NY Times/Siena Poll Gives Dems Edge in Key Senate Races but Notoriously Underestimates Republicans
In early October, Robert Cahaly, the founder of Trafalgar polling, suggested that Republican voters would be undercounted, again.
The race for the Senate is still up for grabs and the polls shift almost daily, but the New York Times/Siena poll is giving Democrats a slight edge.
What you have to know is that the NY Times/Siena poll has a history of underestimating Republicans.
NYT/Siena Poll Overstated Democratic Support by…
5.7% in Arizona (2020)
5.55% in Pennsylvania (2016 & 2020)
3.3% in Nevada (2020) https://t.co/u0AJgHQuCX— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 31, 2022
From the New York Times:
Senate Control Hinges on Neck-and-Neck Races, Times/Siena Poll Finds
Control of the Senate rests on a knife’s edge, according to new polls by The New York Times and Siena College, with Republican challengers in Nevada and Georgia neck-and-neck with Democratic incumbents, and the Democratic candidate in Pennsylvania clinging to what appears to be a tenuous advantage.
The bright spot for Democrats in the four key states polled was in Arizona, where Senator Mark Kelly is holding a small but steady lead over his Republican challenger, Blake Masters.
The results indicate a deeply volatile and unpredictable Senate contest: More people across three of the states surveyed said they wanted Republicans to gain control of the Senate, but they preferred the individual Democratic candidates in their states — a sign that Republicans may be hampered by the shortcomings of their nominees.
As Ed Morrissey notes at Hot Air, the NY Times/Siena polls look like outliers compared to other polling at Real Clear Politics.
In early October, Robert Cahaly, the founder of Trafalgar polling, suggested that Republican voters would be undercounted again.
The Daily Wire reported:
Trafalgar Pollster Signals Republican Voters Will Be Undercounted Again Ahead Of Midterms
A top pollster signaled many deeply submerged Republican voters would be undercounted again in the weeks ahead of the 2022 Midterms Elections in November.
Robert Cahaly, founder and senior strategist and pollster of Trafalgar group, observed during the debut of Election Wire, a new weekly podcast from The Daily Wire scheduled to air every Sunday leading up to the elections next month, that with the upcoming election around the corner many Republican voters would be underestimated after legacy media talking heads and establishment politicians declared MAGA republicans “enemies of the state.”
“These submerged voters aren’t answering polls, they aren’t putting stickers on their cars, or signs in their yard — they’re not even posting on social media,” Cahaly said. “They are underwater. They’re not saying a word to anybody until election day.”
Cahaly said voters shouldn’t trust polls in the coming weeks, considering many pollsters failed to accurately predict the last three elections by highly favoring Democrats and undercounting Republicans.
If the polls underestimate Republican voters, the GOP will win some of these races. In fact, they could win a majority of them. I’ll leave you with this:
Not making a prediction here but based on polling, this Senate map is within the realm of possibility. pic.twitter.com/J0jNozQmG3
— Mike LaChance (@MikeLaChance33) October 31, 2022
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Comments
Republican/conservatives frequently and rightfully avoid polls. Add that to the oversampling of Dems, and voila!, we have Operation Demoralize.
Or Operation “I don’t need to vote because we have this in the bag.”
Sage advice: ignore the polls, vote hard, vote in person.
Dimsdale is a sage. Two thumbs up!
Just as long as he doesn’t try to nail my head to the floor or screw my pelvis to a cake stand.
I am limited to biting the heads off live whippets! 😉
No, it’s operation “Steal”
Polls in general and the NYT in particular.
I never understood why any conservative would waste the mere time it takes to read the NYT.
Then again, I never understood why US troops would turn on Axis Sally or Tokyo Rose.
I read the NYT via the internet archive for the same reason Russians read Pravda back in the day.
I’m sorry, ambiguity — “turn on” meaning “turn the radio on,” not “turn against.”
These Dem +10 polls are coordinated to give cover for widespread cheating.
Say, isnt this the kind of media driven misinformation that Biden’s HLS and DoJ is supposedly interested in this mid term cycle???
Or are they only interested in misinformation that hurts the Biden Junta?
Yes! They are even saying Fetterman has overtaken Oz
Oh please
That is based on the high priority order of pre-filled in mail in ballots Democrats ordered after Fetterman lost the debate. They are being flown in from Shanghai and should arrive by tomorrow.
The issue is that RCP is going to remove badly performing polls from future representation within their polling average data. It can’t be overstated how valuable inclusion within the RCP average is to the polling outfits both in prestige and financially.
Those polling outfits who miss the mark by deliberately over sampling d/prog and underweight of r and the growing number of independent voters are going to suffer severe damage to their reputation that will have direct consequences to them.
The history of the polling in the last few elections is that they move to reality at the end to preserve the illusion that they’re worth a shit.
Yes but everyone has caught on to the scam. Recall the abysmal performance of most polls in 2016. Then again in 2020. That was their final polling numbers mind you, not the mid summer registered voter illusion.
I really believe that RCP taking a stand to provide a strong incentive to be accurate v partisan nudging where these polls finagle the sample to juice the number for their favored candidates to create an inevitability angle will be extremely effective and important.
It’s a small thing but just like Musk opening up Twitter to a more free atmosphere of debate v the past where debate was squelched it will prove important.
The NYT has moved from being a once respected newspaper to an expensive Twitter page to the equivalent of Pravda in English-Pravda means truth-and the NYT often is devoid of truth. Take a look at this very recent poll,.https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/NY-General-Poll-Report-1031.pdf
1.33% participation rate? Is that like 16 people, or is my math off?
Regardless, polling twice as many Dems as Repubs is statistically invalid, unless you want a particular outcome.
No, it means that if the result is based on (picking a number out of the air for purposes of illustration) 1,200 responses, they had to contact 1,200/.0133 people, or 90,226 people, 1.33% of whom responded. It’s actually worse than that, because from there they’ll try to adjust for what they think (based on voter registration data and the census, usually) to make the final base (that 1,200) representative of known cohorts.
Even if you’re good at it, polling is harder and harder in the age of mistrust (well-founded) and robocall screening. Even ethical pollsters are having a harder time of it, one result being that there are now about half as many pollsters as there were a decade ago. It’s expensive and difficult.
I used to make fun of people who believed what they read in Pravda.
Now, I make fun of people who believe the New York Times.
The NYT has long had the Pauline Kael attitude toward Republicans-If none of my friends voted for Republicans, how in the world did they win?
The New Dork time is known for its push polling.
FJB and FNYTimes. Sorry to hear anyone reads their BS.
Fetterman Says He’s “Proud” He Voted To Release First-Degree Murderers
Wrong answer.
The NYT poll wax mostly pre-debate, I’m not sure if I’d but much stock in it, even if they had been highly accurate
Baghdad Bob had more credibility than the NYT
Vote. Poll watch. Push on the shenanigans, from weird ballots, to creaky laws, to media tilting the field, to shady and worse campaigns, to crappy candidates.
If they “win” make it Pyrrhic.
“The bright spot for Democrats in the four key states polled was in Arizona, where Senator Mark Kelly is holding a small but steady lead over his Republican challenger, Blake Masters.”
(Nelson): “Haw haw!”
This morning’s news has tossed that into a cocked hat.
(Never, ever vote early, folks.)
Real Clear Politics just went from R+3 to R+4 in the Senate, adding NH to AZ, GA, and NV. I think if the Rs take NH, they’ll take CO. And if that happens, the Rs could go +50 in the House. That’s if the elections are honest. Holy shit!
I live in WA, and reliable polls are saying Smiley might beat Murray. I will have to see it to believe it, and same for OR governor. Believe me, I will stand and cheer if either of those happens, but we’ve been head-faked before out here.
If you think Washington is going to switch, you need to go to the Olympian and read the story of the KNOWN CRIMINAL they just appointed to the school board.
The Fox news story states parents are outraged, but if you read the local paper, 6 of 8 speakers were in favor of hiring this scumbag for the school board. Now the activists surely stacked the deck because that’s what they do… but we are IN that school district and this is how the broader community of morons think. THIS IS WESTERN WASHINGTON. We fought this and were called racists and white supremacists.
In a sane world we’d be tossing half of the scum bag car thief druggies career criminals in a wood chipper- but Wa is quite content with this and has been for a long time. THEY ARE PROSECUTING COPS FOR ENFORCING THE LAW. That’s how upside down stupid this state is.
Net net- be very suprised if Wa or Or go red this election.
The D’rat friendly polls likely factor in the well-known 5% cheat-factor Democrats rely upon.