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Politico, Cook Political Move Arizona Senate Race to Toss Up

Politico, Cook Political Move Arizona Senate Race to Toss Up

Biden losing support in Arizona is one major cause of GOP candidate Blake Masters’ rise against incumbent Democrat Sen. Mark Kelly.

Politico and Cook Political Report moved the Arizona Senate Race between incumbent Democrat Sen. Mark Kelly and Republican Blake Masters to Toss Up from Lean Democrat.

These moves so close to Election Day are big deals!

Usually, the candidate raising and spending the most money will win due to exposure. The Republicans started “to write off” the Senate race as the “Senate Leadership Fund pulled their remaining ad buys in Arizona.” Peter Thiel and Heritage Foundation-backed groups pledged “another $5 million to the race.”

From Labor Day to now, Kelly and the Democrats spent $44.4 million to the Republicans $22.7 million.

Cook Political changed its rating due to private polling, especially since support for Biden drops in Arizona:

Biden defeated Trump by just 0.3 points, 49.2%-48.9%. And with Biden now polling far behind his 2020 percentage, even if Kelly outpaces the president by more this year, it could still not be enough.

Talking with multiple sources this week, we have found across the board that Democrats acknowledge this is once again a margin-of-error race. We have seen tightening public polling as well. When we changed our rating in Kelly’s favor last month, the incumbent was ahead by 8.7 points in FiveThirtyEight’s average. Today, that lead has shrunk to 3.6 points.

I’ve noticed Kelly has made the border crisis his main talking point, calling out fellow Democrats and Biden for ignoring the crisis.

People need to follow the border crisis in Arizona, not just Texas. The fentanyl surge affects Arizona more, with people calling the state Fentazona.

Cook Political is not 100% secure behind the Toss Up, though:

Even with this change, we have a caveat — of all the races we now have in Toss Up, this one still looks the best for Democrats. We might put a pinkie on the scale for Kelly at the end of the day — and many Republican strategists would as well. But as it stands now, the race could go either way — and if Arizona is falling, many states before it already have, most likely, including Nevada and maybe Georgia. If it ends up being a wave night, do not be surprised to see surprise results like in Arizona, which means we are not talking about if Republicans have won back Senate control, but how large their majority could be beyond 51-49.

Politico agrees that Biden’s drop in Arizona is responsible for the rise of Masters, but the “electoral environment and relative strength at the top of the ticket” has also helped him:

But Masters is being buoyed by the electoral environment and relative strength at the top of the ticket. While it’s true that Kelly and [GOP gubernatorial candidate Kari] Lake are running stronger campaigns than their opponents, Lake and Masters are running as more of a ticket than the Democrats. Billboards and yard signs dotted around the Phoenix metro area read “VOTE LAKE & BLAKE.” And at Lake’s well-attended campaign events, she often shouts out her the Senate candidate in her stump speech.

It’s common for Arizona’s elections to go down to the wire. Kelly led GOP candidate Martha McSally in the special election two years ago by double digits on Labor Day. He only won by two points.

Politico litters the rest of the article with the usual attacks on the Republicans:

And this year’s GOP ticket, populated largely with candidates who’ve sowed and promoted falsehoods about the last election in Arizona, is banking even harder to the right. At an event earlier this week at a Phoenix megachurch with most of the statewide and legislative candidates, Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.), who is seeking reelection in a Phoenix-area swing district, previewed the combative posture House Republicans will take with the Biden administration, promising to go “far beyond defunding” federal agencies.

“We’re gonna have some government shutdowns. We need you to explain to our brothers and sisters out there that there’s nothing wrong with that government shutdown,” Schweikert told the crowd of Republican activists. “That is how the system is supposed to work.”

Meanwhile, state Rep. Mark Finchem, the Republican nominee for secretary of state, appeared to suggest that if his opponent, Democrat Adrian Fontes, wins next month, Lake could face physical threats since the position is first in the gubernatorial line of succession in case of a vacancy.

“Do you think that makes her a target?” Finchem asked the crowd of hypothetical ticket-splitting victories. “Oh, yeah.”

Left-leaning polling firm Data for Progress also found Kelly and Masters in a tie and Lake leading Democrat candidate Katie Hobbs:

The survey of 893 likely voters in Arizona conducted from Oct. 11 to Oct. 17 found that 47 percent of respondents would vote for Kelly and 47 percent would vote for Masters, with 4 percent not sure and 3 percent supporting Libertarian Marc Victor.

The poll also found that Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake is leading her Democratic opponent Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs by 4 percentage points.

Can you imagine how the firm felt when only 42% of the respondents favored Biden, while 49% preferred Trump?

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Comments

I understand that PayPal has quietly reinstated the $2,500 “fine” for misinformation. PayPal is a threat to democracy

This is just the pollsters and the media rushing to correct their biased polls before the actual numbers make them look stupid.

Translation: Politico thinks Masters will probably win absent substantial vote ‘fortification’.

Kelly’s wife Gabby Giffords was just named 2023 Pasadena Rose Parade Marshall. So all it takes these days to be parade marshall is to get shot in the head and be married to a Senator?

I am so tired of “horse race” articles.

    henrybowman in reply to txvet2. | October 27, 2022 at 12:25 pm

    Maybe yes, maybe no… Given that the RNC had written our boy off and shut off their money tap, I was loathe to piss money down an abandoned mineshaft, but given this news, I broke down and sent him a bump. So they sort of perform a service.

      RNC hasn’t been the biggest problem. That would be reserved for the Turtle, who controls the Senate campaign pot and has been pulling funds away from anybody who says bad things about him. Such is the power of the Turtle, and why he’s still Majority Leader. Hopefully, enough of them will win to throw him out on his butt.

        Subotai Bahadur in reply to txvet2. | October 27, 2022 at 7:46 pm

        “away from anybody who says bad things about him.”

        Or who would stand and fight against the Left if they are elected.

        Subotai Bahadur

        henrybowman in reply to txvet2. | October 27, 2022 at 8:33 pm

        Absolutely unjustifiable:

        McConnell’s super PAC (known as the Senate Leadership Fund) is spending more than $5 MILLION to protect anti-gun RINO Lisa Murkowski from her pro-gun Republican challenger in Alaska.

        Worst of all, he secured the funds for Murkowski by *CANCELING* his ads supporting General Don Bolduc who’s polling ONLY 1 POINT behind anti-gun Democrat Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire.

        In other words, McConnell would rather let Kamala Harris keep her 50-50 majority than see Lisa Murkowski replaced by a pro-gun Republican.

        Please call McConnell’s office at 202-224-2541 to tell him to support pro-gun candidates like General Don Bolduc who can actually FLIP seats controlled by known anti-gunners…

        No matter where you live, McConnell’s actions affect you, because he jeopardizes our ability to remove Kamala Harris’ majority. And that means we will have a harder time stopping Biden’s gun control and his anti-gun judicial nominations.

        (Mailer today from GOA)

The problem with Mark Kelly is he hasn’t done jack squat to serve the best interests of his State and his constituents. He is a nothing more than a reliable d/prog vote for anything the d/prog party puts in front of him.

He was elected largely because he capitalized on sympathy for his Wife being shot by a lunatic and him being an Astronaut. The sheen has worn off those two points and he has zero accomplishments to offer up from his term to the voters.

    henrybowman in reply to CommoChief. | October 27, 2022 at 12:29 pm

    And, not to put too fine an edge on it, he’s point man for his wife’s major national gun-grab organization, and of all places should not be representing fergodsake Arizona in Congress. (And he wouldn’t ever have been, had the McCain Mafia not insisted on jamming a fellow Mafia member into that seat after Republican voters had already rejected her once.)

      CommoChief in reply to henrybowman. | October 27, 2022 at 2:26 pm

      Yes indeed. The peal clutching establishment types were quite happy to have a candidate parade his Wife’s tragic and senseless shooting as something to be used for political gain. This was the one they tried to pin on Palin.

        henrybowman in reply to CommoChief. | October 27, 2022 at 8:28 pm

        We used to (unkindly) refer to this as the “pull-toy factor.” As in Sarah Brady parading James as her “pull toy” for two decades, every time she went to a state legislature to testify for tighter and tighter gun control.

When Kelly voted to hire 87,000 IRS agents and voted against hiring 18,000 border patrol agents he was toast. This is being pointed out in numerous ads in the state…. He foolish sates in his ads “I vote for Arizonans first”

Arizona and Texas have to be ground zero for the bad policies of the Brandon administration. Absolutely nothing will change if Democrats retain control of Congress. How can this particular race be even close?