Remember how, on August 28, 2022, I told you Operation Demoralize is Back:
I understand how demoralizing the current situation is. The border is wide open. The full apparatus of the criminal justice system from DOJ to FBI to state prosecutors are weaponized for Democrat political purposes. To his (dis)credit, Biden has been able to do substantial and long-lasting damage to the country with just a 50/50 Senate.Yet the narrative as recently as a month ago was that a red wave was coming in November.That has changed. There is a concerted media effort to create the counter-narrative that the red wave has failed….It happens every election cycle. Operation Demoralize.What is it? “The media swarms and lies. Tells you it’s over, wants you to give up. Happens every single time.”
I’m not predicting specific election outcomes, but it’s pretty clear that Operation Demoralize has failed. The recent “likely voter” as opposed to “registered voter” generic ballot polling points to a strong Republican lead in a measure that has a history of predicting overall control of congress:
The ABC/WaPo poll released today is particularly gruesome for Democrats, particularly on their supposed ace-in-the-hole issue, abortion. Turns out on issues that motivate voters to actually vote, it’s not top priority:
On issues, the survey finds broad opposition to the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling eliminating a constitutional right to abortion and a big Democratic advantage in trust to handle the issue. But there’s no sign it’s impacting propensity to vote in comparison with other issues: four rank higher in importance and two of them – the economy overall and inflation specifically – work strongly in the GOP’s favor….But if abortion keeps the Republicans from entirely nationalizing the election around the economy, it doesn’t defang the public’s economic discontent. Seventy-four percent say the economy is in bad shape, up from 58 percent in the spring after Biden took office. The GOP leads the Democrats by 16 points in trust to handle the economy overall and by 19 points in trust to handle inflation.
There are other details in the poll that in isolation may not have significantly large samples to be reliable in isolation, but do mirror what we’ve seen elsewhere, such as Republican strength with independents and the closing of the black and hispanic gaps:
And another result is notable: Among those living in congressional districts that are rated as at least somewhat competitive by ABC’s FiveThirtyEight (neither solid Republican nor solid Democratic), registered voters favor Republican candidates by a wide 55-34 percent – nearly as big as the Republican lead in solid GOP districts (+24 points). Democrats lead by 35 points in solid Democratic districts, pointing to a potential overvote where they’re most prevalent….– Beyond differential turnout, weakness in midterm vote preference among Black and Hispanic voters may compound Democratic concerns. While Democratic House candidates lead their Republican opponents by 61 points among Black adults who are registered to vote, that compares with at least 79-point margins in exit polls in the past four midterms. This survey’s sample of Hispanics who are registered to vote is too small for reliable analysis, but the contest among them looks much closer than recent Democratic margins – 40 points in 2018, 27 points in 2014 and 22 points in 2010.
Add to that the swing Senate races that have tightened or Republicans even pulled ahead (AZ, PA, GA, WI, NV) and the generic and national polling seems to be consistent with Republicans having a very good shot at taking back the Senate.
To what should be attributed the turnaround from the dismal days of late August? First and foremost, the media narrative of a Democrat comeback was an illusion fed by garbage “registered voter” polling by garbage firms. So it never was there to begin with.
My gut also tells me that Biden’s “red” speech also was a wake up call and motivator. He was so over the top in his dehumanization of “MAGA Republicans,” and his DOJ/FBI are so politicized and weaponized, that there has been a great awakening. Maybe the only success of the speech was to awaken sleeping Republican voters.
So no matter how you slice it, there is no reason to be demoralized. Cautious and worried about the usual media/Democrat shenanigans and attempts at an October suprise – yes, that’s always a concern.
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