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Finnish economist: “I am telling you people that the situation in Europe is much worse than many understand”

Finnish economist: “I am telling you people that the situation in Europe is much worse than many understand”

Says Tuomas Malinen. Adds Murtaza Hussain of The Intercept: “If you turned the electricity off for a few months in any developed Western society 500 years of supposed philosophical progress about human rights and individualism would quickly evaporate like they never happened.”

So I saw this tweet from Murtaza Hussain of The Intercept:

If you turned the electricity off for a few months in any developed Western society 500 years of supposed philosophical progress about human rights and individualism would quickly evaporate like they never happened.

It reminded me of my post on January 25, 2022, “There are only nine meals between mankind and anarchy, in which I tracked down the source of the phrase:

I thought it might be one of those phrases that really had no provable attribution, but nope, I found it in the digitized archives of Cosmopolitan maintained by various universities, in the March 1906 issue in an article titled, The Day of Discontent.

I downloaded the full article  into a pdf, so you can read the whole thing. You’re welcome. They were talking about troubles of the time, social discontent, part of which related to food but also the rise of socialism. It’s worth a read because so much parallels current problems.

But, it appears the saying may not be original to the Cosmopolitan discussion. The phrase was used by Lewis in the New York Journal in 1896 (pdf.):

“the only barrier between us and anarchy is the last nine meals we’ve had. It may be taken as axiomatic that a starving man is never a good citizen.”

After applying the phrase to the relatively minor pandemic supply chain problems, I concluded:

Don’t worry. I’m not panicking. But I am Prepping For The Worst, I’d rather not have to fight people in the supermarket for the few boxes of porridge left on the shelves.

We don’t know where the challenge will come from, there are unknown unknowns that could surprise us. But some of the causes won’t surprise us, we see them coming.

There is a thin line in society, between food and anarchy, freedom and repression, liberty and tyranny, safety and street violence. It’s thinner than we want to admit, and it’s being pushed to its limits on purpose by ideologies that want to deconstruct our society. Tearing down society is a dangerous game.

That thin line is being obliterated in Europe, which put heavy reliance on Russian natural gas and “renewables,” leaving those countries vulnerable to a gas cut off, which Putin now is implementing as retaliation for Ukraine sanctions.

We have been covering the coming cold, dark winter in Europe, particularly Germany, in great detail.

Sounds bad, huh?

It might be worse. I saw this tweet thread by Finnish economist and professor Tuomas Malinen:

I am telling you people that the situation in #Europe is much worse than many understand. We are essentially on the brink of another banking crisis, a collapse of our industrial base and households, and thus on the brink of the collapse of our economies. Short thread. 1/4

We are also totally at the mercy of the authorities, and we have very little knowledge what they have planned. Will they be able to stop the onset of the banking crisis, yet again? I don’t know, but I am doubtful. 2/

In any case the speed of deterioration is massive now, and it’s only a matter of time, when markets catch up. I am betting that we still have few weeks (months at max.) before “mayhem” truly begins. Take precautionary measures. Stock:

1. Cash.

2. Food.

3. Water.

4. Wood (if you have a stove).

5. Other necessities.

No harm will come from preparation, if somehow miraculously we can avoid the onset of an outright economic collapse. You just have more cash (no meaningful interest in banks), food, water and wood. 4/4

It can happen there, and here. It’s not just energy independence, it’s also energy security and diversification.

The “Green New Deal” and similar net-zero initiatives, combined with increased reliance on an unreliable electric grid, are a national suicide pact.

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Comments

A new version of a festive Christmas song is in the offing… “Baby It’s Cold Inside”. Until the movers and shakers of the West live and feel the life of the average person…nothing will happen. Until every “life boat” is holed and the elite must live as we do… nothing will happen. No accountability cannot be allowed anymore.

    MattMusson in reply to alaskabob. | September 8, 2022 at 7:26 am

    An Energy Induced Great Depression is coming for Europe.

    There will be blood in Western Europe. There could be color revolutions. Sri Lanka was the Canary in the coal mine.

      Now, as to the Czech protests that took place a while back. Note that the protests were to get the government to help ordinary people with their coming heating bills. And, there was some anti NATO talk. Some very gullible conservative commentators like Rod Dreher and the whole pro Russian, anti Ukraine coalition of losers, has played this up like it is some example of the coming collapse of the whole of Europe, as the Russians put pressure on them. This, of course is precisely what Russian intelligence wants people to think – that all of Europe is in ferment, all of Europe is ready to blow up, blah, blah, blah. Honestly, this is pure Russian propagnda. Russia has spent billions in the last few years infiltrating European countries and infiltrating European conservative parties. They know their only hope is to get trouble started in Europe. So the Russians instigated this Czech protest a few weeks ago. The Anti NATO stuff is right out of the Russian playbook. Here, take a look at this study of Russian influence in Czech Republic. It’s very sad to see decent people taken in by Russian propaganda moves, but in the internet age, Russia has definitely identified gullible people who, in order to make themselves sound brave or something are willing to buy into Russian propaganda.
      https://www.researchgate.net/publication/350690133_Russian_Influence_in_the_Czech_Republic_as_a_Grey_Zone_Case_Study

      docduracoat in reply to MattMusson. | September 12, 2022 at 3:20 pm

      Is no one going to mention the truly phenomenal amounts of natural gas Israel has discovered off its coastline?
      Biden canceled the financing to build the pipeline from Israel to Cyprus.
      However the plans are now to send the gas to Egypt, liquefy it, and ship it to Europe by boat.
      Also, nothing stops the Euros from building more nuclear power plants.
      If they truly believe in global warming, then. Unclear is the only answer

    fredx3 in reply to alaskabob. | September 9, 2022 at 9:09 am

    Sorry, Professor Jacobsen is merely scaremongering here. IF the Europeans were really in dire straits, don’t you think we would have heard about it? There is no real information in this post by Jacobsen. Some Finnish economist said something? Whoop de do.
    Look – Europe already has stored 80 percent of the natural gas they are going to need for the coming winter. Get it? They stored ahead of time, then use all during the winter. The other 20 percent will be purchased from other countries.
    Nobody in Europe is going to freeze this winter. Time to stop believing the scaremongers who need a few clicks and like to get you riled up. The only problem for Europe is, replacing Russian gas is going to be more expensive. So heating bills are going up this winter. Way, way up. But there will be plenty of gas for heating. Governments are going to pitch in and limit heating bills for ordinary people. So – prices will go up this winter. People will be urged to limit their use of heating fuels, both to save money and to make sure supplies last.
    Oh! Everyone! Get scared! They looked under the bushes and found ONE Finnish economist. Did he just graduate from school? Is he taking meds? Inquiring minds want to know. But let’s grow up a bit and stop spreading false stories, just because we have a website, and need scary content to make people read.
    Yes, the Europeans were fools for relying on Russia. Yes, Trump was right about their reliance on Russia. But must we spread falsehoods just to jack up some crowd whose lives are boring and they need jacking up and a reason to feel betrayed?

      jsolbakken in reply to fredx3. | September 9, 2022 at 1:42 pm

      The reason I’m gloating over Putin’s victory is because as a Californian I’m overjoyed to see that there are people stupider than we are out there.
      I’m a big supporter of Democracy, because, I believe that people should get everything they vote for, in spades, good and hard, until it grinds them to powder.
      I never imagined I’d be on the side of a Russian gangster, but, I am, not because the gangster is so great, but, because his enemies are so disgusting and pathetic and unworthy of respect. The gangster does not deserve to win, but, his enemies absolutely deserve to lose, bigly.

      gospace in reply to fredx3. | September 9, 2022 at 6:43 pm

      Not as rosy a picture as you envision. Here’s a chrat of European NG storage:
      https://www.intellinews.com/how-many-days-of-gas-consumption-are-in-europe-s-storage-tanks-250065/

      The US has more storage than all of Europe. And we produce NG. Our major problem is NIMBY governors have decided they don’t want pipelines built. Distribution, not storage and production are limitations.

    5. Other necessities: Firearm (and know how to use it) and ammo.

Let’s follow the Europe model. What could possibly go wrong?

How long before the Europeans pressure Zelensky to negotiate with Putin to end the conflict, under threat of completely abandoning him and Ukraine?

How long before they tell Brandon to FO?

    Zelenskyy won’t listen. They will be left with nothing but to take a side. They will either attack Russia (and risk Putin nuking them) or they’ll attack Ukraine (and risk having the press say mean things about them).

    OR they will attack the Middle East (Saudi?) looking for oil.

      MattMusson in reply to irv. | September 8, 2022 at 7:28 am

      Zelensky could accidentally destroy the Russian gas pipeline running through Ukraine, cutting off Western Europe’s retreat.

        artichoke in reply to MattMusson. | September 8, 2022 at 12:50 pm

        There’s always Nordstream 2 which Ukraine can’t touch. It could magically start working again, emerge from bankruptcy, etc. if Europe would stop fighting the country putting the gas in the pipeline. But nah, that’s too obvious.

    gonzotx in reply to JHogan. | September 7, 2022 at 11:04 pm

    It’s the globalist that are keeping this war going with American taxpayer money

    We are the world

      fredx3 in reply to gonzotx. | September 9, 2022 at 9:11 am

      Nonsense. You can tell when someone blames “the globalists” they really have no idea what is going on. Blaming “the globalists” is just buying into some conspiracy theory, because you don’t know what is really going on. So you buy into a conspiracy theory where everyone is against you.

    Rupert Smedley Hepplewhite in reply to JHogan. | September 8, 2022 at 6:48 am

    We have the opportunity to tell Brandon to,FO this November.

Just add more solar panels. I’m sure those would help Finland this winter.

    healthguyfsu in reply to malclave. | September 7, 2022 at 10:27 pm

    Finland actually has a good bit of nuclear and thermal plants. They’ve pretty much perfected the art of incineration of trash for energy.

    This economist happens to be from Finland, but I believe he is talking more about other parts of Europe (ahem Germany and France, if the latter continues to abandon nuclear).

This was all brought to us by Joe Biden, the Committee that runs him, and the Teleprompter.
Had we a straight Election, our real President would have prevented all of this.

    The Gentle Grizzly in reply to snowshooze. | September 8, 2022 at 12:13 pm

    Yes, because it always falls to the USA, with our blood and treasure, to pull Europe’s irons out of the fire. They prove their gratitude by spitting in our eye. Isn’t it time to say “no” for once? We have our own problems.

    (None of the downticks are mine.)

    clintack in reply to snowshooze. | September 8, 2022 at 1:29 pm

    History will record that it was all the fault of Orange Man Bad.

I love the quote.
It is the absolute truth.

no meaningful interest in banks

It’s far worse than that. European banks are paying negative interest i.e. they charge you for the privilege of holding your cash.

On our shores, the question is, when are Dumb-o-crat voters going to wake up and realize how utterly and callously destructive and foolish these “green” energy policies are, and, when will they exact an electoral punishment on the vile and callous Dumb-o-crat apparatchiks who proffer them? I won’t be waiting with bated breath.

    Colonel Travis in reply to guyjones. | September 7, 2022 at 11:04 pm

    You cannot be a Democrat now and think otherwise. It’s all about “sacrifice” and forcing everyone else to their level of misery. They do not think like we do. They do not think, period. They emote. You cannot reason with someone who has none, who has no meaning in life except allegiance to The State. That kind of a mindset is virtually impossible to change. Even if they end up suffering, enough will justify it for the greater good.

    This country has never seen such an opposition before, I don’t think enough people understand how dangerous it is.

    Oh, that could never happen here.

    Uh huh.

    gonzotx in reply to guyjones. | September 7, 2022 at 11:07 pm

    There are more democrats in my neighborhood than last year, we have had a huge turn over after the housing market went crazy, prices doubled amd peole sold

    To liberal asshats.

      txvet2 in reply to gonzotx. | September 8, 2022 at 5:15 pm

      When I moved to my present home, I was 20 miles from the San Antonio suburbs. Right now, they’re building a high density subdivision on my back property line. Pretty much all Californians, who are not only willing, but eager, to pay twice what a house is worth. When I moved here 22 years ago, the first election I took part in went 9-1 Republican. This year’s primary was about 1-1, due to the influx of out-of-staters – but Californians claim we’re responsible for all of their problems.

The Finnish guy’s list omitted two really important things: firearms and ammo. Yeah, we’re talking about Europe, but where there’s a will, there’s a way.

Way too many people think it can’t happen here. In the west we are interdependent to a great degree. I may laugh at the stupid feckless germans/europeans, and I do, but I know that we are just one small step right behind them. An economy in free fall over there will fell ours over here. And in the modern world, it may very well make the depression in the late 1920’s look like a gala.

Prepare as best you can.

They should just build a few more windmills.

That’ll fix everything.

I was wondering when Ha-shem would unleash divine justice on the Euro-Nazis/Commies for the Holocaust and their attempts to destroy Israel.

It looks like he is finally delivering.

    “Who shall live, and who shall die…

    Who shall go bankrupt, and who shall remainest solvent…

    Pardon us, Forgive us, Grant us atonement!”

I’ve been a prepper to some degree since }The Blizzard of ’78” in Boston where the state was closed for two weeks just after moving their. I greatly expanded that 2-week reserve upon moving to CA due to earthquakes. Homeland Security has been recommending at least 3 months prep no matter where you live. Since the Bush/Obama years with all of the economic chaos they have unleashed on us, I’ve taken the possibility of collapse more and more seriously so I’ve been stocked for a while.

But after that cautionary post, I reviewed my reserves and found a few problems with spoilage and gaps. Anything in cans that is acidic or lactic will spoil sooner than you think so I had to throw out of few things. And when I prepared a long-term schedule to see how long my supplies might last, I found gaps. I have been addressing those gaps and will soon be prepared for at least 9 months, maybe up to a year depending on how many people I have to help and whether there will be some government relief efforts.

The big problem is water. At some point, there is never enough water. But the way I see it, anything that lasts more than 3 months would signify a major catastrophe requiring a plan B while I still have supplies.

I stopped telling people about my prepping years ago when I realized I am setting myself up for bad things when SHTF. I don’t want to be a zombie magnet. If people aren’t prepared by now, God help them.

    Evil Otto in reply to Pasadena Phil. | September 8, 2022 at 6:20 am

    LifeStraw makes a couple of gravity-feed water filters (available on Amazon) that will last for months and supply thousands of gallons (so long as they’re cared for). Combined with other methods of water purification they should get you through with enough drinking water, unless you live in a dry area.

      Way ahead of you. It’s not about filtering and I have good filters. It’s about having water. I have a pool I can use for washing and flushing. I live in SoCal which is desert land with the state government intentionally draining rivers and reservoirs into the ocean. We are sitting on a massive aquifer here but…. I am probably good for 3-4 months but then it’s plan B. I do have friends who are also prepared and I wouldn’t be arriving empty-handed so I am confident that if I can get there….

      BTW, not that I am an expert, but LifeStraw is very good for hiking and camping and I have a couple of them. There are several alternatives these days for base camp gravity-feed filters and I don’t know which is best but Katadyn (which is my go-to option) has been among the very best forever. When SHTF, I will be filtering 1-2 gallons per day to maintain my reserves. That only takes about 5-ten minutes with my hand pump filter. If I travel, LifeFilter straws would be my choice on the move. There may be better ways to do this and I am always open to them but for now, that is where I am.

    alaskabob in reply to Pasadena Phil. | September 8, 2022 at 11:18 am

    Every area has some critical resource… in Alaska… warmth. In So Cal ..water. I just finished putting solar on the Cali house… 8 kW, 21 panels and 4 PowerWalls. Water… well… the swimming pool and 5 55-gal drums of water… but with the solar energy I have the opportunity to buy a condenser to pull water out of the atmosphere… nothing big… upwards of 5 gallons a day … thinking 2 gal for SoCal. $800 for the unit. As has been written about… the real issue is the golden herd that will sweep across like locusts as their concerns shift from pleasure and ease in this Workers’ Paradise to survival (at someone else’s cost).

    Neighbors? Well pretty blue in the neighborhood so really can’t say or outwardly do much. One has the look of a prepper if you know what to look for but a Trump basher and Best Friends are deep blue. Wheat versus chaff some day soon.

      txvet2 in reply to alaskabob. | September 8, 2022 at 5:21 pm

      “”the real issue is the golden herd””

      Seems to be the factor that a lot of preppers overlook – the hordes of looters that will descend on anybody who has anything.

    artichoke in reply to Pasadena Phil. | September 8, 2022 at 12:41 pm

    Can you sink a well? Even in an area served by piped water, nothing physically prevents you from putting in a well. There are even manual pumps, but easiest is an electric pump and you have a generator with fuel if needed.

    There may be legal restrictions though, and drilling a well requires heavy equipment. I understand that now, knowing how hard it was to drill 4 foot holes in the ground for fenceposts using a powered auger. 4 feet is a lot different from 2 feet, and going 100 feet or more is much harder.

It is time to vocalize our threat.
If your treason results in my misery, I will hunt you for the rest of my life.
God have mercy on you.

To an extent, the only thing I have to say is “good”. With the struggle we may see the luxury opinions of the last few years evaporate. Enforcing DEI isn’t a priority when the next meal is on the line. Suddenly family is important, if not essential. People will have to tie good choices to good outcomes again out of necessity. Don’t get me wrong, it will be hell, but a sadly necessary one if the west is to survive. The inflection point between a renewal of western values and completing our transformation into a neo-soviet nightmare.

The Green Raw Deal is kicking in. Coming to a neighborhood near you soon.

Cue the smirking Germans!!

The Left is quite literally on a suicide mission. However, they, like a suicide bomber, want to take us all with them.

And they won’t have any crickets to eat in the winter

Start your cricket farm right now, we got a deal for you!!!

The Europeans are rapidly approaching the point of no return. Either they prioritize their Citizens or they prioritize Ukraine. If they convince Russia to restore flows of Nat gas the immediate energy problem is solved. That would require the Europeans to climb down from their high horse and make a deal that Russia would be willing to accept. The price on that is escalating daily.

Obviously that doesn’t fix the long-term problem but their goal should be on getting past March without idling their manufacturing base, their citizens dying in the cold or a widespread movement to replace the govt. I don’t believe that the average European is going to be comforted with a Ukrainian flag lapel pin in place of reliable energy as winter sets in.

Their current plan/goal to replace Russian Nat gas with American Nat gas simply trades dependency. The environmental whackos here already oppose any efforts to complete pipeline projects to move gas to LNG facilities for export. The facilities to receive the LNG at scale don’t exist in Europe nor interconnected pipelines nor do sufficient export facilities in the US. The environmental whackos will oppose them as will leftist politicians and their allies.

    Dimsdale in reply to CommoChief. | September 8, 2022 at 8:53 am

    After a couple of months of the Russian squeeze, the environmental whackos should be persona non grata to the populace.

    Like the Brandon regime (the Fourth Reich after that last speech), letting (reluctantly) the left follow through is the best evidence of their economic ignorance. All of us will have to suffer through it.

    Let us hope we don’t have to descend to Venezuela status to learn the lesson.

    artichoke in reply to CommoChief. | September 8, 2022 at 12:46 pm

    I never thought I would be an “environmental whacko”, but I’m for piped gas and against LNG in general. There are many types of power available, and if nothing else there’s nuclear. Expecting us to bottle up our NG and ship it across the ocean, and then they uncompress it (dangerous), really is a solution in search of a problem.

    Here’s an idea. Until Europe has an alternative (say, nukes) it could stop fighting the country that supplies it with fuel.

    I understand there are now demonstrations on the streets in European countries demanding they drop out of NATO and its crazy suicidal strategies.

    “Their current plan/goal to replace Russian Nat gas with American Nat gas simply trades dependency. ”

    Well, no, not quite an even trade. While I’m in favor of not sending an ounce of gas to europe, they are much better off to be in bed with us than the russians. In the case of the feckless eu it may not matter though.

“The situation in Europe is much worse than many understand.”

Maybe they should get together and form some kind of Union so they could help each other.

The good thing here is, we have our own energy. And as Biden’s handlers have done, when the price gets too high, and their voters start noticing and yelling, they address it.

So self-preservation will probably help us here.

“leaving those countries vulnerable to a gas cut off, which Putin now is implementing as retaliation for Ukraine sanctions.”

I don’t think that’s a fair characterization. Put yourself in Russia’s shoes. The NATO countries are supporting the other side in the ongoing war, including sending weapons and money. Also, price limits for Russian gas — why should Russia sell at less than the market price? And yet, they’ll still sell at least in some cases, for those who pay in Russian currency. Buy from Russia, pay in Russian money.

Is any of this unreasonable?

A hungry man is an angry man.

We gonna be burnin’ and lootin’ tonight.

I’m amazed that no one is pointing out that our energy policy has created this disaster. President Trump warned Germany about becoming dependent on natural gas and fossil fuels and Joe Biden’s energy policy has made that dependence almost impossible to avoid. Things can be shutdown really fast, but bringing back up again takes a lot of time.

My note to this Finnish Economist;
We knew it.