Latest RealClearPolitics Senate Forecast is Gloom for Democrats, Great for Republicans
Watch New Hampshire!
I love RealClearPolitics and The Cook Political Report. I doubt individual polls since 2016.
The latest RCP Senate forecast map is a sea of red with a few blue islands.
The map shows the GOP will enter the new Congress with 54 seats and Democrats with 46 seats. That means the GOP will pick up four seats and the Democrats…none.
We learned at the debate why the Democrats didn’t want Pennsylvania Senate candidate John Fetterman to debate Republican candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz. Fetterman gave a painful and awkward performance, showing us he needs to devote all his time to his recovery from the stroke.
Before the debate, Fetterman led in projections and forecasts. After the debate? Oz gained steamed and is now projected to win and hold the seat for the GOP.
But the GOP will likely flip New Hampshire, Nevada, and Arizona.
New Hampshire is the craziest because incumbent Democrat Sen. Maggie Hassan has had comfortable leads. As of now, Hassan’s RCP average is 0.5%. But newer polls have GOP candidate General Don Bolduc with a slight lead. The momentum is swinging towards Holduc.
New @realDailyWire/@trafalgar_group #NHSen #Poll (10/30-11/01) shows challenger #Bolduc taking small lead over incumbent #Hassan. #nhpol
Featured Story: https://t.co/j3qnQIPPRW pic.twitter.com/uloFfHSLz4
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) November 3, 2022
NH SENATE: 2 Polls in a row show Don Bolduc leading Maggie Hassan
Bolduc (R) 47% (+1)
Hassan (D-inc) 46%
Bolduc (R) 48% (+1)
Hassan (D-inc) 47%
St Anselm was the most accurate New Hampshire pollster in 2020 (Biden +8 poll vs Biden +7.4 result) pic.twitter.com/H47fSbs611
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 3, 2022
The Georgia race is confusing, with RCP predicting we’ll end November 8 hearing the need for a December 6 runoff between Democrat incumbent Raphael Warnock and GOP candidate Herschel Walker.
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No reason for the Turtle to smile. He’s given plenty of reason to enough of those projected winners to form a very inconvenient voting bloc.
Which will be doing what? Voting against Biden judges?
We are talking about the U.S. Senate not some imaginary body you have in mind where those senators and McConnell aren’t the same side.
You are being obtuse. McConnell has a group of 8-12 Senators who revolve around him and form a consistent bloc in voting and within the r conference. They work to restrain some of the more aggressive members of the r caucus and serve as a brake on legislative initiatives to root out d/prog gains preceding to simply slow the rate of change v halting it entirely.
McConnell pulled funding from Masters and Boldoc simultaneously with them closing the gap in polling. He has been less than overwhelmingly supportive of other candidates. Let’s face it there is a growing division in the r caucus between establishment types led by McConnell and newer members who are more populist in outlook.
There are plenty of times where those folks will not be on the same side within the caucus. No that doesn’t mean giving Biden and d/prog their votes but it does mean that there will be disagreement among the members as to the legislative priorities, the strategies and tactics used to achieve those goals.
First I would like an actual definition of populism when applied to this.
The chance of getting enough senate votes to survive a filibuster is zero, and even if by magic it was done Joe Biden would just use his veto.
While we are in opposition all the power we have is to stop bad things Joe Biden is doing (especially judges and appointments).
When no longer in opposition the legislative agenda will not be set in the senate it will be set by the president.
Note the way Joe Biden used a long sustained carrot and stick approach to Joe Manchin of white house offers of what he would be given if he yielded to the Inflation Reduction Act and public pressure/threats if he didn’t.
Fortunately Joe Biden stupidly broke his promise to Joe Manchin so is unlikely to get another big spending bill passed in the lame duck after the midterms but that is how the agenda is set. The president lays out the legislation to his party and applies his carrot and stick.
Trump did that and won on tax cuts and on his prison bill.
Petty personal fights are the jewel of political reporting but I have never seen anybody here consider Chuck Schumer our political friend and ally; although I have heard plenty of Democrats insisting he is and he needs to be replaced by AOC.
It isn’t that the new r Senate majority won’t oppose the policies of Biden and the d/prog, that isn’t at issue. They will. The real question is not what but rather how.
Senator Scott of FL put out a framework that most of us can get behind. McConnell wouldn’t endorse it. That’s the sort of inter party conflict that’s ahead; resolving differences in the strategy and tactics to be used.
Populist right – short answer is think Ross Perot’s platform, the Tea Party and MAGA blended together.
Very short answer -placing the welfare and betterment of the broad scale American middle class (the center 70% economically) at the forefront of every policy debate.
The first question to be answered iin future policy debate should be; does this benefit these folks or does it benefit Wall St and/or the members of the administrative state/credentialed class?
To be honest, if the new Republican Senators [assuming a completed election and semi-honest count] are elected and want to resist the Leftists, that 8-12 of McConnell’s controlled caucus will vote with the Democrats if he asks them to.
We may be able to resist, but we have to resist from both directions.
I don’t think that will happen, 8 votes to Schumer. 2-4 votes? Maybe.
The conflict isn’t about whether to oppose Biden but the means to be used. McConnell is a r at the end of the day but he is frustrating because he isn’t willing to be as bare knuckle as the d/prog.
There are a few r Senators now and perhaps several more inbound who are happy to be as combative and ruthless as the d/prog. That is what the r base, at least the populist right portion, wants to see.
You don’t think McConnell and his posse will go full Cheney if that’s what it takes to retain his power? I think you’re over-estimating the man’s commitment to the party and the people.
Also, the man is a progressive. Sure, he’s a typical slower, more efficiently and with lower taxes prog, but he’s definitely a prog. (Most of the establishment Republican sorts are.)
Nah. McConnell and his cabal are establishment types pining for the days of yore. Back when a substantial number of d in Congress could be reasoned with say 3-4 decades ago. McConnell reflects the country club r of the past. The sort of Country Gentry who value stability and are reluctant to swing for the fences.
IOW he is a Conservative and the r party base has shifted. We don’t want to conserve the present incarnation of our corrupted institutions. We want to radically reform back to their basic purpose and eliminate some entirely.
McConnell still believes in a ‘go along, get along’ style who’s utility has passed. As the number of Senators who are more populist right grows he will be forced to either change his tactics to be more willing to get concrete results the base wants or be passed over a leader.
As it’s shaping up, maybe not so great for McTurtle and that would be a VERY good thing to get rid of that RINO bastard.
So they will be voting to confirm Biden judges?
I hate to break it to you but we are discussing the United States Senate; the ways they have to attack McConnell is siding with Democrats.
So you think they only way to oppose McConnell is to vote like a traitor?
How about voting him out of leadership?
No senator will do that. If you aim at the king, better make sure it,s permanent. None of them have the backbone to vote for someone else….committee a$$ignment$ are on the line. They will vote him leader again.
Or refusing to vote BS legislation out of committee. Or refusing to deliver their vote to McConnell by voting present if McConnell acts like an arrogant ass delivering ‘my way or the highway’ lectures to fellow Senators who all have an equal voice in that chamber.
Thanks for the responses; sorry I couldn’t respond earlier.
I agree there are some different tactics. However the tactics you have stated you will agree are debatable don’t you? Government shutdowns are something Democrats are willing to do, they are big risks aren’t they? The vitriol here isn’t restricted to here; the same people take the same vitriol to the public square. Fortunately it won’t stop the red wave but in a close election having the public square be where you go to see the Republican Party is against you….
About populism I agree we need to focus more on the problems of the lower classes. I don’t however think anyone on our side (except maybe Vance) has given much thought on how to do that.
Among other things it involves a real assessment of the traditional agenda of the Republican Party that we just didn’t do during the Trump years.
For example it means going over the benefits received vs taxes paid and making a decision of do we still want to be the party of lowering taxes instead of say tax status quo; trying to make currently existing programs work better with their current budgets. To be blunt most of the country (bottom 60%) aren’t paying federal tax. The vast majority of the population are getting a lot more in federal benefits than they pay in federal tax. A vast and overwhelming majority of tax is paid by the top 10%.
Cutting benefits and taxes are things designed to benefit the top, unfortunately I have yet to see “populist” republicans not make that a centerpiece of the agenda (the tax cut and anti-Obamacare pledges by Trump are what caused him to lose parts of the white working class and with it the 2020 election).
McConnell is a rat, and he’s compromised by Communist China, no less than Biden is.
NH would probably be an easy pickup if the Turtle hadn’t pulled media buys and moved them to try to protect Murkowski in Alaska.
I really do look forward to pissing on the Turtle’s grave.
If there a former president who raised over a hundred million dollars that could have gone to those candidates?
If it is bad for McConnell it is bad for Trump to be doing exactly the same thing.
Trump is not in office or have you not noticed, Cocaine Mitch is and his Communist Wife is calling the shots for him at the beck and call of Xi just like Hunter is running his Dad.
All of the money he raised is money that was taken from the midterm election for our side.
I am not holding him up to a lower standard. He had a very good chance to actually be an asset and chose not to be. If McConnell is a bad leader for bad spending choices; Trump is even worst for not giving anything to anyone.
So McConnell shouldn’t spend funds to pick up NH or AZ and instead use them in Alaska to help Murkowski defeat another r in the general?
That makes zero sense unless McConnell wants Murkowski over the other r and if would prefer neither Boldoc nor Masters be elected.
I would surge spending in the battlegrounds if I was him. The point is you can’t say he is bad for giving up on some races but Trump is good when Trump has more funds at his disposal and isn’t helping the Republican side anywhere.
We are likely to experience a red wave; but if the race was going to be remotely close these “MUH TRAITOR ESTABLISHMENT” types would be handing the election to the Democrats like they did in Jan 2020.Placing McConnell’s decisions in the context of Trump not spending at all changes things a lot.
Danny, just a heads up, stop calling our readers names. It’s unseemly and unnecessary. I literally hate to spam your comments because they are usually insightful, but if attack our readers, spam them I will. Find a better way to communicate your ideas, please.
Dear Mary, could you put up a picture of an actual republican in the future?
The next Republican Senate Majority leader should do; sorry if your delusions and desire for a (Democrat bolstering) Republican civil war are coming to naught.
ChinaDanny, doing everything in his power to help ChinaMitch and ChinaBiden to destroy America.
It might be great for Republican politicians.
The jury will be out for a bit whether it’s good for Republican voters.
After the well-deserved ass kicking that is coming they will be expecting handshakes and civility.
If they do, then we know for certain that the electoral paradigm is no longer valid under the Constitution. Thomas Hobbes’ works kick in at that point.
Oops. This should have been a reply to MarkS below. Sorry Scooterjay.
none of these pollsters factor in Democrat cheating. Dems will cheat just enough to hold the House and get a majority in the Senate
You mean we are getting rid of McConnnell? Oh happy days!
If this prediction comes to pass, that will mean the Democrats will have a very narrow window for Dementia Joe to resign and for KH to nominate a new veep. Will Chuck and Nancy go to Joey Demento and ask him to throw in the towel?
Interestingly enough, though, the whore might not get her veep confirmed.
Which means if they then manage to off Harris we are stuck with Pelosi. No thanks.
Best to leave it as is. As bad as Biden is if the Reps control the House and Senate they can blunt most of the worst of Biden’s handlers wet dreams.
This good polling news seems to have triggered Danny boy 😂😂
1. I’m not the person here to encourage a republican civil war
2. at least have the decency to try to refute points the same way I do when reacting to something you say, instead of being condescending (which is generally the attitude of an idiot).
The days of McConnell having free rein and ridding roughshod over the r caucus in the Senate to benefit his personal power base are coming to a close. Adapt or die is the natural order. His choice to adapt or eventually be deposed. If it were me I would cut a deal and go out on my own terms v the humiliation of being thrown out of the Majority Leader’s office. Sooner or later that day is approaching.
No, Danny, you’re the person that readily dismisses your man-crush, Mitch, purposely sabotaging winnable races so you can bitch about posters in LI like they have an inordinate amount of sway over the electorate.
He has pulled money from races to support Murkowski and Liz effing Cheney. Buuuuuut Trump, amirite?
He’s gotta defend his precious.
Try 47 to 53. You can now count Murkowski as a democrat. Then you have Collins, Romney and Capito you essentially have a dem majority again.
We will be counting the number of Biden judges who get confirmed after the next congress is sworn in to see if you are right yes?
Judges are important, but they certainly are not the only measure of conservative success.
And Mitch has not only failed to deliver planks of the conservative platform when he had the power, he has actively undermined those that would actually move the needle back toward freedom.
How about counting the number of times Biden is forced to use a veto? How about using the power of the purse to scale back the size of the Federal govt? Biden can sign off or shut down the govt. His choice.
What most of want is to go on offense and take back the ground previously surrendered to the d/prog. McConnell can be effective in limiting the advance of d/prog by playing defense; I will happily concede that. It’s no longer enough to play defense, it’s past time to go on the offensive and roll back as many d/prog gains as possible.
Mcconnell needs to be thrown out on his ass. He backed the Dem in Disguise Murkowski, you know the one that voted to impeach our last President?
That’s just his latest offense. He has long worked harder to defeat conservatives than he has to defeat Democrats. He and his cronies in the Senate have got to go.
I’d rather see R’s in office than D’s … but I wouldn’t consider the more radical R’s something to be proud of.
If we take the Senate and McConnell is anywhere near the leadership, we might as well have lost.
“More radical”? As in what sort of positions? Are any of the “populist” Republicans out there truly radicals except in the view of progressives working to destroy the Republic-that-was?
I think these polls overstate the coming results, merely because of all the Democrat mail-in ballots already cast in a different environment. I have yet to see any evidence that Republicans have adapted to a modern campaign with mass mail-in balloting – by following up in the large amount of time available to be sure they get cast. My small town Democrat mayor got re-elected last year by a surprising margin over a very credible Republican opponent; and I read that astute management of mail-in ballots was considered key.
I think it’s a mistake to presume that the environment actually shifted recently instead of a whole host of polls lifting their skew to try to save their reputations.
This is accurate. I believe this is going to be similar to what we saw in VA and NJ Gov races in 2021. Where supposedly 15+ point d/prog advantage from 2020 are threatened. There is an undercurrent of anger from Rona, our kids, energy policy, inflation and the frankly borderline totalitarian language being used by prominent d/prog to castigate any dissent.
The polling firms have long used a thumb on the scale to drive polling data. Whether under sample of r or over sample of d/prog or the phrasing of questions. The fact that RCP will be discounting polling orgs that perform poorly and won’t be including them in future RCP average is huge.
Another overlooked factor is the ability for r to have poll watchers present. A long standing ruling by a now deceased Federal Judge (can’t recall the name but I believe NJ or NY can’t remember the district) had prevented effective election monitoring for decades.
2020 was the year it lifted. The Judge kept renewing his order against the National R party but when he died that was the end of it. That ruling effectively prevented the National r party from assisting directly with poll watching.
As the r party builds a core of volunteers both lay people and Attorneys the scenes such a Philadelphia where r poll watchers were locked out will be overcome. The importance can’t be overstated. The r will build a functional elections law fare operation to rival the d/prog.
To get in a used out of Cook’s you have to shift most of their predictions one step to the right as they usually predict one step to the left of what actually happened or at least that’s what it seems like.
Make no mistake, crime in New York is on the ballot. Front of mind.
The recent NYC rape suspect had 25 prior arrests, out on the streets, before he was arrested for the heinous crime in connection with the rape of a jogger in the West Village on Thursday
Imagine the aftermath should Zeldin win the Governor race, and the unthinkable happens in the US Senate should Joe Pinion ride Zeldin’s coat tails and pull the upset on Tuesday?
Assuming Democrats prevail … Josh Shapiro has told the Mayor of Scranton she will get the Fetterman seat if he falls ill, per PA staffer
It appears Democrat Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman’s “Trump-voting Republican” parents are not Trump-voting Republicans, but card-carrying Democrats. In what seems to be an attempt to paint himself as an everyman candidate who is more Pennsylvanian than partisan, Fetterman apparently talked his parents into claiming they are Trump voters and Republicans in one of his senate campaign ads.
Why does the lead photo for an article about good news for Republicans show a smiling Democrat?
A smiling chinaman.