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Inflation: All Items Index Increased 8.2% Over the Last 12 Months

Inflation: All Items Index Increased 8.2% Over the Last 12 Months

Inflation is scorching hot.

***Adding information as I go through the report.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in September from August. The all items index rose 8.2% over the last 12 months.

The all items without energy and food went up 6.6% in the past 12 months, 0.4% from August to September.

How will President Joe Biden explain the September CPI?

I guess the administration will overlook the 12-month numbers because everything went up. Biden will likely concentrate on the energy numbers, which continued to decrease in September from August:

  • Energy overall: -2.1%
  • Energy commodities overall: -4.7%
  • Gasoline: -4.9%
  • Fuel oil: -2.7%

Everything else is bad news for America and Biden. I’m not going to use sob stories or analysis from experts. I’m going to give you the numbers because they speak for themselves. It’s something all of us feel every day.

The food at home index from August to September increased by 0.7%. Over the past 12 months? 13%!

  • Cereal and bakery products: 16.2%
  • Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs: 9%
  • Dairy and related products: 15.9%
  • Fruits and veggies: 10.4%

The following numbers are all over the past 12 months.

How about another breakdown? The holidays are coming up! Let’s look at some of the essentials we need as we start the baking season.

  • Flour and prepared flour mixes: 24.2%
  • Eggs: 30.5% (actually decreased 3.5% from August to September!)
  • Milk: 15.2%
  • Other uncooked poultry including turkey: 17%
  • Potatoes: 17.5%
  • Sugar and sugar substitutes: 17.1%
  • Butter: 26.6%
  • Margarine: 44%
  • Spices, seasonings, condiments, sauces: 13.8%

Food away from home increased by 8.5%, especially food at work and schools.

  • Full service meals and snacks: 8.8%
  • Limited service meals and snacks: 7.1%
  • Food at employee sites and schools: 91.4%
  • Food from vending machines and mobile vendors: 7.2%
  • Other food away from home: 5.4%

While the energy prices went down from August to September, it increased over the past 12 months:

  • Energy overall: 19.8%
  • Energy commodities: 19.7%
  • Fuel oil and other fuels: 39.9%
  • Fuel oil: 58.1%
  • Propane, kerosene, and firewood: 12.8%
  • Motor fuel: 18.8%
  • Gasoline (all types): 18.2%
  • Gasoline, unleaded regular: 18%
  • Gasoline, unleaded midgrade: 18.3%
  • Gasoline, unleaded premium: 19.4%
  • Other motor fuels: 49%
  • Energy services: 19.8%
  • Electricity: 15.5%
  • Utility (piped) gas service: 33.1%

Services less energy services went up 6.7%. This includes housing costs:

  • Shelter: 6.6%
  • Rent of shelter: 6.7%
  • Rent of primary residence: 7.2%
  • Lodging away from home: 2.9%
  • Housing at school, excluding board: 2.6%
  • Other lodging away from home including hotels and motels: 3.1%
  • Owners’ equivalent rent of residences: 6.7%

Numbers in other sectors that stuck out to me:

  • Health insurance: 28.2%
  • Public transportation: 27.1%
  • Airline fares: 42.9%
  • Delivery services: 16.4%

The CPI report also breaks down the numbers by region. The South and the West felt the largest percentage change over the last 12 months, especially the Tampa area (10.5%) and Dallas area (9.2%).

Perspective:

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Comments

Looks like the soon-to-be-announced social security COLA will be 8.5-8.7% for next year.

    LibraryGryffon in reply to Pasadena Phil. | October 13, 2022 at 9:16 am

    So it won’t come anywhere near covering price increases.

    I was figuring inflation closer to 15% based on trips to the store.

    Was hoping for the 9%
    Hot dogs are up 30% here!

      Wiped out that 16 cent July 4th savings from last year didn’t it? LOL, democrats should be deported to north korea.

    rhhardin in reply to Pasadena Phil. | October 13, 2022 at 9:44 am

    SS COLA is mandated so that Congress can’t reduce benefits through inflation, and it makes SS a more secure insurance policy that you won’t outlive the income. They do have to raise the retirement age though. A longer life means you have to work longer too, to balance the number of workers to the number of retirees they support.

      Life expectancy is going down. By two years during Covid. Who knows how many future vaccine-related deaths we are heading for. The obesity epidemic is also not a good thing. I plan to live to 120 just to screw the government. With the actuarial numbers needing to be revised now, I would probably need to live to 150. Making statements like that tempt God’s love of irony.

      MattMusson in reply to rhhardin. | October 13, 2022 at 11:41 am

      SSN was originally designed with the provision that if it ever hit Pay as You Go status, everyone would take a 20% cut in payouts. This type of inflation ensures that we will hit that point very soon.

      Everyone collecting SSN expect you will be hit with a 20% cut in the next 5 years.

        You are making some assumptions here that are almost certainly false. It is isn’t just a simple mathematical calculation. Younger people are going to be required to pay more. And we lose an entire generation to the Trust Baby lifestyle where nobody works and leaving that to the underground economy of sub-minimum wage workers who pay no taxes, their generation will be cut off of any safety net. I really doubt this government will survive much longer and the one that replaces it will either put everyone on welfare or secure the interests of those who contributed to the social security system their entire lives.

          rhhardin in reply to Pasadena Phil. | October 13, 2022 at 1:20 pm

          SS is paid out of general revenue. There’s no money socked away to run out of. The government must instantly return to the economy all the money it takes in lest the money supply fall. So at most the SS fund always holds IOUs.

          They could continue to pay it indefinitely out of general revenue. The constraint is that the workers working have to be willing to support all the retirees, which will depend on there being some suitable balance in their respective numbers, the hook being that the workers will get the same benefit when they retire.

          henrybowman in reply to Pasadena Phil. | October 13, 2022 at 2:00 pm

          “And we lose an entire generation to the Trust Baby lifestyle where nobody works and leaving that to the underground economy of sub-minimum wage workers who pay no taxes, their generation will be cut off of any safety net.”

          Huh? There are no lockboxes, there is no SS trust account. Money comes in and immediately goes out to retirees. The sub-minimum wage workers who pay no taxes will be cutting off the safety net of CURRENT retirees, never mind their own.

      Ironclaw in reply to rhhardin. | October 13, 2022 at 3:26 pm

      I don’t expect SS to even exist by the time I retire, that’s still about 20 years away.

    I just got back from my local grocery store, Hy-Vee, in the Midwest, I seriously don’t understand what you people are complaining about with high food prices. I purchased 5 ounce bacon wrapped select prime sirloin beef tenderloins for $1.99 each. Bone in pork chops (Iowa chops) at least 1 inch thick are $5.00 a pound. Lean ground pork is $5.00 per pound. Eggs (large, brown, free range, organic) are $3.29 per dozen, Whole chickens are $1.19 per pound. Butter was on sale for 1.99 a pound. For the adventurous, ground lamb from local farmers is 9.99 per pound. I just filled up my 1,000 gallon LP gas tank for heating this winter, for a little more than $1,000. Gasoline is $3.69 a gallon. I could go on and on. Maybe you guys should move to the Midwest.

    JohnSmith100 in reply to Pasadena Phil. | October 13, 2022 at 8:09 pm

    I am outfitting cargo trailers for an out of state move. etrack and accessories are up 50%. ratchet tiedown straps have doubled, Shelving has been hard to get, it had been $139, now it is $220. An inhaler that as costing me $35 a month is now $100. A sheet of plywood that was $35 is now $90. There are lots more examples, very little in that 8.x% category.

Well on top of this I guess the next economic number to come out later this month will be the third quarter growth number. If negative it means 3 straight quarters of negative economic growth. Vote Democrat!

The Fed has to withdraw dollars from the economy fast enough to prevent wage increases. At the moment the price rises are allocating a goods shortage to the best uses. If wages increase to cover the price rises, then you get an actual inflation because the shortage is still there and allocation has to happen at an even higher price.

    Massinsanity in reply to rhhardin. | October 13, 2022 at 10:03 am

    Real wages are down 18 months in a row. Wage growth, if that was the point you are attempting to make in this gibberish, is not the problem.

      rhhardin in reply to Massinsanity. | October 13, 2022 at 10:17 am

      It’s not inflation but a shortage. If wage increases happen to cover it, then it would be a real inflation. So the Fed has to prevent wage increases.

        Massinsanity in reply to rhhardin. | October 13, 2022 at 11:14 am

        Do you ever read what you type?

        CommoChief in reply to rhhardin. | October 13, 2022 at 11:34 am

        There is a shortage in many products, that’s undeniable. The knock on impacts (secondary and tertiary) of the multitude of policy failures during Rona are responsible as the straw.

        Getting to the point where the economy was not resilient enough to deal with policy errors during Rona were another series of policy failures. Choose to allow manufacturing base to be outsourced and overly dependent on just in time supply systems and we are vulnerable to interruption of that supply chain.

        Same for pharmaceuticals, precursor chemicals and PPE during a pandemic. The globalist adherents forget that Nations act in their own interests in a crisis; see China and PPE shortage. The globalists have a mercantilist mindset towards producers of commodities. See AG production in the US and the tension between cattle ranchers and the highly concentrated meat packers; just four companies control about 85% of the market.

        We.see the same foolishness in energy policy. We don’t allow robust development of new fields or even completion of of previously permitted projects; Keystone. Then our leaders want other producers like Saudi to provide the oil and Nat Gas that the West refuses to develop and bring to market from their own reserves.

        All that to point out yes we do have shortages and that does cause increased prices as the market searches for the equilibrium price point. However, the govt has used fiscal policy to send massive amounts of artificial money into the economy via stimulus and bone headed payment deferral; rent, loans.

        Now CA is sending stimulus checks to offset the results of the bad policy CA govt chose which helped create the fuel shortage. That will be inflationary. Just as the previous federal stimmy checks were.

        As to wage increases. The labor market is still adapting to the impact of Rona. Many families discovered they could get by on one income with their spouse staying home and doing a side hustle or part time job. Many were either forced into or chose early retirement due to Rona policies.

        There is then a shortage of skilled workers in many fields and these workers will command increased wages. They will find another employer to pay them market price if their current employer refuses. Some lower skilled jobs will be automated or eliminated. Overall wages may be reduced but individuals who have needed skills will get higher wages.

          Peabody in reply to CommoChief. | October 13, 2022 at 12:53 pm

          You need to look a little deeper. There are silver linings all over the place.

          randian in reply to CommoChief. | October 14, 2022 at 1:31 am

          It will depend on the industry. I’m a software engineer. I hate their politics, but Google and Facebook were the market leaders by far in compensation packages, and both have announced hiring freezes. That will seriously impact offers as the rest of the market no longer has to compete with them.

Inflation has *inertia* behind it. Every action the current administration has done from the moment they took office has fed the fire, from choking off oil drilling to crushing regulations to massive taxpayer dollar dumps to their favorite political contributors. If *tomorrow* we had President DeSantis step into the office with Newt Gingrich as Speaker of the House and (fill in your favorite fiscal conservative) in the Senate, with a 2/3 majority in both houses, it would take well over a year to bring inflation back down to normal levels. Stuff on fire doesn’t un-fire well, and the arsonists we saw elected two years ago have plenty of our fuel to burn.

Well, it is fuel oil season, and the prices have popped up a buck a gallon since I bought it in August. The area average is about $5.35/gal and rising.

It should really become interesting around the beginning of November.

Thanks, Brandon.

Gas prices are up 10% here since the first of the month, so October ain’t going to be better

Progressive prices (PP) where the market is distorted through single/central/monopolistic solutions and not so novel Green (i.e. naive, raw) deals.

Pretty much everything that I buy has gone up 30%. Anything that was $4.49 a year ago is now $5.99. Soda’s which used to be (4) 6-packs for $10 are now 4/13. My 16oz chocomilk went from $1.19 to 1.69. These numbers, to me, are the most egregious example of “don’t trust your lying eyes.”

And the irony is that those whose pay went from $12 to $15, an increase of 25%, are now buying less with more. Perhaps that was a part of the plan to dumb down schools. It isn’t that math be hard, but, math be problematic. (no pun intended and not even noticed until after I typed it) 🙁

“The all items without energy and food …”

“All items.” Bogus to begin with. No wonder it’s so easy to cook the numbers and mislead the sheep.

    Peabody in reply to alien. | October 13, 2022 at 1:09 pm

    You don’t expect them to serve “raw data” do you? They must first go through it with a cherry picker to eliminate anything unpalatable, cook and flavor it in order to make it appetizing—then serve it to the masses.

Don’t forget that since the 1970’s the measurement of inflation has been changed to reduce the number. For example, a reduced size at the same price is zero inflation. Similarly, substituting a sirloin steak for filet mignon at the same price is zero. It is not a “fixed basket” any more.

The really scary part is that food inflation, and availability, problems are only starting to be felt. The lag time between planting, harvesting, transportation to market is significant. Look out in North America and prepare to starve in the third world.

    A surprisingly good article over the weekend in the IndyStar on local farmers . One beef producer I personally know was highlighted

    Farmers costs have skyrocketed since spring, along with shortages of fertilizer, chemicals and tractor parts. A 3 day fix on a machine ends up taking 45 days, missing the window of opportunity for production

    So, theyre forced to cut costs on tillage, land maintenance, and repairs

    This year’s crops are just now starting their way through the pipeline, and all the costs to get those to the grocery have skyrocketed.

    With lowered land maintenance, comes higher erosion and soil deprivation that will take many years to remedy. Not to mention lower yields. And, heaven forbid, we could just have bad weather next year.

    Next year will be even worse. Some say they may squeak through next year by cutting costs to the bone, but after that….? Young farmers are shying away from the uncertain future on the family farm. And many farmers will plain go broke.

    We’ll be paying for this for many years to come and the pain at the checkout now is nothing compared to what it will be next year

    This cascade of negative effects is squarely on Bidens shoulders and not from any natural disaster. This didn’t have to happen!

    JohnSmith100 in reply to TrickyRicky. | October 13, 2022 at 8:31 pm

    America first, the third world has been reproducing beyond their means as long as I can remember. As long as we bail them out, that will continue.

    Americans should not suffer for those people, including F ing illegals.

Am I the only one that woke up on a January morning in 2021, yelling at the radio that this will lead to recession?

My house insurance just went up 37% over last year’s premiums.
Those who do not remember Depressions are condemned to repeat them.

Colonel Travis | October 13, 2022 at 1:03 pm

Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs: 9%

This is deceptive. Nothing in this category has gone up in price by merely 9%. It’s significantly higher. Or any other category by their respective percentages. I’m not calling out Mary. Just saying there is more to the end price for the customer than the government telling us about 9% inflation.

It’s bad out there.

Eggs: 30.5% (actually decreased 3.5% from August to September!)

Right. Well that -3.5% must have been a blip because eggs at Walmart today were $3.25/dz.

Not to mention that a year ago eggs were under $2/dz.

That’s a lot more than 30.5%. More like well over over 60%.

I no longer believe any number coming from the government. Haven’t for awhile. All government stats have been politicized. And that attitude has been considerably ‘fortified’ over the last few years.

You know where else in the world people don’t believe anything the the government tells them? Third world banana republics and Marxist socialist dictatorships. Like the old Soviet Union.

BierceAmbrose | October 13, 2022 at 3:43 pm

If only anybody had seen this coming, and what created it.