’t think Trump can learn from his mistakes. If you want more lockdowns, say for a climate change emergency or some other leftist dogmatic policy position, then risk Trump being the nominee. One, I don’t see Trump not making that mistake again. Two, Trump loses and Democrats can no longer be stopped.
I really don’t think Trump had a choice about bucking Fauci. With zero support from Mitch and the RINO’s in Congress, we was hosed. Look how well he handled Andrew Cuomo in New York. 45 K ventlators? Sure. He took all the shit they throw at him and he through it back. I put a bet on anyone there that is complaining how he handled Covid got the Vax. I really blame the governor for the terrible response. It was their health departments that were the enforcers. The local grocery store called the cops on my wife because her mask was on her chin. How is that Trump’s fault? Remember Pence owned this baby and he was doing everything to take down Trump.
Excuse parade. Leaders have choices and lead….blame game is one of Trump’s favorite pastimes (as well as that of his loyal trumpets)
Apparently, until Trump saved him in 2018, DeSantis was not making much of a connection with voters or as a candidate in Florida. He was destined to lose. Perhaps it’s the same now when he’s ventured outside his state.
He’s made several missteps for sure, a dent in the narrative of adminstrative prowess, when performing on a larger stage, with far more obstacles.
As for Democrats wanting to run against Trump, that’s their problem. The “trap” narrative assumes that someone else will run stronger, but there are too many variables to accept anything that Democrats may want. They will not only have to account for themselves and Biden and the sorry state of the country, but the corruption and cultural excesses. What about an impeachment inquiry? If Biden goes, and if they dump Harris, what will that mean for the Democrats and the election?
As facts continue to expose the wrongs by Democrats and against Trump, it bolsters what Trump has said from the start. Imagine what might have been accomplished without the resistance and the collusion? He is the beneficiary because he is the symbol and victim of the injustice. Someone else, not so much.
Democrats want Trump so much that they are trying to disqualify and jail him so he cannot run. Sometimes, the most obvious answer is the right answer. One can play their game, but know who is running the game. It should not be the basis to vote against Trump because disqualification on those grounds means they have won.
Funny thing about facts…there are many of them.
Those facts are also exposing how much of a careless blunderer Trump has been and continues to be. When he stashed away the documents, he was already impeached with rumors of a second. He took them anyways assuming that he could just do what other political creatures had done.
This is someone who either doesn’t learn or chooses to ignore lessons. He also expects other smarter strategists to follow him down his lunatic rabbit hole and calls them disloyal when they refuse to be a fellow traveler idiot.
DeSantis helped Trump before and after Trump helped DeSantis BTW. Scoreboard.
Helped is different than saved. You sure know a lot about what’s in Trump’s mind.
Exactly- they are attacking his ability to campaign with the latest attack coming from a potential gag order and perfectly timed indictments.
I think a direct attack against Trump’s weaknesses would backfire spectacularly. His support is too deep and too broad amongst the base, and there are counterarguments aplenty to excuse most of those weaknesses that his supporters are well-versed in and quick to deploy.
I’m no political strategist, but I think DeSantis’s best option would be to play up his own achievements, like standing up against the COVID lockdowns, that would expose Trump’s vulnerabilities on key issues. Let that play out and gain traction before applying any pressure. I’m skeptical that Trump’s supporters can be peeled off, but this approach might stand the best chance of success.
I agree that there is a strategy afoot to promote the nomination of the candidate the Democrats believe they have the best chance of defeating, but that was their strategy in 2016. This time they’ve added abuse of prosecutorial power to their arsenal, but I’m not sure they will be able to manage the beast that they have unleashed with enough precision to succeed. I’m not going to predict how these prosecutions will affect the general. To be honest I think some fear with regards to Trump as a candidate is less about whether or not independents will vote for him and more about how much more motivated the Democrats will be to cheat if he is the nominee.